Jesús Broca

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 23 LHP 5'8" / 183 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	17	30	4.45	1.29	30.6%	6.7%	—	K 21.6% · BB 8.1% · FIP 2.31
2025	21	MIX3 levels	39	78	3.68	3.53	21.1%	12.3%	—	K 13.7% · BB 14.8% · FIP 4.44
2026	22	AAMIL	38	58	5.25	4.56	20.9%	11.6%	—	K 16.9% · BB 12.7% · FIP 5.25
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIL	59	62	5.85	5.85	14.1%	15.3%	-0.9
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBMIL	30	32	5.58	5.49	16.1%	13.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBMIL	47	49	5.37	5.28	17.3%	13.0%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control35Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsChris Reed (age 25) · Chris Nunn (age 24) · Graeme Stinson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128136vR 144

ERA5.85

FIP5.85

K%14.1%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%-1.1%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	2	2	3	12	2	0	0	100%	1.5	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	1.69	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	2	2	3	12	2	0	0	100%	1.5	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	1.77	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	30	134	41	9	0	0%	1.8	21.6%	8.1%	13.4%	0.0%	4.45	2.31	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	30	134	41	9	0	0%	1.8	21.6%	8.1%	13.4%	0.0%	4.45	2.31	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	30	134	41	9	0	0%	1.8	30.6%	6.7%	23.9%	0.0%	4.45	1.29	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	78	341	72	42	4	0%	2.0	13.7%	14.8%	-1.1%	1.1%	3.68	4.44	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	78	341	72	42	4	0%	2.0	13.7%	14.8%	-1.1%	1.1%	3.68	4.44	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	0	78	341	72	42	4	0%	2.0	21.1%	12.3%	8.8%	1.2%	3.68	3.53	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	38	0	58	268	56	31	8	0%	1.5	16.9%	12.7%	4.2%	3.6%	5.25	5.25	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	38	0	58	268	56	31	8	0%	1.5	16.9%	12.7%	4.2%	3.6%	5.25	5.25	—
2026	22	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	38	0	58	268	56	31	8	0%	1.5	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	3.0%	5.25	4.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIL	59	0	62	262	37	40	8	0%	1.1	14.1%	15.3%	-1.1%	3.0%	5.85	5.85	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	69	0	72	305	49	42	9	0%	1.0	16.1%	13.9%	2.3%	2.9%	5.58	5.49	-0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIL	70	0	73	309	53	40	9	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.0%	4.3%	2.9%	5.37	5.28	-0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIL	70	0	73	309	55	40	9	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.8%	5.1%	2.9%	5.25	5.20	-0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIL	69	0	72	304	55	39	9	0%	1.0	18.0%	12.8%	5.2%	3.0%	5.22	5.22	-0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIL	67	0	70	295	53	38	9	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	3.1%	5.27	5.30	-0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIL	64	0	67	282	50	37	9	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.2%	4.5%	3.2%	5.37	5.43	-0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIL	60	0	63	265	46	36	9	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.5%	3.8%	3.4%	5.52	5.61	-0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	30	0	32	135	22	19	4	0%	1.1	16.1%	13.9%	2.3%	2.9%	5.58	5.49	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIL	47	0	49	207	36	27	6	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.0%	4.3%	2.9%	5.37	5.28	-0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIL	55	0	58	245	44	31	7	0%	1.1	17.9%	12.8%	5.1%	2.9%	5.25	5.20	-0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIL	59	0	62	262	47	33	8	0%	1.1	18.0%	12.8%	5.2%	3.0%	5.22	5.22	-0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIL	59	0	62	262	47	34	8	0%	1.1	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	3.1%	5.27	5.30	-0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIL	58	0	61	258	45	34	8	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.2%	4.5%	3.2%	5.37	5.43	-0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIL	55	0	58	245	42	33	8	0%	1.1	17.3%	13.5%	3.8%	3.4%	5.52	5.61	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		363	0	381	1610	283	211	50	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.1%	4.5%	3.1%	5.35	4.98	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	111	26	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.1%	4.5%	3.1%	5.35	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		96	2	170	755	123	96	13	2%	1.8	16.3%	12.6%	3.6%	1.8%	4.34	4.31	-4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	2	200	888	145	112	16	2%	1.8	16.3%	12.6%	3.6%	1.8%	4.34	4.31	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesús Broca (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.85	14.1%	15.3%	3.0%	—	5.32	17.1%	3.9%	219	-0.53	—	—	—
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	88
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	87
Graeme Stinson L 2021 · 5.66 FIP	23	SU	5.66	12.6%	12.6%	3.7%	.266	4.14	21.4%	8.7%	101	-1.52	3.56	146	86
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	85
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	83
Jeff Wallace L 2000 · 5.61 FIP	24	SU	5.61	14.6%	17.8%	2.7%	.308	4.73	16.9%	0.5%	50	-0.88	2.51	137	81
José Manuel Fernández L 2016 · 6.16 FIP	23	SU	6.16	16.4%	19.7%	3.5%	.211	4.71	17.7%	6.4%	168	-1.45	3.35	263	81
Juan Pichardo L 2021 · 4.83 FIP	23	SU	4.83	17.7%	17.1%	1.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	103	81
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.06	18.5%	7.5%	165	-1.72	3.79	281	80
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	80
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	80
Josh Mitchell L 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	14.6%	11.9%	2.8%	.325	2.90	19.0%	11.1%	44	-2.00	2.90	100	80
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	80
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	80
Justin Kelly L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	23	SU	4.96	13.4%	12.7%	2.5%	.421	3.71	19.4%	4.6%	123	-1.25	3.51	160	79
Will Gilbert L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	23	SU	4.69	12.4%	11.9%	2.1%	.339	3.64	19.2%	10.3%	122	-1.05	2.92	141	79
Wes Helsabeck L 2015 · 4.71 FIP	23	SU	4.71	14.1%	17.6%	1.0%	.241	3.69	20.3%	12.8%	76	-1.02	2.93	153	79
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	79
Dan Lietz L 2017 · 4.94 FIP	23	SU	4.94	10.2%	16.8%	1.1%	.264	5.82	11.1%	-2.1%	38	+0.88	4.43	188	78
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	69	17.1%	13.4%	1.19	5.42
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*