Jackson Kent — OGILVIE

Jackson Kent P Rochester Red Wings

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 219 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION122 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.12

FIP4.12

K%21.1%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL2050

CMD4555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p4624.7%

p2017.8%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$8M	+1.3	$8M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$13M	+1.2	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$18M	+1.1	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$38M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	123	509	132	38	14	100%	5.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.5%	4.61	4.39	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	123	509	132	38	14	100%	5.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.5%	4.61	4.39	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	123	509	132	38	14	100%	5.1	25.9%	7.5%	18.5%	2.8%	4.61	3.36	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	6	27	129	23	20	1	100%	4.6	17.8%	15.5%	2.3%	0.8%	6.59	4.09	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	26	26	122	515	128	49	12	100%	4.7	21.2%	9.3%	12.0%	2.6%	4.36	3.91	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	26	26	122	515	128	49	12	100%	4.7	21.2%	9.3%	12.0%	2.6%	4.36	3.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	WSH	7	7	31	118	38	8	3	100%	4.4	32.2%	6.8%	25.4%	2.5%	2.35	2.63	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	WSH	13	13	64	268	67	21	8	100%	4.9	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	3.0%	4.38	3.62	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	WSH	6	6	27	129	23	20	1	100%	4.5	17.8%	15.5%	2.3%	0.8%	6.59	3.98	+0.3
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	WSH	6	6	27	129	23	20	1	100%	4.5	17.8%	15.5%	2.3%	0.8%	6.59	3.98	+0.3
ROS	23	MLB MLE	WSH	2	2	11	47	10	4	1	100%	5.6	21.1%	8.4%	12.7%	3.2%	4.12	4.12	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	WSH	2	2	11	46	10	4	1	100%	5.5	21.1%	8.4%	12.7%	3.2%	4.12	4.12	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	133	562	138	53	13	—	—	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	2.4%	4.34	3.93	+1.5
FULL	23	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	38	162	138	53	13	—	—	84.9%	32.6%	52.3%	8.3%	15.00	4.62	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	163	687	145	63	19	100%	5.6	21.1%	9.2%	11.8%	2.7%	4.42	4.35	+1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	30	30	175	739	160	65	20	100%	5.8	21.7%	8.7%	12.9%	2.7%	4.31	4.24	+1.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	175	739	162	64	20	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.6%	13.3%	2.7%	4.25	4.22	+1.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	172	728	159	63	20	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	2.8%	4.25	4.26	+1.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	172	728	159	64	21	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.8%	12.9%	2.9%	4.30	4.34	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	27	27	165	695	150	63	21	100%	6.1	21.5%	9.1%	12.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.47	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	155	653	138	61	21	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	3.2%	4.55	4.65	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	144	609	127	59	21	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.5%	4.73	4.85	+0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	134	564	115	57	21	100%	6.1	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	3.7%	4.94	5.08	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	28	28	154	650	137	60	18	100%	5.5	21.1%	9.2%	11.8%	2.7%	4.42	4.35	+1.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	28	28	166	701	152	61	19	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.7%	12.9%	2.7%	4.31	4.24	+1.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	28	28	166	701	154	61	19	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.6%	13.3%	2.7%	4.25	4.22	+1.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	27	27	164	692	152	60	19	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	2.8%	4.25	4.26	+1.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	27	27	164	692	151	61	20	100%	6.1	21.8%	8.8%	12.9%	2.9%	4.30	4.34	+1.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	156	659	142	60	20	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.1%	12.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.47	+0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	147	621	132	58	20	100%	6.1	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	3.2%	4.55	4.65	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	23	23	137	578	120	56	20	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.5%	4.73	4.85	+0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	21	21	127	536	109	54	20	100%	6.0	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	3.7%	4.94	5.08	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		241	241	1420	6010	1281	556	177	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.3%	12.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.09	+13.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	180	78	25	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.3%	12.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		50	50	245	1024	212	91	31	100%	4.9	20.7%	8.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.49	4.15	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	837	174	74	26	100%	4.9	20.7%	8.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.49	4.15	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Kent (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	20.9%	8.1%	3.2%	—	4.27	21.6%	12.7%	513	-0.22	—	—	—
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	90
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	88
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	88
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	87
Eric Lauer L 2018 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	20.2%	9.1%	2.7%	.311	3.90	22.3%	14.4%	279	-0.10	3.75	1,097	86
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	86
Tyler DeLoach L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	19.0%	10.1%	2.6%	.332	2.96	21.7%	12.4%	63	-1.26	2.96	202	86
Mitch Horacek L 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP	4.75	17.1%	9.1%	3.5%	.306	3.97	17.9%	8.6%	248	-0.78	3.21	466	85
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	84
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	84
D.J. Snelten L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	23	SP	3.49	18.5%	7.8%	1.8%	.349	3.34	17.3%	8.4%	217	-0.15	3.25	373	84
David Peterson L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	23	SP	3.64	19.8%	8.2%	2.1%	.333	3.77	24.8%	14.4%	248	+0.13	2.81	1,061	83
Scott Moss L 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	15.3%	8.4%	2.7%	.307	3.97	24.1%	9.8%	151	-0.39	3.83	457	82
Nick Raquet L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	16.8%	8.9%	2.7%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.66	434	82
Anthony Banda L 2017 · 4.09 FIP	23	SP	4.09	19.7%	9.7%	2.6%	.315	4.19	21.5%	12.1%	85	+0.10	2.89	876	82
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	82
Caleb Franzen L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	16.2%	10.1%	2.0%	.336	5.82	12.6%	0.2%	42	+1.72	4.10	155	82
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	81
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	81
Aaron Leasher L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	17.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.301	4.15	19.8%	9.5%	152	-0.16	4.04	477	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.0	160	21.4%	9.0%	1.16	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68