Jackson Kent
P
Harrisburg Senators
+1.1
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'3" / 219 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.8 · 2029
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%12.9%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 24 | 24 | 123 | 509 | 132 | 38 | 14 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 111 | 45 | 16 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 123 | 520 | 114 | 47 | 17 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.41 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 139 | 587 | 132 | 50 | 18 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 28 | 153 | 645 | 147 | 54 | 20 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.33 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 29 | 29 | 160 | 674 | 155 | 56 | 21 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.30 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 30 | 30 | 162 | 686 | 157 | 57 | 21 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.31 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 29 | 29 | 162 | 684 | 157 | 57 | 22 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 29 | 29 | 158 | 669 | 152 | 56 | 21 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.38 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 28 | 154 | 649 | 147 | 55 | 21 | 22.6% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 140 | 54 | 21 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.52 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 133 | 53 | 21 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 125 | 52 | 20 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 129 | 546 | 117 | 50 | 20 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.81 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 108 | 48 | 19 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 99 | 46 | 18 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 4.98 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 25 | 126 | 522 | 106 | 45 | 19 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 4.47 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 40 | 200 | 829 | 168 | 71 | 30 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 4.47 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Kent (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.34 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 451 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 93 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 91 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 91 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.52 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 216 | +1.13 | 3.39 | 448 | 90 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 89 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 89 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 89 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.45 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .261 | 5.90 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.45 | 3.45 | 522 | 88 |
| David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 88 |
| Ryan Smith L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.53 | 22.5% | 6.9% | 4.5% | .293 | 5.49 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 104 | +0.96 | 4.53 | 233 | 87 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 87 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 87 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 86 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .349 | 4.13 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.40 | 3.93 | 264 | 86 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 86 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 86 |
| Aaron Leasher L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .301 | 4.17 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.21 | 4.10 | 477 | 85 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 85 |
| Tyler Thomas L 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.37 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 1.8% | .255 | 3.52 | 24.2% | 14.6% | 54 | +0.15 | 2.75 | 279 | 84 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.6 | $15M | +$12M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.5 | $15M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.3 | $13M | +$6M |
| Totals | $19M | $92M | +$73M | ||