Erick Alvarez

2B Hickory Crawdads

Age 22 R/R 5'10" / 150 lbs A HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	ADown East Woo…	250	.238/.275/.328	1	4	40	—	.210/.239/.282
2025	20	ATEX	152	.222/.333/.278	0	4	40	—	.188/.265/.226
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBTEX	262	.201/.265/.268	1	4	52	-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBTEX	52	.206/.271/.288	0	1	59	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 A

Whiff%88

Z-Con%84

K%71

BB%68

Chase%41

Speed41

CompsFelix Familia (age 22) · Franklin Tineo (age 22) · Dereck Salom (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 100 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .263 / .266

PA100

HR0

K%25

BB%7

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	187	55	8	4	4	15	26	6	15	6	294	365	444	809	150	325	12	7	362	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	44	37	7	2	0	0	6	10	0	1	0	189	302	243	546	54	250	23	14	256	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	96	82	16	5	1	0	12	22	2	1	2	195	312	280	593	85	267	23	12	280	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	235	56	12	3	1	10	61	2	4	0	238	275	328	603	89	312	24	4	268	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	126	28	7	0	0	21	30	0	4	1	222	333	278	611	56	280	20	14	281	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	191	35	5	2	2	11	33	6	15	6	183	250	262	512	79	211	16	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	44	39	7	2	0	0	4	13	0	1	0	179	256	231	487	51	244	30	9	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	96	86	11	3	1	0	8	34	2	1	2	128	219	186	405	58	208	35	8	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	238	50	10	2	1	7	81	2	4	0	210	239	282	520	71	304	32	3	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	133	25	5	0	0	14	42	0	4	1	188	265	226	491	38	249	28	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	191	35	5	2	2	11	33	6	15	6	183	250	262	512	79	212	16	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	187	55	8	4	4	15	26	6	15	6	294	365	444	809	150	325	12	7	362	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	140	125	18	5	1	0	12	47	2	2	2	144	230	200	430	56	228	34	9	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	140	119	23	7	1	0	18	32	2	2	2	193	309	269	578	76	261	23	13	273	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	238	50	10	2	1	7	81	2	4	0	210	239	282	520	71	308	32	3	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	235	56	12	3	1	10	61	2	4	0	238	275	328	603	89	312	24	4	268	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	133	25	5	0	0	14	42	0	4	1	188	265	226	491	38	263	28	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	126	28	7	0	0	21	30	0	4	1	222	333	278	611	56	280	20	14	281	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	189	35	5	2	2	11	33	6	15	6	185	250	265	515	79	211	16	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	140	125	18	5	1	0	12	47	2	2	2	144	230	200	430	56	219	34	9	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	239	50	10	2	1	7	81	2	4	0	209	239	280	519	71	304	32	3	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	137	25	5	0	0	14	42	0	4	1	182	265	219	484	36	249	28	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	239	50	10	2	1	7	81	2	4	0	209	239	280	519	71	304	32	3	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	137	25	5	0	0	14	42	0	4	1	182	265	219	484	36	249	28	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	262	239	49	10	2	1	19	66	2	4	1	201	265	268	533	68	269	25	7	245	52	-15	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	152	139	29	6	1	1	11	37	1	3	1	207	271	287	559	81	271	24	7	255	59	-7	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	52	48	9	2	0	0	4	13	0	1	0	206	271	288	559	81	270	25	8	255	59	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	52	48	9	2	0	0	4	13	0	1	0	188	250	229	479	42	257	25	8	255	41	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	600	113	25	0	0	50	162	0	12	0	188	251	230	