Carsten Sabathia III

1B Wilson Warbirds

Age 23 R/R A HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	22	AMIL	84	.288/.381/.466	3	1	74	—	.221/.286/.338
2027PROJ0% MLB	23	MLBMIL	194	.209/.273/.325	4	2	68	-0.2
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBMIL	54	.210/.275/.330	1	0	71	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

wOBA80

wRC+79

ISO71

BB%58

Whiff%42

K%33

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRuben Ibarra (age 24) · Ivan Melendez (age 23) · Jacob Heyward (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 92 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .271 / .322

PA92

HR2

K%32

BB%7

ISO115

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A	Wilson Warbirds	—	84	73	21	4	0	3	11	23	0	1	0	288	381	466	847	178	383	27	13	378	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	—	84	77	17	3	0	2	7	31	0	1	0	221	286	338	623	117	337	37	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	—	84	77	17	3	0	2	7	31	0	1	0	221	286	338	623	117	341	37	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	Wilson Warbirds	—	84	73	21	4	0	3	11	23	0	1	0	288	381	466	847	178	383	27	13	378	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	—	84	77	17	3	0	2	7	31	0	1	0	221	286	338	623	117	337	37	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	—	84	77	17	3	0	2	7	31	0	1	0	221	286	338	623	117	337	37	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIL	0%	194	176	37	6	1	4	15	61	1	2	1	209	273	325	598	115	291	31	8	269	68	-7	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	30%	178	162	35	6	1	4	13	55	1	1	0	212	277	331	608	119	292	31	7	274	71	-6	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	30%	54	50	10	2	0	1	4	17	0	0	0	210	275	330	605	120	287	31	7	272	71	-2	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	54	50	10	2	0	1	4	17	0	0	0	200	259	300	559	100	281	31	7	272	71	-2	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	602	120	24	0	12	48	205	0	0	0	199	258	299	557	100	281	32	7	272	71	-22	+0	+0	-12	+14	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	354	323	69	12	1	8	27	115	2	3	0	214	278	331	610	118	303	32	8	274	71	-10	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	127	22	2	15	50	211	4	6	0	214	280	334	614	120	304	32	8	274	71	-23	+1	+0	-12	+14	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carsten Sabathia III (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	207/271/322	114	291	2	1	32%	7%	68	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ruben Ibarra 2023 · A	24	40→36	47→50	47→30	41	206/278/335	129	284	16	6	32%	7%	74	-0.5	201/273/342	141	270	18	3	31%	7%	74	-0.5	190/263/343	153	244	21	1	31%	7%	69	-0.7
✕Ivan Melendez 2023 · A	23	43→35	44→50	50→40	43	212/297/334	121	279	12	6	27%	6%	82	-0.0	202/264/357	155	299	21	4	38%	6%	74	-0.5	192/255/341	149	276	21	3	37%	6%	64	-0.9
✕Jacob Heyward 2019 · A	23	41→40	45	44→50	44	202/275/323	121	289	13	10	33%	8%	70	-0.8	194/286/320	126	294	14	9	36%	10%	74	-0.5	165/261/285	120	256	15	5	39%	10%	55	-1.2
