Justin Lawson
P
Brooklyn Cyclones
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 198 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%21.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 1 | 63 | 255 | 55 | 28 | 3 | 3% | 1.8 | 16.1% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 2.43 | 3.87 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 1 | 63 | 255 | 55 | 28 | 3 | 3% | 1.8 | 21.6% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 1.2% | 2.43 | 3.31 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 8 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.7% | 6.8% | 15.9% | 0.0% | 5.73 | 2.04 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 8 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.7% | 6.8% | 15.9% | 0.0% | 5.73 | 2.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.01 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 184 | 87 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 1 | 74 | 299 | 51 | 36 | 2 | 2% | 1.7 | 17.1% | 12.0% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 2.92 | 3.60 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 3 | 200 | 808 | 138 | 97 | 6 | 2% | 1.7 | 17.1% | 12.0% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 2.92 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Lawson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.39 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 43 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 93 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 91 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 90 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 90 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 89 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 89 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .286 | 6.43 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 24 | +2.19 | 4.09 | 183 | 88 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.88 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 167 | +0.74 | 3.34 | 334 | 88 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.67 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 153 | 88 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 87 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.04 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.57 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.47 | 3.26 | 386 | 87 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.81 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .255 | 4.69 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.88 | 3.16 | 253 | 86 |
| Gavin Hollowell R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.35 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .273 | 3.78 | 28.1% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.57 | 2.30 | 208 | 86 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 86 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 86 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 86 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 86 |
| Carter Rustad R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 86 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 85 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 43 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 1.09 | 4.42 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |