Peyton Williams
1B Vancouver Canadians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 443 | .291/.372/.477 | 14 | 0 | 94 | — | .241/.306/.378 |
| 2025 | 24 | AATOR | 329 | .217/.281/.353 | 9 | 0 | 41 | — | .185/.232/.292 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AA/A+/ATOR | 461 | .274/.365/.477 | 16 | 1 | 82 | — | .225/.295/.387 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBTOR | 1 | .204/.266/.338 | 0 | 0 | 69 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ26% MLB | 27 | MLBTOR | 59 | .205/.268/.339 | 1 | 0 | 70 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 123 | 99 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 385 | 333 | 719 | 91 | 338 | 27 | 17 | 336 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 147 | 129 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 329 | 434 | 763 | 194 | 279 | 25 | 9 | 339 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 192 | 164 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 41 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 274 | 374 | 476 | 849 | 201 | 322 | 21 | 11 | 374 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 334 | 294 | 85 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 76 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 367 | 476 | 843 | 187 | 351 | 23 | 10 | 369 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | — | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 625 | 600 | 1.225 | 200 | 444 | 6 | 31 | 538 | 148 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 93 | 84 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 348 | 464 | 812 | 179 | 356 | 25 | 9 | 355 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 329 | 300 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 105 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 281 | 353 | 635 | 137 | 298 | 32 | 8 | 284 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 84 | 79 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 321 | 430 | 752 | 152 | 339 | 24 | 6 | 334 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 15 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 467 | 727 | 1.194 | 455 | 400 | 33 | 20 | 498 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 324 | 279 | 74 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 68 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 265 | 359 | 470 | 829 | 204 | 309 | 21 | 11 | 363 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 38 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 345 | 472 | 586 | 1.058 | 241 | 409 | 21 | 16 | 437 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 123 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 320 | 302 | 622 | 85 | 320 | 36 | 11 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 147 | 133 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 49 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 260 | 301 | 561 | 113 | 254 | 33 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 192 | 172 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 55 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 215 | 289 | 343 | 632 | 128 | 281 | 29 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 334 | 304 | 72 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 105 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 297 | 372 | 669 | 135 | 319 | 31 | 7 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 16 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 500 | 500 | 1.000 | 167 | 322 | 6 | 19 | 387 | 148 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 329 | 308 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 133 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 232 | 292 | 525 | 107 | 285 | 40 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 84 | 80 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 262 | 325 | 587 | 100 | 305 | 29 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 15 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 400 | 667 | 1.067 | 417 | 325 | 40 | 13 | 379 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 324 | 291 | 62 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 92 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 284 | 371 | 656 | 158 | 265 | 28 | 8 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 38 | 31 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 323 | 417 | 548 | 965 | 226 | 351 | 29 | 11 | 374 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 123 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 320 | 302 | 622 | 85 | 344 | 36 | 11 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 123 | 99 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 385 | 333 | 719 | 91 | 338 | 27 | 17 | 336 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 305 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 103 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 207 | 280 | 338 | 617 | 131 | 276 | 30 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 339 | 293 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 14 | 34 | 78 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 259 | 354 | 457 | 812 | 198 | 304 | 23 | 10 | 359 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 443 | 401 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 134 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 301 | 369 | 670 | 132 | 324 | 30 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 443 | 388 | 113 | 26 | 2 | 14 | 48 | 100 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 291 | 372 | 477 | 849 | 186 | 355 | 23 | 11 | 372 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 329 | 308 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 133 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 232 | 292 | 525 | 107 | 294 | 40 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 329 | 300 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 105 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 281 | 353 | 635 | 137 | 298 | 32 | 8 | 284 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 461 | 414 | 92 | 23 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 133 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 292 | 374 | 667 | 152 | 291 | 29 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 461 | 398 | 109 | 29 | 2 | 16 | 51 | 101 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 274 | 365 | 477 | 842 | 204 | 324 | 22 | 11 | 368 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 123 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 320 | 302 | 622 | 85 | 320 | 36 | 11 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 305 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 103 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 207 | 280 | 338 | 617 | 131 | 269 | 30 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 443 | 403 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 134 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 301 | 367 | 669 | 132 | 319 | 30 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 329 | 307 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 133 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 232 | 293 | 526 | 107 | 285 | 40 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 461 | 417 | 92 | 23 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 133 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 292 | 372 | 664 | 151 | 281 | 29 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 443 | 403 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 134 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 301 | 367 | 669 | 132 | 319 | 