Bryan Polanco

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	AWSH	24	23	112	3.71	4.34	18.2%	9.1%	—	K 13.5% · BB 10.7% · FIP 5.31
2026	24	A+WSH	26	9	90	5.28	4.46	22.8%	11.4%	—	K 17.5% · BB 13.1% · FIP 5.49
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	11	11	70	5.88	5.88	14.1%	14.1%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	7	7	43	5.68	5.65	15.6%	13.4%	-0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	10	10	62	5.58	5.58	16.1%	13.1%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control45Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJacob Meador (age 23) · Ryan Jensen (age 25) · Boone Whiting (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.88

FIP5.88

K%14.1%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%-0.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	5	0	8	34	11	2	0	0%	1.5	32.4%	5.9%	26.5%	0.0%	7.04	1.11	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	5	0	8	34	11	2	0	0%	1.5	32.4%	5.9%	26.5%	0.0%	7.04	1.01	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	7	41	183	49	21	4	64%	3.7	18.2%	14.3%	3.9%	3.3%	3.51	5.18	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	7	41	183	49	21	4	64%	3.7	26.8%	11.5%	15.3%	2.2%	3.51	3.51	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	44	200	29	16	9	82%	4.0	10.0%	11.4%	-1.3%	5.6%	5.48	6.75	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	9	44	200	29	16	9	82%	4.0	14.5%	8.0%	6.5%	4.5%	5.48	5.51	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	17	93	403	74	45	11	77%	4.2	13.6%	13.2%	0.4%	3.3%	4.06	5.43	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	17	93	403	74	45	11	77%	4.2	13.6%	13.2%	0.4%	3.3%	4.06	5.43	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	17	93	403	74	45	11	77%	4.2	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	2.7%	4.06	4.50	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	23	112	483	88	44	14	96%	4.7	13.5%	10.7%	2.7%	3.6%	3.71	5.31	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	23	112	483	88	44	14	96%	4.7	13.5%	10.7%	2.7%	3.6%	3.71	5.31	—
2025	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	23	112	483	88	44	14	96%	4.7	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	2.9%	3.71	4.34	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	9	90	404	92	46	13	35%	3.5	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	4.0%	5.28	5.49	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	9	90	404	92	46	13	35%	3.5	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	4.0%	5.28	5.49	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	9	90	404	92	46	13	35%	3.5	22.8%	11.4%	11.4%	3.2%	5.28	4.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	11	11	70	296	42	42	10	100%	6.4	14.1%	14.1%	-0.0%	3.3%	5.88	5.88	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	100	424	66	57	14	100%	6.3	15.6%	13.4%	2.2%	3.3%	5.68	5.65	-0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	99	418	67	55	14	100%	6.2	16.1%	13.1%	3.0%	3.3%	5.58	5.58	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	96	405	66	52	14	100%	6.4	16.3%	12.9%	3.3%	3.4%	5.57	5.60	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	92	387	63	50	14	100%	6.5	16.2%	13.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.63	5.70	-0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	86	364	58	48	14	100%	6.2	15.8%	13.3%	2.5%	3.7%	5.78	5.87	-0.9
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	43	182	28	24	6	100%	6.1	15.6%	13.4%	2.2%	3.3%	5.68	5.65	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	62	262	42	34	9	100%	6.2	16.1%	13.1%	3.0%	3.3%	5.58	5.58	-0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	72	304	49	39	10	100%	6.5	16.3%	12.9%	3.3%	3.4%	5.57	5.60	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	75	317	51	41	11	100%	6.2	16.2%	13.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.63	5.70	-0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	74	312	49	42	12	100%	6.2	15.8%	13.3%	2.5%	3.7%	5.78	5.87	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	326	1377	221	181	48	100%	6.4	16.0%	13.1%	2.9%	3.5%	5.65	5.31	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	135	111	29	100%	6.4	16.0%	13.1%	2.9%	3.5%	5.65	5.31	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		99	65	388	1707	255	209	64	66%	3.9	14.9%	12.2%	2.7%	3.8%	4.41	5.45	-4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	34	200	880	132	108	33	66%	3.9	14.9%	12.2%	2.7%	3.8%	4.41	5.45	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Polanco (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.88	14.1%	14.1%	3.3%	—	5.61	16.0%	2.9%	296	-0.27	—	—	—
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	87
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	86
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	86
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	85
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	84
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	81
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	80
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	79
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	79
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	79
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	78
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	78
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	78
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	78
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	78
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	77
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	77
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	77
Lauro Ramirez R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	25	SP-	5.80	9.5%	10.1%	4.1%	.382	4.99	7.2%	-3.4%	90	-0.81	4.99	140	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	91	15.7%	13.3%	1.32	5.68
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Hal Griggs ('56-'59, -4 WAR*)	1.7	116	16.8%*	11.9%*	1.33*	5.92*
Rube Fischer ('41-'46, -4 WAR*)	1.9	96	18.0%*	12.5%*	1.14*	6.04*
Charlie Bishop ('52-'55, -1 WAR*)	1.5	98	16.9%*	11.2%*	1.30*	5.49*