Jonathan Brand

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 27 RHP 5'9" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	34	0	56	3.70	3.39	20.9%	9.0%	—	K 13.6% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.61
2025	25	MIX3 levels	33	0	51	3.16	2.92	27.1%	8.7%	—	K 22.1% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.34
2026	26	AATEX	41	1	64	5.34	5.01	27.1%	10.8%	—	K 21.9% · BB 11.9% · FIP 6.09
2027PROJ	27	MLBTEX	39	0	41	4.99	4.99	21.7%	10.6%	-0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBTEX	14	0	15	4.97	5.01	21.7%	10.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsFernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 27) · Brian Sanches (age 27) · Cole McDonald (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%21.7%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	8	3	0	0	0%	1.0	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.07	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	8	3	0	0	0%	1.0	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2023	23	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	29	0	38	153	47	14	3	0%	1.3	22.7%	10.8%	11.9%	2.6%	2.58	3.95	—
2023	23	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	29	0	38	153	47	14	3	0%	1.3	30.7%	9.2%	21.6%	2.0%	2.58	2.76	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	56	244	51	22	4	0%	1.6	13.6%	10.6%	3.0%	2.4%	3.70	4.61	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	56	244	51	22	4	0%	1.6	13.6%	10.6%	3.0%	2.4%	3.70	4.61	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	56	244	51	22	4	0%	1.6	20.9%	9.0%	11.9%	1.6%	3.70	3.39	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	0	51	218	59	19	4	0%	1.6	22.1%	7.8%	14.3%	2.0%	3.16	3.34	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	0	51	218	59	19	4	0%	1.6	22.1%	7.8%	14.3%	2.0%	3.16	3.34	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	0	51	218	59	19	4	0%	1.6	27.1%	8.7%	18.3%	1.8%	3.16	2.92	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	41	1	64	277	75	30	14	2%	1.6	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	6.1%	5.34	6.09	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	41	1	64	277	75	30	14	2%	1.6	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	6.1%	5.34	6.09	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	41	1	64	277	75	30	14	2%	1.6	27.1%	10.8%	16.2%	5.1%	5.34	5.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TEX	39	0	41	173	38	18	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.6%	11.1%	3.6%	4.99	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	38	0	40	167	36	18	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	10.6%	11.1%	3.7%	4.97	5.01	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	14	0	15	63	14	7	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.6%	11.1%	3.7%	4.97	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	63	14	7	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.6%	11.1%	3.7%	4.97	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	94	27	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.6%	11.1%	3.7%	4.97	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		139	1	212	900	180	92	31	1%	1.5	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.4%	3.83	4.60	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	1	200	850	170	87	29	1%	1.5	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.4%	3.83	4.60	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Brand (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	21.7%	10.6%	3.6%	—	5.01	21.7%	11.1%	40	+0.02	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	87
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	87
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	86
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	86
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	86
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	85
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	22.5%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.86	4.73	183	85
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	27	SU	5.07	22.2%	11.4%	4.4%	.256	4.43	23.3%	9.7%	39	-0.64	2.64	315	85
Greg Aquino R 2005 · 5.03 FIP	27	SU	5.03	21.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.357	4.34	22.5%	13.3%	62	-0.69	4.10	154	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	84
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	83
Jack Hartman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	26	SU	4.34	20.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.310	4.29	17.6%	5.6%	46	-0.05	3.46	161	83
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	83
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	40	21.7%	10.6%	1.41	4.98
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*