Miguel Guerrero prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Miguel Guerrero P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 216 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%21.7%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP40

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	31	4	56	266	59	29	6	13%	1.8	16.4%	12.9%	3.5%	3.0%	5.75	5.00	—
2021	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	31	4	56	266	59	29	6	13%	1.8	22.2%	10.9%	11.3%	2.3%	5.75	3.93	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	58	275	62	33	7	0%	1.7	17.0%	13.9%	3.1%	3.5%	4.84	5.35	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	58	275	62	33	7	0%	1.7	22.5%	12.0%	10.5%	2.5%	4.84	4.24	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	57	237	57	21	6	0%	1.8	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	3.1%	4.40	4.56	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	57	237	57	21	6	0%	1.8	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	3.1%	4.40	4.56	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	57	237	57	21	6	0%	1.8	24.1%	8.9%	15.2%	2.5%	4.40	3.57	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	2	0	2	10	0	4	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	13.50	8.17	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	2	0	2	10	0	4	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	13.50	8.17	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	2	0	2	10	0	4	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	13.50	9.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIL	38	0	40	167	36	16	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.53	4.54	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIL	13	0	14	59	13	6	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.53	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	61	13	6	2	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.53	4.16	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	83	28	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.53	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		98	4	173	788	133	101	25	4%	1.8	16.9%	12.8%	4.1%	3.2%	5.09	5.03	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	5	200	909	154	117	29	4%	1.8	16.9%	12.8%	4.1%	3.2%	5.09	5.03	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Guerrero (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	21.7%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.54	21.9%	12.1%	40	+0.01	—	—	—
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	88
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	88
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	88
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	88
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	87
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	86
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	85
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	85
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	85
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	22.5%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.86	4.73	183	85
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	653	85
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	84
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	84
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	84
Cale Coshow R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	26	SU	4.59	23.1%	10.9%	3.8%	.300	3.68	23.0%	12.8%	63	-0.91	3.08	377	84
Scott Dohmann R 2004 · 4.44 FIP	26	SU	4.44	24.7%	9.6%	4.0%	.270	4.80	20.6%	8.5%	112	+0.36	4.28	173	84
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	40	21.8%	9.7%	1.17	4.53
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99