Jan Caraballo

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 181 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ROKSF	12	15	4.30	2.49	25.8%	6.1%	—	K 17.5% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.61
2026	22	ADET	29	46	7.04	5.40	21.5%	10.5%	—	K 15.9% · BB 12.4% · FIP 6.74
2027PROJ	23	MLBDET	20	21	5.18	5.18	18.6%	11.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBDET	17	18	4.98	4.91	20.0%	10.5%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsSean Isaac (age 23) · Heath Holder (age 23) · Miles Mikolas (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%18.6%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	15	0	20	94	15	12	1	0%	1.3	10.9%	16.0%	-5.1%	1.4%	6.30	4.98	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	15	0	20	94	15	12	1	0%	1.3	16.0%	12.8%	3.2%	1.1%	6.30	4.05	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	15	0	20	92	12	14	1	0%	1.4	8.9%	19.0%	-10.2%	1.4%	4.43	5.54	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	15	0	20	92	12	14	1	0%	1.4	13.0%	15.2%	-2.2%	1.1%	4.43	4.62	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	18	0	31	139	25	19	0	0%	1.7	12.2%	17.1%	-4.9%	0.0%	4.02	4.23	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	18	0	31	139	25	19	0	0%	1.7	18.0%	13.7%	4.3%	0.0%	4.02	3.32	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	18	0	37	153	40	16	1	0%	2.0	17.8%	13.1%	4.7%	0.8%	2.45	3.71	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	18	0	37	153	40	16	1	0%	2.0	17.8%	13.1%	4.7%	0.8%	2.45	3.71	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	18	0	37	153	40	16	1	0%	2.0	26.1%	10.5%	15.7%	0.7%	2.45	2.58	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	12	0	15	66	17	4	1	0%	1.2	17.5%	7.6%	9.9%	1.9%	4.30	3.61	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	12	0	15	66	17	4	1	0%	1.2	17.5%	7.6%	9.9%	1.9%	4.30	3.61	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	12	0	15	66	17	4	1	0%	1.2	25.8%	6.1%	19.7%	1.5%	4.30	2.49	—
2026	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	29	0	46	209	45	22	10	0%	1.6	15.9%	12.4%	3.5%	6.2%	7.04	6.74	—
2026	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	29	0	46	209	45	22	10	0%	1.6	15.9%	12.4%	3.5%	6.2%	7.04	6.74	—
2026	22	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	29	0	46	209	45	22	10	0%	1.6	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	4.8%	7.04	5.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	DET	20	0	21	89	17	10	3	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.5%	7.2%	3.3%	5.18	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	40	0	42	179	36	19	6	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.3%	4.98	4.91	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	17	0	18	76	15	8	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.3%	4.98	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	77	15	8	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.3%	4.98	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	88	22	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.3%	4.98	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		107	0	169	753	107	107	18	0%	1.6	14.3%	14.2%	0.0%	2.4%	4.85	5.02	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	0	200	891	127	127	21	0%	1.6	14.3%	14.2%	0.0%	2.4%	4.85	5.02	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jan Caraballo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	18.6%	11.5%	3.3%	—	4.91	20.0%	9.5%	42	-0.27	—	—	—
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	89
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	89
Miles Mikolas R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	23	SU	4.56	16.0%	10.4%	2.7%	.275	4.29	14.9%	8.6%	57	-0.27	3.13	1,386	88
Anyelo Leclerc R 2015 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	16.2%	9.8%	3.7%	.326	4.65	15.9%	6.1%	96	-0.35	4.65	140	88
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	88
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	88
Randy Messenger R 2005 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	16.3%	12.9%	2.8%	.281	3.93	13.8%	7.1%	137	-0.97	3.56	174	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	88
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	88
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	87
Kieran Lovegrove R 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.9%	12.6%	3.2%	.273	4.46	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.46	3.79	215	87
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	87
Alex Burnett R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	17.5%	9.5%	2.8%	.311	3.80	12.9%	5.3%	122	-0.57	3.68	170	87
Justin Evans R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	19.2%	11.2%	4.5%	.333	3.89	22.0%	5.5%	65	-1.49	3.63	105	87
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Luis Eusebio R 2019 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	131	87
Vince Arobio R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	23	SU	4.47	20.5%	12.0%	2.9%	.365	3.67	24.1%	16.2%	55	-0.80	3.67	118	87
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	19.6%	10.9%	1.27	5.05
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*