Hoss Brewer — OGILVIE

Hoss Brewer P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.16

FIP4.16

K%19.8%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2024	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2024	23	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	56	228	58	13	1	2%	1.4	19.1%	6.6%	12.5%	0.5%	2.09	2.60	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	56	228	58	13	1	2%	1.4	19.1%	6.6%	12.5%	0.5%	2.09	2.60	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	1	56	228	58	13	1	2%	1.4	25.4%	5.7%	19.7%	0.4%	2.09	1.96	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	28	1	33	153	35	15	5	4%	1.2	17.6%	11.3%	6.3%	4.1%	4.36	5.28	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	28	1	33	153	35	15	5	4%	1.2	17.6%	11.3%	6.3%	4.1%	4.36	5.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	NYM	28	1	33	153	35	15	5	4%	1.2	22.9%	9.8%	13.1%	3.3%	4.36	4.20	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYM	48	0	50	213	44	15	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	7.2%	13.3%	2.7%	4.16	4.14	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYM	47	0	50	209	43	16	6	0%	1.1	20.7%	7.5%	13.3%	2.8%	4.19	4.19	+0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYM	21	0	22	93	19	7	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	7.2%	13.3%	2.7%	4.16	4.14	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYM	30	0	31	131	27	10	4	0%	1.0	20.7%	7.5%	13.3%	2.8%	4.19	4.19	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	53	223	46	16	6	0%	1.1	20.7%	7.4%	13.3%	2.7%	4.18	3.79	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	61	23	0%	1.1	20.7%	7.4%	13.3%	2.7%	4.18	3.79	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		69	2	91	387	72	32	7	3%	1.3	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	1.9%	2.87	3.65	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	4	200	851	157	71	16	3%	1.3	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	1.9%	2.87	3.65	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hoss Brewer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	19.8%	7.1%	2.7%	—	4.16	20.6%	13.3%	100	+0.00	—	—	—
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	91
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	90
Joe Colón J R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	19.4%	7.4%	1.6%	.312	4.07	20.7%	7.8%	65	+0.80	3.27	113	89
Matt Carasiti R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.36	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.32	2.80	312	89
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	88
Daniel Corcino R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.2%	7.5%	3.2%	.238	4.76	19.4%	8.2%	263	+0.39	3.84	299	87
Andres Avila R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	16.0%	5.2%	2.9%	.316	4.13	20.3%	13.9%	73	+0.15	3.98	177	87
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	87
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	86
Colton Hock R 2021 · 3.77 FIP	25	SU	3.77	21.3%	7.2%	2.8%	.304	3.83	17.7%	11.7%	60	+0.06	3.29	253	86
Ronnie Shaban R 2015 · 3.02 FIP	25	SU	3.02	18.6%	5.0%	1.6%	.268	4.32	14.1%	8.8%	55	+1.30	3.02	104	86
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	86
Seth Frankoff R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	26	SU	4.01	19.6%	7.4%	2.9%	.312	4.29	20.0%	11.3%	177	+0.28	2.88	263	86
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	85
Michael Blazek R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	26	SU	2.99	21.2%	7.7%	1.3%	.239	4.20	16.6%	6.3%	126	+1.21	2.99	221	85
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	85
Cole Johnson R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.4%	1.5%	.311	3.61	14.0%	9.2%	49	+0.09	3.52	101	85
John Brebbia R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.346	3.20	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.91	2.89	575	85
Ryan Halstead R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	25	SU	3.30	18.6%	4.9%	2.1%	.343	3.63	17.0%	9.9%	120	+0.33	3.12	222	85
Ryan Kelly R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.21	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.31	2.49	131	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	20.4%	7.3%	1.05	4.17
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86