Jackson Kent

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 219 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	24	24	123	4.61	3.36	25.9%	7.5%	—	K 20.2% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.39
2026	23	MIX3 levels	28	27	131	4.34	3.57	24.3%	9.7%	2.9	K 21.3% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.92
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	7	7	40	4.46	4.42	20.5%	9.1%	0.5
2028PROJ84% MLB	25	MLBWSH	10	10	57	4.36	4.30	21.3%	8.6%	0.7
2029PROJ89% MLB	26	MLBWSH	11	11	66	4.30	4.26	21.6%	8.5%	0.9

Last 2 seasons WAR 2.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.244First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$5M2032Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo30

K%18

xwOBA vs15

Form6.35 ERA (proj 4.46) · K 15.9% (proj 20.5%) · BB 12.2% (proj 9.1%) ▼▼ last 60d · 17 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.3 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 70%

CompsMarc Rzepczynski (age 24) · Austin Emener (age 22) · Cliff Lee (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.46

FIP4.42

K%20.5%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p4023.8%

p1817.6%

xwOBA vs

p150.353

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.244 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$14M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	123	509	132	38	14	100%	5.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.5%	4.61	4.39	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	123	509	132	38	14	100%	5.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.5%	4.61	4.39	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	123	509	132	38	14	100%	5.1	25.9%	7.5%	18.5%	2.8%	4.61	3.36	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	27	131	556	135	54	13	96%	4.7	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	2.6%	4.34	3.92	+2.3
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	27	131	556	135	54	13	96%	4.7	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	2.6%	4.34	3.92	+2.3
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	27	131	556	135	54	13	96%	4.7	24.3%	9.7%	14.6%	2.3%	4.34	3.57	+2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	7	36	170	30	25	2	88%	4.5	17.6%	14.7%	2.9%	1.2%	5.94	4.23	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	7	7	40	169	35	15	5	100%	5.7	20.5%	9.1%	11.4%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	68	289	62	25	8	100%	5.7	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	2.8%	4.36	4.30	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	75	315	68	27	9	100%	6.2	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.30	4.26	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	74	314	68	27	9	100%	6.2	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.9%	4.30	4.30	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	71	299	64	26	9	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.35	4.38	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	60	255	53	23	8	100%	6.0	20.9%	8.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.47	4.54	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	48	203	41	19	7	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	3.3%	4.64	4.75	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	6	6	36	151	29	14	5	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	3.5%	4.85	4.98	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	4	4	25	105	20	10	4	100%	6.2	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.8%	5.08	5.24	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	57	241	51	21	7	100%	5.7	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	2.8%	4.36	4.30	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	66	279	60	24	8	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.30	4.26	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	68	287	62	25	8	100%	6.2	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.9%	4.30	4.30	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	66	279	60	24	8	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.35	4.38	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	56	236	50	21	7	100%	6.2	20.9%	8.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.47	4.54	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	46	194	39	18	6	100%	5.8	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	3.3%	4.64	4.75	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	34	144	28	14	5	100%	5.7	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	3.5%	4.85	4.98	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	4	4	24	101	19	10	4	100%	6.0	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.8%	5.08	5.24	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	77	453	1928	399	181	56	99%	5.8	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	2.9%	4.58	4.12	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	852	176	80	25	99%	5.8	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	2.9%	4.58	4.12	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		52	51	254	1065	221	96	32	98%	4.9	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.15	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	840	175	75	25	98%	4.9	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.15	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 64 IPFIP 3.62 → 3.98 (+0.36)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.84%	—	×0.900	7.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.28%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 31 IPFIP 2.63 → 3.52 (+0.88)K% 32.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.20%	—	×0.810	26.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.100	7.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.05%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.63 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 94 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.24 (+1.02)K% 25.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.06%	—	×0.770	19.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.46%	—	×1.150	7.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷0.967	×1.250	3.34%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 29 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.86 (+1.04)K% 28.7% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.69%	—	×0.810	23.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.66%	—	×1.100	11.72%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷0.963	×1.200	4.09%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Kent (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.29	21.5%	13.0%	218	-0.13	—	—	—
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	85
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	83
Cliff Lee L 2003 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	21.0%	9.0%	3.3%	.243	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	582	+0.03	2.49	2,146	83
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	83
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	82
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	82
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	80
Joe Saunders L 2006 · 3.94 FIP	25	SP	3.94	16.9%	9.3%	2.0%	.300	4.48	13.1%	6.1%	491	+0.54	3.86	1,378	80
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	79
John Gast L 2013 · 4.15 FIP	24	SP	4.15	15.4%	9.6%	2.1%	.263	3.96	14.1%	6.2%	122	-0.19	3.96	134	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	77
Nate Robertson L 2003 · 4.66 FIP	25	SP	4.66	16.3%	10.3%	3.0%	.343	4.54	16.1%	8.6%	602	-0.12	4.13	1,144	77
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	77
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	76
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.39	480	76
Nick Bierbrodt L 2001 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	18.8%	9.8%	4.4%	.318	6.19	12.8%	-1.6%	60	+1.04	5.15	145	76
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	76
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	76
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	75
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	55	20.7%	9.3%	1.11	4.56
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Stan Belinda ('00)	3.4	61	21.3%	9.9%	1.13	4.12
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Ken Dayley ('82-'93, 4 WAR*)	2.9	64	21.8%*	9.1%*	0.97*	4.10*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*