Gerlin Rosario

P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 211 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	34	1	64	2.97	2.85	31.6%	10.9%	—	K 23.6% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.20
2025	23	A+TB	30	0	48	2.27	2.97	21.3%	8.9%	—	K 16.4% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.74
2026	24	A+OAK	30	0	42	7.93	6.72	15.0%	13.6%	—	K 11.6% · BB 15.6% · FIP 7.43
2027PROJ	25	MLBOAK	57	0	60	5.95	5.95	13.8%	14.4%	-0.9
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBOAK	25	0	26	5.74	5.72	15.5%	13.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBOAK	35	0	37	5.64	5.65	16.1%	13.6%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJeff Soptic (age 25) · Conner O'Neil (age 24) · Jarod Wright (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.95

FIP5.95

K%13.8%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%-0.6%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	7	53	205	35	4	2	58%	4.4	11.6%	2.4%	9.2%	1.1%	2.38	3.02	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	12	7	53	205	35	4	2	58%	4.4	17.1%	2.0%	15.1%	1.0%	2.38	2.50	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	41	174	49	13	3	0%	2.1	20.3%	9.1%	11.2%	2.3%	1.96	3.79	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	41	174	49	13	3	0%	2.1	28.2%	7.5%	20.7%	1.7%	1.96	2.62	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	64	266	84	29	5	3%	1.9	23.6%	12.7%	10.9%	2.7%	2.97	4.20	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	64	266	84	29	5	3%	1.9	23.6%	12.7%	10.9%	2.7%	2.97	4.20	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	1	64	266	84	29	5	3%	1.9	31.6%	10.9%	20.7%	1.9%	2.97	2.85	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	30	0	48	202	43	18	2	0%	1.6	16.4%	10.2%	6.1%	1.3%	2.27	3.74	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	30	0	48	202	43	18	2	0%	1.6	16.4%	10.2%	6.1%	1.3%	2.27	3.74	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	30	0	48	202	43	18	2	0%	1.6	21.3%	8.9%	12.4%	1.0%	2.27	2.97	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	30	0	42	206	31	28	10	0%	1.4	11.6%	15.6%	-4.0%	6.1%	7.93	7.43	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	30	0	42	206	31	28	10	0%	1.4	11.6%	15.6%	-4.0%	6.1%	7.93	7.43	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	30	0	42	206	31	28	10	0%	1.4	15.0%	13.6%	1.5%	4.9%	7.93	6.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	OAK	57	0	60	253	35	36	8	0%	1.1	13.8%	14.4%	-0.6%	3.3%	5.95	5.95	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	57	0	60	251	39	35	8	0%	1.0	15.5%	13.8%	1.7%	3.3%	5.74	5.72	-0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	56	0	59	247	40	34	8	0%	1.0	16.1%	13.6%	2.6%	3.3%	5.64	5.65	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	25	0	26	110	17	15	4	0%	1.0	15.5%	13.8%	1.7%	3.3%	5.74	5.72	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	35	0	37	156	25	21	5	0%	1.1	16.1%	13.6%	2.6%	3.3%	5.64	5.65	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	264	42	36	9	0%	1.1	15.9%	13.7%	2.2%	3.3%	5.68	5.30	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	134	115	29	0%	1.1	15.9%	13.7%	2.2%	3.3%	5.68	5.30	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		126	8	248	1053	179	108	29	6%	2.0	17.0%	10.2%	6.8%	2.7%	3.38	4.45	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	6	200	850	144	87	23	6%	2.0	17.0%	10.2%	6.8%	2.7%	3.38	4.45	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerlin Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.95	13.8%	14.4%	3.3%	—	5.69	15.8%	2.1%	118	-0.26	—	—	—
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	87
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	87
Jarod Wright R 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SU	5.73	12.7%	13.2%	3.7%	.282	4.46	13.2%	3.8%	53	-1.27	4.46	170	86
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	85
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	85
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	85
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	84
Rafael Dolis R 2012 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	13.9%	12.7%	3.0%	.287	4.02	15.8%	1.5%	66	-1.17	2.80	200	84
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	83
Scott Griggs R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	25	SU	5.11	11.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.278	4.19	19.7%	8.0%	112	-0.92	3.06	176	82
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	82
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	82
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	82
Claudio Custodio R 2015 · 5.31 FIP	24	SU	5.31	11.1%	13.2%	2.7%	.351	3.79	11.5%	4.8%	37	-1.52	3.08	186	82
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	82
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	81
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	81
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	81
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	81
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	15.1%	13.9%	1.27	5.78
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*