Parker Carlson

P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 192 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX3 levels	44	3	61	4.40	3.90	20.4%	8.0%	—	K 16.1% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.62
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYM	38	0	40	4.72	4.72	18.1%	8.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYM	23	0	24	4.62	4.58	19.4%	8.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBNYM	35	0	37	4.55	4.52	20.2%	8.6%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsBlake Goldsberry (age 24) · Hueston Morrill (age 24) · Matt Pierpont (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%18.1%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	3	61	250	51	20	7	7%	1.4	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	3.3%	4.40	4.62	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	3	61	250	51	20	7	7%	1.4	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	3.3%	4.40	4.62	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	3	61	250	51	20	7	7%	1.4	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	2.8%	4.40	3.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYM	38	0	40	169	31	15	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	8.6%	9.4%	3.0%	4.72	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	53	0	56	236	46	20	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	3.0%	4.62	4.58	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	53	0	56	236	48	20	7	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	3.0%	4.55	4.52	+0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	52	0	55	233	47	20	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	8.7%	11.6%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	23	0	24	101	20	9	3	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	3.0%	4.62	4.58	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	35	0	37	156	31	13	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	3.0%	4.55	4.52	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	41	0	43	182	37	16	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	8.7%	11.6%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		99	0	104	438	88	38	13	0%	1.0	20.0%	8.6%	11.4%	3.0%	4.57	4.17	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	73	25	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.6%	11.4%	3.0%	4.57	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		44	3	61	250	40	21	8	7%	1.4	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	3.3%	4.40	4.62	0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	10	200	815	132	70	27	7%	1.4	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	3.3%	4.40	4.62	0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Parker Carlson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	18.1%	8.6%	3.0%	—	4.55	20.0%	11.4%	167	-0.17	—	—	—
Blake Goldsberry R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	16.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.267	4.51	23.6%	13.4%	75	+0.42	3.43	117	92
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	92
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	91
Brett McKinney R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	24	SU	4.79	17.1%	8.9%	3.6%	.335	4.02	18.1%	8.5%	129	-0.77	3.43	183	90
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	90
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.14	18.0%	8.1%	37	+0.79	4.32	152	90
Micah Dallas R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	18.7%	7.1%	3.0%	.273	4.34	17.8%	8.2%	104	+0.30	3.60	202	90
Brady Choban R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	23	SU	4.49	16.1%	8.8%	3.0%	.262	4.02	13.3%	4.1%	80	-0.47	3.59	131	89
Rob Griswold R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	16.8%	8.3%	3.2%	.244	4.34	12.5%	6.2%	144	-0.13	3.57	203	89
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	89
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	89
Andrew Cashner R 2010 · 4.51 FIP	23	SU	4.51	20.2%	10.1%	3.4%	.285	3.30	19.9%	13.0%	221	-1.21	2.94	1,185	88
James McDonald R 2009 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.3%	10.4%	2.1%	.283	4.16	20.4%	11.3%	414	+0.20	2.99	506	88
Nick Neumann R 2015 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	14.7%	7.0%	2.5%	.299	4.30	11.4%	3.9%	62	+0.21	3.68	107	88
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	88
Landon Beck R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	18.6%	8.6%	2.4%	.309	4.21	17.4%	8.7%	63	+0.30	3.53	186	88
Brian Glowicki R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	16.4%	8.3%	3.0%	.275	3.92	26.0%	14.1%	62	-0.49	2.31	189	88
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	17.7%	7.4%	1.9%	.303	4.09	16.6%	9.3%	92	+0.48	3.44	198	88
Stephen Villines R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.8%	8.5%	2.2%	.280	3.15	20.6%	14.7%	40	-0.81	2.14	156	88
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	88

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	52	19.6%	8.6%	1.18	4.60
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*