✕Joe DeCarlo 2017 · A	23	38	45→50	47→30	44	191/278/314	124	278	13	2	34%	9%	70	-0.8	195/271/326	131	277	15	3	33%	8%	70	-0.9	176/253/298	122	249	15	0	34%	7%	54	-0.9
✕Jacob Schrader 2014 · A	23	36→35	44→50	50→30	36	186/241/304	118	280	12	5	37%	6%	53	-2.1	208/251/343	135	297	15	3	34%	4%	65	-1.2	202/243/337	135	285	15	2	34%	4%	58	-1.1
✕Jake Adams 2019 · A	23	39→35	47→50	45	38	200/255/333	133	293	15	9	36%	6%	64	-1.3	193/244/329	136	286	18	7	38%	5%	59	-1.6	167/216/300	133	240	20	4	39%	5%	42	-1.4
✕A.J. Kirby-Jones 2012 · A	23	41	43→50	44→30	42	197/270/304	107	306	11	4	37%	8%	64	-1.3	207/287/352	145	307	17	2	35%	10%	82	-0.0	203/289/356	153	293	19	1	35%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Brandon Parker 2022 · A	23	37	44→45	49→50	37	176/253/291	115	310	12	6	44%	8%	55	-1.9	193/271/315	122	302	12	9	37%	8%	68	-1.0	180/258/303	123	280	13	11	38%	8%	57	-0.8
✕Richie Shaffer 2014 · A	23	42→40	44→55	51→40	38	209/256/329	121	285	11	6	30%	5%	63	-1.3	205/272/365	160	274	18	5	31%	8%	78	-0.3	197/270/360	164	261	19	4	31%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Gabriel Garcia 2021 · A	23	35	43→45	43→45	42	177/264/287	110	275	11	6	37%	9%	59	-1.7	194/254/306	112	339	11	7	43%	7%	58	-1.7	151/211/252	100	278	11	3	47%	6%	29	-1.5
✕Nick Thompson 2016 · A	23	42→39	43→45	45→30	40	206/270/316	110	293	11	3	32%	7%	66	-1.1	204/266/307	103	290	9	5	31%	7%	62	-1.4	147/214/219	72	207	4	0	29%	8%	20	-0.8
✕Chase McDonald 2015 · A	23	42→41	46→55	44→30	39	208/270/337	129	309	15	2	36%	7%	72	-0.7	210/267/373	163	297	22	3	35%	7%	78	-0.3	199/257/372	173	268	25	1	35%	7%	72	-0.5
✕Brandon Bayardi 2014 · A	23	39	43→50	49→45	38	197/251/302	105	257	11	8	27%	4%	56	-1.9	219/273/344	125	290	13	7	28%	5%	74	-0.6	223/280/362	139	292	16	7	28%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Will Crouch 2006 · A	23	42	45	43→45	45	206/291/330	124	290	12	7	31%	9%	78	-0.3	199/276/324	125	275	14	4	31%	8%	71	-0.8	168/251/297	129	217	17	0	31%	8%	53	-1.2
✕Jesse Wierzbicki 2012 · A	23	43→44	43→45	51→45	41	208/271/320	112	301	10	6	33%	7%	68	-1.0	214/280/322	108	273	9	7	24%	7%	72	-0.7	211/282/312	101	251	8	6	19%	6%	68	-0.8
✕Trae Santos 2016 · A	23	41→38	46→50	46→40	43	204/272/336	132	275	12	4	30%	7%	72	-0.7	187/251/309	122	277	11	4	35%	6%	58	-1.7	146/214/264	118	221	11	0	38%	6%	31	-2.6
✕Yusuf Carter 2008 · A	23	35→33	46→50	48→50	30	185/217/311	125	294	15	9	42%	4%	45	-2.7	214/255/357	143	305	17	10	34%	5%	70	-0.9	217/262/367	149	293	19	10	32%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Bryson Ware 2024 · A	23	39→32	44→45	50	40	196/260/308	112	283	12	11	34%	7%	61	-1.5	189/249/307	118	281	13	11	36%	6%	56	-1.9	182/242/307	125	267	15	11	36%	6%	51	-1.4
✕Cory Vaughn 2012 · A	23	44→42	44→45	43→50	43	214/290/328	114	297	11	7	30%	7%	77	-0.3	200/277/323	123	280	13	13	32%	8%	71	-0.8	186/265/305	119	259	13	16	32%	8%	60	-1.2
✕Austen Smith 2015 · A	23	44→34	45	48→30	41	216/294/335	119	305	13	4	32%	7%	80	-0.1	197/272/306	109	306	11	3	36%	8%	65	-1.2	173/254/280	107	269	12	1	38%	9%	49	-1.8