Jay Schueler — OGILVIE

Jay Schueler P Vancouver Canadians

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 22 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%17.8%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	8	0	9	44	7	7	3	0%	1.1	15.9%	15.9%	0.0%	6.8%	7.00	7.51	—
2024	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	8	0	9	44	7	7	3	0%	1.1	15.9%	15.9%	0.0%	6.8%	7.00	7.51	—
2024	23	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	8	0	9	44	7	7	3	0%	1.1	15.9%	15.9%	0.0%	6.8%	7.00	8.21	—
2025	24	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	31	0	34	148	32	19	3	0%	1.1	16.0%	15.1%	0.9%	2.1%	4.19	4.79	—
2025	24	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	31	0	34	148	32	19	3	0%	1.1	16.0%	15.1%	0.9%	2.1%	4.19	4.79	—
2025	24	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	31	0	34	148	32	19	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.8%	8.8%	2.0%	4.19	4.03	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	23	0	40	160	32	14	9	0%	1.7	15.4%	10.1%	5.3%	7.0%	4.99	6.93	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	23	0	40	160	32	14	9	0%	1.7	15.4%	10.1%	5.3%	7.0%	4.99	6.93	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	23	0	40	160	32	14	9	0%	1.7	20.0%	8.8%	11.3%	5.6%	4.99	5.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TOR	21	0	22	93	17	10	3	0%	1.0	17.8%	11.2%	6.5%	3.4%	5.29	5.29	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	34	0	35	149	27	17	5	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	3.4%	5.21	5.23	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	12	0	13	55	10	6	2	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	3.4%	5.21	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	10	6	2	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	3.4%	5.21	4.85	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	93	31	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	3.4%	5.21	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		62	0	83	352	55	46	17	0%	1.3	15.7%	12.9%	2.8%	4.9%	4.88	6.11	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	0	200	848	133	110	42	0%	1.3	15.7%	12.9%	2.8%	4.9%	4.88	6.11	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jay Schueler (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	17.8%	11.2%	3.4%	—	5.23	18.3%	7.2%	35	-0.06	—	—	—
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	93
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	90
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	88
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	87
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	87
Zach Bryant R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	26	SU	4.85	18.0%	9.6%	3.7%	.313	4.87	16.1%	5.0%	106	+0.02	4.51	215	85
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	85
Adrian Garza R 2015 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.30	3.94	229	85
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	85
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	84
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	84
Davison Palermo R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	24	SU	5.31	16.3%	11.2%	4.0%	.261	4.90	19.8%	7.4%	136	-0.41	4.32	220	84
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	84
Greg Aquino R 2004 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	17.7%	10.2%	2.7%	.196	4.57	22.3%	12.7%	94	+0.18	4.10	154	84
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	84
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	83
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	202	83
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	18.1%	11.2%	1.33	5.24
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68