30 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 329 | 307 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 133 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 232 | 293 | 526 | 107 | 285 | 40 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 461 | 417 | 92 | 23 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 133 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 292 | 372 | 664 | 151 | 281 | 29 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | TOR | 0% | 380 | 348 | 71 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 118 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 204 | 266 | 337 | 603 | 134 | 275 | 31 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -14 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +8 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | TOR | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 266 | 338 | 604 | 134 | 276 | 0 | 0 | 270 | 69 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | TOR | 26% | 225 | 205 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 69 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 267 | 338 | 605 | 133 | 275 | 31 | 7 | 271 | 70 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | TOR | 26% | 59 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 268 | 339 | 606 | 134 | 276 | 31 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 59 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 237 | 273 | 510 | 91 | 250 | 31 | 7 | 272 | 71 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 606 | 110 | 22 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 198 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 237 | 272 | 509 | 91 | 249 | 30 | 7 | 272 | 71 | -24 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2075 | 1881 | 402 | 83 | 7 | 50 | 151 | 664 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 214 | 280 | 345 | 625 | 131 | 297 | 32 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -14 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +8 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 126 | 26 | 2 | 16 | 47 | 208 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 280 | 346 | 626 | 132 | 296 | 32 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -24 | +1 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 324 PAwOBA .358 → .282 (−76)K% 21.0% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.99% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 28.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 7.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.019 | ×0.968 | 17.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×0.968 | 8.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×0.968 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 4.19% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .358 → .282; ISO .204 → .160; BABIP .309 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 84 PAwOBA .325 → .262 (−63)K% 23.8% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 25.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 4.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.62% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .325 → .262; ISO .152 → .108; BABIP .339 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 38 PAwOBA .450 → .374 (−76)K% 21.1% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 10.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 25.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 7.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 4.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 3.66% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .450 → .374; ISO .241 → .208; BABIP .409 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 15 PAwOBA .486 → .379 (−106)K% 33.3% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 13.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.67% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 5.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 28.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 12.84% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .486 → .379; ISO .455 → .364; BABIP .400 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 329 PAwOBA .277 → .229 (−48)K% 31.9% → 40.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.91% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.60% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.30% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.05% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×1.048 | ×0.998 | 21.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷1.030 | ×0.860 | ×1.048 | ×0.998 | 5.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷0.997 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | ×0.998 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.62% | ÷0.885 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.06% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 99, K 93, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .277 → .229; ISO .137 → .110; BABIP .298 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 334 PAwOBA .364 → .290 (−73)K% 22.8% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.75% | ÷0.980 | ×1.350 | — | — | 31.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.48% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.30% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.31% | ÷0.964 | ×0.910 | ×1.039 | ×0.988 | 23.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.17% | ÷1.071 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×0.988 | 7.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.46% | ÷0.936 | ×0.820 | ×1.039 | ×0.988 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.05% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 3.90% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 93, 2B 114, 3B 87, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .364 → .290; ISO .187 → .137; BABIP .351 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 16 PAwOBA .526 → .387 (−139)K% 6.2% → 8.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.009 | ×1.440 | — | — | 8.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 31.25% | ÷1.042 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 17.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 4.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.016 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 17.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.012 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 15.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .526 → .387; ISO .200 → .167; BABIP .444 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADunedin Blue Jays · 192 PAwOBA .368 → .279 (−89)K% 21.4% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.35% | ÷1.018 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.94% | ÷1.062 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.60% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.95% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.990 | 20.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.13% | ÷1.034 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×0.990 | 6.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.111 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×0.990 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.69% | ÷1.279 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 3.53% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 122, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .368 → .279; ISO .201 → .135; BABIP .322 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .