Justin Lawson

P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 198 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	35	1	63	2.43	3.31	21.6%	11.0%	—	K 16.1% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.00
2025	24	A+NYM	8	0	11	5.73	2.10	22.7%	6.8%	—	K 22.7% · BB 6.8% · FIP 2.04
2027PROJ	26	MLBNYM	41	0	43	4.71	4.71	21.0%	10.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBNYM	15	0	16	4.69	4.71	21.2%	10.8%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJesus Pirela (age 26) · Ronald Peña (age 26) · Jose Rafael De Paula (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%21.0%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP43

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	63	255	55	28	3	3%	1.8	16.1%	12.9%	3.1%	1.1%	2.43	4.00	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	63	255	55	28	3	3%	1.8	16.1%	12.9%	3.1%	1.1%	2.43	4.00	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	1	63	255	55	28	3	3%	1.8	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	1.2%	2.43	3.31	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	8	0	11	44	10	3	0	0%	1.4	22.7%	6.8%	15.9%	0.0%	5.73	2.04	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	8	0	11	44	10	3	0	0%	1.4	22.7%	6.8%	15.9%	0.0%	5.73	2.04	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	8	0	11	44	10	3	0	0%	1.4	22.7%	6.8%	15.9%	0.0%	5.73	2.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	NYM	41	0	43	182	38	20	5	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.9%	10.0%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYM	40	0	42	179	38	19	5	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.71	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYM	15	0	16	68	14	7	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	65	14	7	2	0%	1.0	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.33	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	90	26	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		43	1	74	299	51	36	3	2%	1.7	17.1%	12.0%	5.0%	1.0%	2.92	3.71	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	3	200	808	138	97	8	2%	1.7	17.1%	12.0%	5.0%	1.0%	2.92	3.71	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Lawson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	21.0%	10.9%	2.9%	—	4.71	21.2%	10.4%	42	+0.00	—	—	—
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	90
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	89
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	89
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	88
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	88
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	87
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	87
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	87
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	86
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	86
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	86
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	85
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	85
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	85
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	85
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	85
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	85
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	653	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Jack Hartman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	26	SU	4.34	20.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.310	4.29	17.6%	5.6%	46	-0.05	3.46	161	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	43	21.1%	10.9%	1.15	4.70
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*