Justin Lawson
P
Brooklyn Cyclones
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 198 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.0%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 35 | 1 | 63 | 255 | 55 | 28 | 3 | 16.1% | 12.9% | 1.2% | 2.43 | 4.03 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 8 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.73 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 57 | 26 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 58 | 26 | 7 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 58 | 25 | 7 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 57 | 25 | 7 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 59 | — | 59 | 247 | 55 | 25 | 7 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 53 | 24 | 7 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 48 | 23 | 7 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 45 | 22 | 7 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 42 | 21 | 7 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 39 | 21 | 7 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 20.1% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 5.08 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 1 | 74 | 299 | 51 | 36 | 3 | 17.1% | 12.0% | 1.0% | 2.92 | 3.74 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 3 | 200 | 808 | 138 | 97 | 8 | 17.1% | 12.0% | 1.0% | 2.92 | 3.74 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Lawson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.42 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 182 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 94 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 93 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 93 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 91 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 90 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 90 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.0% | .331 | 4.32 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 122 | +0.00 | 3.48 | 290 | 89 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 89 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 89 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.60 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.45 | 3.20 | 386 | 88 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.97 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .255 | 4.63 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.66 | 3.16 | 253 | 88 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 88 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.08 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 3.84 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 73 | -0.24 | 3.84 | 206 | 88 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 88 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.64 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .250 | 3.83 | 24.1% | 12.5% | 118 | +0.19 | 1.48 | 230 | 88 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.99 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | .272 | 5.30 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.31 | 4.99 | 105 | 88 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 88 |
| Grant Hartwig R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.84 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .330 | 3.91 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 61 | +0.07 | 2.52 | 179 | 87 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .232 | 4.70 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 139 | +0.45 | 3.60 | 246 | 87 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 156 | -0.11 | 2.79 | 280 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $5M | -$6M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.