Vince Reilly

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 160 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	ACHC	32	0	53	3.88	2.48	23.2%	6.7%	—	K 17.2% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.35
2025	24	A+CHC	29	0	29	4.91	2.96	18.4%	8.1%	—	K 14.2% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.54
2026	25	MIX2 levels	41	1	58	5.15	4.57	25.0%	12.5%	—	K 20.6% · BB 12.7% · FIP 5.19
2027PROJ	26	MLBCHC	32	0	34	5.05	5.05	19.5%	11.3%	-0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCHC	18	0	19	5.00	5.01	19.9%	11.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCHC	29	0	30	5.01	5.05	20.1%	11.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJosh Zeid (age 26) · Francisco Rodriguez (age 27) · Casey Fien (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%19.5%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	4	0	5	22	6	2	1	0%	1.2	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	4.5%	3.86	4.44	—
2023	22	A RAW	Stockton Ports	4	0	5	22	6	2	1	0%	1.2	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	4.5%	3.86	4.60	—
2024	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	32	0	53	224	52	15	2	0%	1.7	17.2%	7.9%	9.3%	1.3%	3.88	3.35	—
2024	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	32	0	53	224	52	15	2	0%	1.7	17.2%	7.9%	9.3%	1.3%	3.88	3.35	—
2024	23	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	32	0	53	224	52	15	2	0%	1.7	23.2%	6.7%	16.5%	0.9%	3.88	2.48	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	29	0	29	136	25	11	1	0%	1.0	14.2%	9.3%	4.9%	0.8%	4.91	3.54	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	29	0	29	136	25	11	1	0%	1.0	14.2%	9.3%	4.9%	0.8%	4.91	3.54	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	29	0	29	136	25	11	1	0%	1.0	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	0.7%	4.91	2.96	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	58	256	64	32	9	2%	1.4	20.6%	12.7%	7.8%	4.0%	5.15	5.19	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	58	256	64	32	9	2%	1.4	20.6%	12.7%	7.8%	4.0%	5.15	5.19	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	58	256	64	32	9	2%	1.4	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	3.5%	5.15	4.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CHC	32	0	34	144	28	16	5	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.3%	8.2%	3.3%	5.05	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	49	0	51	216	43	24	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.2%	8.7%	3.3%	5.00	5.01	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	47	0	50	209	42	23	7	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.2%	8.9%	3.4%	5.01	5.05	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	18	0	19	80	16	9	3	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.2%	8.7%	3.3%	5.00	5.01	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	29	0	30	127	25	14	4	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.2%	8.9%	3.4%	5.01	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	49	206	41	23	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.2%	8.8%	3.3%	5.01	4.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	94	29	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.2%	8.8%	3.3%	5.01	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		106	1	145	638	116	65	15	1%	1.4	18.2%	10.2%	8.1%	2.4%	4.59	4.16	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	1	200	880	161	90	21	1%	1.4	18.2%	10.2%	8.1%	2.4%	4.59	4.16	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Vince Reilly (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	19.5%	11.3%	3.3%	—	5.03	20.0%	8.8%	101	-0.02	—	—	—
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	89
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	88
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	88
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	88
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	88
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	87
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	86
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	86
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	85
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	85
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	85
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	85
Zach Bryant R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	26	SU	4.85	18.0%	9.6%	3.7%	.313	4.87	16.1%	5.0%	106	+0.02	4.51	215	85
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	84
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Ryan Middendorf R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	19.1%	9.0%	4.0%	.293	4.41	12.7%	-1.1%	34	-0.43	1.27	164	84
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	19.9%	11.2%	1.28	5.02
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*