Saul Garcia

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	24	13	71	5.05	3.00	25.7%	12.6%	—	K 18.6% · BB 15.4% · FIP 4.30
2025	22	MIX2 levels	38	0	48	1.70	2.43	37.6%	13.4%	—	K 29.3% · BB 15.2% · FIP 3.52
2026	23	MIX2 levels	51	1	61	3.56	3.89	29.6%	8.8%	—	K 25.6% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.73
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYM	29	0	30	4.58	4.58	25.5%	11.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBNYM	23	0	24	4.48	4.43	25.7%	10.9%	0.0
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBNYM	35	0	37	4.43	4.40	25.7%	10.8%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsGarrett Mock (age 25) · Grant Balfour (age 25) · Tyler Mitzel (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%25.5%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP30

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	5	0	6	28	11	4	0	0%	1.2	39.3%	14.3%	25.0%	0.0%	7.50	1.59	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	5	0	6	28	11	4	0	0%	1.2	39.3%	14.3%	25.0%	0.0%	7.50	1.43	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	14	2	31	147	46	23	1	14%	2.2	21.3%	19.6%	1.7%	0.9%	4.94	4.27	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	14	2	31	147	46	23	1	14%	2.2	31.3%	15.6%	15.6%	0.7%	4.94	2.78	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	10	80	355	106	52	3	40%	3.2	22.2%	17.3%	4.9%	0.9%	5.04	3.89	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	10	80	355	106	52	3	40%	3.2	29.9%	14.6%	15.2%	0.8%	5.04	2.89	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	71	334	86	42	3	54%	3.0	18.6%	15.4%	3.2%	1.5%	5.05	4.30	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	71	334	86	42	3	54%	3.0	18.6%	15.4%	3.2%	1.5%	5.05	4.30	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	13	71	334	86	42	3	54%	3.0	25.7%	12.6%	13.2%	0.9%	5.05	3.00	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	202	76	27	3	0%	1.3	29.3%	15.2%	14.1%	1.8%	1.70	3.52	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	202	76	27	3	0%	1.3	29.3%	15.2%	14.1%	1.8%	1.70	3.52	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	48	202	76	27	3	0%	1.3	37.6%	13.4%	24.3%	1.5%	1.70	2.43	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	61	250	74	22	10	2%	1.2	25.6%	10.0%	15.6%	4.6%	3.56	4.73	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	61	250	74	22	10	2%	1.2	25.6%	10.0%	15.6%	4.6%	3.56	4.73	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	1	61	250	74	22	10	2%	1.2	29.6%	8.8%	20.8%	4.0%	3.56	3.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYM	29	0	30	127	32	15	4	0%	1.0	25.5%	11.9%	13.6%	3.2%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	53	0	55	233	60	25	7	0%	1.0	25.7%	10.9%	14.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.43	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	53	0	55	233	60	25	7	0%	1.0	25.7%	10.8%	14.9%	3.1%	4.43	4.40	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	52	0	54	230	59	25	7	0%	1.0	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	3.2%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	23	0	24	101	26	11	3	0%	1.0	25.7%	10.9%	14.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.43	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	35	0	37	156	40	17	5	0%	1.1	25.7%	10.8%	14.9%	3.1%	4.43	4.40	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	40	0	42	177	45	19	6	0%	1.1	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	3.2%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		99	0	104	437	112	47	14	0%	1.0	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	3.2%	4.44	4.04	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	216	91	27	0%	1.1	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	3.2%	4.44	4.04	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		157	26	297	1316	306	201	24	17%	1.9	23.3%	15.3%	8.0%	1.9%	4.24	4.09	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	18	200	886	206	135	16	17%	1.9	23.3%	15.3%	8.0%	1.9%	4.24	4.09	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Saul Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	25.5%	11.9%	3.2%	—	4.42	25.6%	14.8%	165	-0.16	—	—	—
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	90
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	90
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	88
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Stolmy Pimentel R 2014 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.7%	9.5%	3.6%	.319	4.17	14.8%	4.3%	143	+0.04	3.87	176	85
Zac Leigh R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	24	SU	3.70	28.5%	12.3%	2.6%	.270	4.45	21.7%	5.8%	130	+0.75	3.70	201	85
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	85
Barrett Loseke R 2021 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	26.2%	12.8%	3.9%	.282	4.63	22.2%	11.8%	86	-0.01	4.42	152	84
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	84
Lucas Wepf R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	24	SU	3.80	27.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.304	4.09	25.4%	11.8%	80	+0.29	2.90	195	84
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	83
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	83
Chris Mauloni R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	23	SU	4.82	25.6%	11.5%	4.4%	.333	5.67	17.6%	1.4%	71	+0.85	4.82	129	83
Aaron Crow R 2011 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	24.4%	10.9%	3.2%	.287	4.16	20.1%	11.4%	172	-0.04	2.88	234	83
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	83
Brad Boxberger R 2012 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	27.5%	14.2%	2.4%	.284	3.44	33.4%	23.7%	150	-0.47	2.63	478	83
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	83
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	25.6%	11.0%	1.23	4.47
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*