Aaron Haase prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Aaron Haase P FCL Tigers

Age 26 RHP 5'8" / 193 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%22.6%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	7	32	10	5	1	0%	1.2	31.2%	15.6%	15.6%	3.1%	9.00	4.16	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	7	32	10	5	1	0%	1.2	31.2%	15.6%	15.6%	3.1%	9.00	4.24	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	35	147	52	16	6	0%	1.3	26.8%	11.7%	15.0%	4.3%	3.09	4.70	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	35	147	52	16	6	0%	1.3	35.4%	10.9%	24.5%	4.1%	3.09	3.73	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	24	103	26	6	3	0%	1.6	17.8%	7.4%	10.4%	5.5%	4.50	5.53	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	24	103	26	6	3	0%	1.6	17.8%	7.4%	10.4%	5.5%	4.50	5.53	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	24	103	26	6	3	0%	1.6	25.2%	5.8%	19.4%	2.9%	4.50	3.31	—
2025	25	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	3	1	3	13	3	1	0	33%	1.0	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	0.0%	0.00	2.13	—
2025	25	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	3	1	3	13	3	1	0	33%	1.0	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	0.0%	0.00	2.13	—
2025	25	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	3	1	3	13	3	1	0	33%	1.0	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.35	4.35	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	DET	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.37	4.38	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	DET	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.37	4.38	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.37	4.00	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	83	28	0%	1.1	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.37	4.00	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		51	1	69	295	71	31	13	2%	1.4	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	4.4%	4.04	4.82	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	3	200	855	205	89	38	2%	1.4	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	4.4%	4.04	4.82	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Haase (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	22.6%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.38	22.7%	13.8%	20	+0.03	—	—	—
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	89
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	89
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	87
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	86
Kyle Winkler R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	23.1%	8.7%	2.6%	.234	3.53	18.4%	8.3%	43	-0.17	2.97	114	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	85
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	85
Scott Dohmann R 2004 · 4.44 FIP	26	SU	4.44	24.7%	9.6%	4.0%	.270	4.80	20.6%	8.5%	112	+0.36	4.28	173	85
Josh Lueke R 2011 · 3.24 FIP	26	SU	3.24	20.4%	8.5%	1.4%	.323	4.75	18.7%	12.4%	52	+1.51	2.29	191	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	84
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	84
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2011 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	22.1%	9.6%	1.5%	.253	3.18	22.9%	13.4%	218	-0.10	2.72	398	83
Josh Roenicke R 2009 · 3.25 FIP	26	SU	3.25	23.9%	10.9%	1.5%	.341	4.17	15.4%	4.7%	124	+0.92	3.25	500	83
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	83
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	83
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	83
Guillermo Moscoso R 2009 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	18.8%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	4.33	15.8%	8.5%	178	+0.77	3.56	486	83
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	653	82
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	82