481	42	258	25	8	255	41	-32	+2	+0	+2	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	1002	918	176	35	7	4	62	265	12	30	10	192	252	258	510	66	261	26	6	229	41	-13	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	115	23	5	3	40	172	8	19	6	193	253	263	517	70	262	26	6	229	41	-34	+2	+0	+2	+14	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Erick Alvarez (OGILVIE)	22	35	20	45	55	199/263/266	67	269	0	2	25%	7%	52	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Felix Familia 2021 · A	22	40	35→30	48→45	45	190/263/251	61	263	3	7	27%	8%	49	-2.4	205/257/265	60	293	4	4	29%	5%	49	-2.4	195/246/237	42	274	3	1	29%	5%	35	-1.1
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	34	36→40	46→50	48	162/233/224	62	208	4	10	23%	8%	32	-3.7	181/263/263	82	249	5	10	27%	9%	52	-2.2	164/271/256	91	205	6	12	21%	11%	53	-0.9
✕Dereck Salom 2023 · A	22	42	35→30	43→40	45	199/257/256	57	261	2	6	24%	6%	47	-2.6	196/277/252	56	263	3	5	24%	9%	55	-2.0	183/277/227	44	246	3	4	24%	11%	49	-1.4
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	37	37→30	46→55	50	177/256/249	71	223	4	9	21%	8%	46	-2.6	192/277/264	72	230	5	17	18%	10%	57	-1.8	176/273/236	60	201	6	25	15%	11%	49	-0.8
✕Luis Sanchez 2008 · A	21	37	36→30	45→40	45	179/256/239	60	261	4	7	31%	8%	44	-2.8	203/263/257	54	283	2	4	27%	7%	49	-2.4	198/256/242	45	274	1	2	26%	7%	41	-1.4
✕Nic Kent 2022 · A	22	43→45	36→40	47→50	41	202/261/271	69	278	3	9	27%	6%	52	-2.2	202/253/279	77	277	6	11	28%	5%	51	-2.3	212/272/301	89	289	8	9	28%	6%	60	-1.0
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	38→30	46→45	41	195/255/280	85	272	5	6	29%	6%	52	-2.2	197/255/281	84	276	6	9	29%	6%	52	-2.2	202/270/282	80	285	9	12	31%	7%	57	-0.4
✕Luis Pintor 2017 · A	22	43	35→30	50→45	44	204/262/264	60	266	2	10	23%	6%	51	-2.3	192/258/252	60	248	3	6	22%	6%	47	-2.6	177/247/227	50	227	3	5	22%	6%	35	-1.8
✕Alexis Wilson 2019 · A	22	40	38→40	48→30	45	194/260/273	78	263	5	4	27%	8%	53	-2.1	219/269/310	91	281	9	5	24%	6%	63	-1.3	222/267/302	80	270	10	1	21%	5%	58	-0.6
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	38	38→30	48→45	42	185/249/264	79	253	5	7	28%	6%	47	-2.6	199/274/279	80	289	6	6	31%	7%	59	-1.6	182/251/245	63	250	5	11	28%	7%	41	-0.8
✕Rehiner Cordova 2016 · A	22	44	34→30	51→40	42	208/266/256	47	291	2	7	28%	6%	50	-2.3	195/264/252	57	258	4	7	24%	8%	49	-2.4	151/236/158	7	192	0	2	19%	9%	15	-1.3
✕Cristo Arnal 2008 · A	22	42	36→30	48→50	45	197/252/259	61	249	3	12	22%	6%	45	-2.7	224/270/279	55	272	3	15	18%	5%	56	-1.9	232/278/269	37	276	2	19	16%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Melvin Santana 2014 · A	22	39	36→40	50	46	182/239/254	73	226	2	11	20%	6%	39	-3.1	197/245/272	75	270	3	11	26%	5%	45	-2.7	189/224/255	66	253	0	19	24%	4%	32	-0.7
✕Alex Gonzalez 2013 · A	22	42	34→30	48→60	51	194/275/247	53	247	1	12	21%	9%	53	-2.1	199/258/263	64	257	3	10	22%	6%	49	-2.4	178/220/221	43	220	3	13	20%	4%	21	-1.2
✕Daurys Mercedes 2012 · A	22	38	35→40	46→45	42	179/250/239	60	285	2	7	36%	8%	40	-3.0	178/242/245	67	330	3	6	43%	7%	39	-3.1	127/201/181	54	254	2	4	47%	7%	7	-1.7
✕Eduardo Torrealba 2021 · A	22	44	36→30	43→50	40	210/265/276	66	292	4	6	28%	6%	55	-2.0	219/273/295	76	269	6	14	20%	6%	62	-1.4	210/266/272	62	255	5	17	19%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Kenneth Betancourt 2022 · A	22	40→50	35→30	44→50	38	193/232/253	60	274	3	8	30%	5%	36	-3.4	236/279/307	71	306	4	9	23%	5%	66	-1.1	248/290/313	65	315	4	10	21%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Richard Rodriguez 2014 · A	21	39	33→30	48→50	50	179/243/218	39	217	1	14	17%	7%	33	-3.6	216/269/256	40	263	1	10	17%	7%	51	-2.3	204/262/219	15	241	0	11	14%	7%	38	-1.1
✕Carlos Rojas 2024 · A	22	42	36→30	49→30	55	195/287/264	69	237	3	5	18%	10%	62	-1.4	216/279/279	63	274	3	3	21%	7%	61	-1.5	218/278/268	51	272	3	0	20%	6%	56	-0.8
✕J.C. Millan 2018 · A	22	40	37→40	45→30	36	195/236/271	76	279	4	8	31%	4%	42	-2.9	220/267/316	96	272	9	6	22%	6%	64	-1.3	226/273/320	94	265	9	4	18%	6%	64	-0.5