Jackson Kent
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 23
LHP
6'3" / 219 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.2 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104113vR 122
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
K%20.9%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 123 | 509 | 132 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.46 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 123 | 509 | 132 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.1 | 25.9% | 7.5% | 18.5% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 3.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 16 | 16 | 74 | 300 | 82 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 3.80 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.9% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 138 | 574 | 139 | 45 | 17 | — | — | 24.3% | 7.8% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.15 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 6 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 20.9% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.17 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 147 | 619 | 135 | 50 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 148 | 627 | 139 | 49 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.33 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 148 | 627 | 140 | 49 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.30 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 146 | 617 | 138 | 48 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 142 | 599 | 133 | 48 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 135 | 572 | 126 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.55 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 127 | 537 | 116 | 46 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.73 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 119 | 501 | 106 | 44 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 4.81 | 4.93 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 96 | 43 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 4.1% | 5.02 | 5.15 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 101 | 425 | 86 | 41 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 4.4% | 5.25 | 5.40 | 0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 65 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 103 | 435 | 97 | 34 | 14 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 113 | 39 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.30 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 119 | 42 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 119 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 115 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.55 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 108 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 100 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 4.81 | 4.93 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 91 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 4.1% | 5.02 | 5.15 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 82 | 39 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 4.4% | 5.25 | 5.40 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 186 | 186 | 1105 | 4667 | 1014 | 390 | 165 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.26 | +14.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 71 | 30 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 40 | 197 | 809 | 173 | 67 | 28 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.22 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 823 | 175 | 68 | 28 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Kent (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 20.9% | 8.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.34 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 443 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Adam Scott L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.53 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 3.9% | .318 | 5.02 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 136 | +0.49 | 4.53 | 315 | 92 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.17 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.84 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 325 | -0.33 | 3.66 | 437 | 88 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .301 | 6.14 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 71 | +1.88 | 4.26 | 176 | 85 |
| Matthew Boyd L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.62 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .252 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 13.1% | 518 | -0.26 | 2.22 | 1,376 | 84 |
| Eric Lauer L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.13 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | 4.06 | 22.3% | 14.4% | 279 | -0.07 | 3.81 | 1,101 | 83 |
| David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.55 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .303 | 5.56 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +2.01 | 3.08 | 517 | 83 |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 134 | 83 |
| Ryan Smith L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.63 | 22.5% | 6.9% | 4.7% | .293 | 5.55 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 104 | +0.92 | 4.63 | 233 | 83 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.41 | 20.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .323 | 4.95 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 277 | +1.54 | 3.41 | 452 | 83 |
| Mitch Horacek L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.49 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .306 | 3.79 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 248 | -0.70 | 3.12 | 466 | 83 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.60 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .269 | 5.90 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 87 | +1.30 | 4.60 | 308 | 83 |
| D.J. Snelten L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.50 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .349 | 3.38 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 217 | -0.12 | 3.24 | 373 | 83 |
| Nick Bush L 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.43 | 17.7% | 5.6% | 2.0% | .320 | 4.15 | 19.3% | 14.0% | 188 | +0.72 | 3.42 | 320 | 83 |
| Tyler DeLoach L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 19.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .332 | 2.97 | 21.7% | 12.4% | 63 | -1.27 | 2.97 | 202 | 82 |
| Anthony Banda L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.03 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.10 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 85 | +0.07 | 2.98 | 876 | 82 |
| David Peterson L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.62 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .333 | 3.77 | 24.8% | 14.4% | 248 | +0.15 | 2.80 | 1,080 | 81 |
| Harrison Musgrave L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .292 | 4.34 | 15.4% | 6.3% | 269 | +0.15 | 4.11 | 440 | 81 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.15 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .258 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 92 | +0.11 | 4.15 | 200 | 81 |
| Michael Velasquez L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.87 | 16.7% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .350 | 5.26 | 10.3% | 2.8% | 88 | +1.39 | 3.87 | 201 | 81 |
| Aaron Leasher L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.5% | .301 | 4.13 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.39 | 3.89 | 477 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 133 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 1.34 | 4.56 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |