Shane Gray prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Shane Gray P Tampa Tarpons

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%22.0%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.94	—
2022	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	61	272	70	23	10	0%	1.5	19.3%	9.9%	9.4%	4.5%	5.46	5.18	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	61	272	70	23	10	0%	1.5	19.3%	9.9%	9.4%	4.5%	5.46	5.18	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	61	272	70	23	10	0%	1.5	25.7%	8.5%	17.3%	3.7%	5.46	4.07	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	3.1%	4.50	4.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYY	40	0	42	178	39	17	6	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.6%	12.6%	3.1%	4.51	4.52	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYY	14	0	15	63	14	6	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.6%	12.6%	3.1%	4.51	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	15	65	14	6	2	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.6%	12.6%	3.1%	4.51	4.14	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	78	26	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.6%	12.6%	3.1%	4.51	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		41	0	62	277	53	28	12	0%	1.5	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	4.4%	5.37	5.16	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	894	173	90	39	0%	1.5	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	4.4%	5.37	5.16	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	22.0%	9.5%	3.1%	—	4.52	22.1%	12.6%	42	+0.02	—	—	—
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	91
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	90
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	90
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	89
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	89
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	88
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	88
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	88
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	88
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	653	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Scott Dohmann R 2004 · 4.44 FIP	26	SU	4.44	24.7%	9.6%	4.0%	.270	4.80	20.6%	8.5%	112	+0.36	4.28	173	87
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	87
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	22.5%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.86	4.73	183	86
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	86
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	86
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	85
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	85
Cale Coshow R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	26	SU	4.59	23.1%	10.9%	3.8%	.300	3.68	23.0%	12.8%	63	-0.91	3.08	377	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.19	4.50
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10