Wes Kath
3B Winston-Salem Dash| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+CWS | 459 | .226/.321/.409 | 16 | 6 | 46 | — | .166/.237/.315 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+/ROKCWS | 188 | .171/.246/.235 | 1 | 1 | -11 | — | .115/.176/.161 |
| 2026 | 23 | A+CWS | 89 | .244/.330/.333 | 1 | 2 | 26 | — | .173/.239/.247 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBCWS | 200 | .157/.216/.250 | 3 | 2 | 31 | -0.5 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBCWS | 47 | .163/.224/.264 | 1 | 1 | 36 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 115 | 104 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 287 | 337 | 623 | 125 | 322 | 37 | 7 | 284 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 52 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 250 | 191 | 441 | 21 | 333 | 44 | 8 | 214 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 449 | 383 | 91 | 20 | 1 | 13 | 60 | 148 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 345 | 397 | 742 | 159 | 347 | 33 | 13 | 334 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 389 | 347 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 168 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 193 | 276 | 311 | 588 | 118 | 341 | 43 | 10 | 268 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 459 | 399 | 90 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 155 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 226 | 321 | 409 | 729 | 183 | 322 | 34 | 9 | 325 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 171 | 154 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 69 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 149 | 229 | 221 | 450 | 71 | 259 | 40 | 7 | 212 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 17 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 375 | 412 | 375 | 787 | 500 | 24 | 6 | 360 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 89 | 78 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 244 | 330 | 333 | 663 | 90 | 419 | 39 | 9 | 303 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 115 | 107 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 61 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 131 | 191 | 206 | 397 | 75 | 262 | 53 | 4 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 52 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 212 | 167 | 378 | 21 | 324 | 54 | 6 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 449 | 401 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 42 | 207 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 251 | 269 | 520 | 102 | 302 | 46 | 9 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 389 | 360 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 232 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 114 | 176 | 181 | 356 | 67 | 290 | 60 | 6 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 459 | 416 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 26 | 213 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 166 | 237 | 315 | 552 | 149 | 270 | 46 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 171 | 158 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 95 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 101 | 165 | 152 | 317 | 51 | 234 | 56 | 5 | 143 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 17 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 294 | 250 | 544 | 404 | 35 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 89 | 81 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 173 | 239 | 247 | 486 | 74 | 349 | 52 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 115 | 107 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 61 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 131 | 191 | 206 | 397 | 75 | 273 | 53 | 4 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL White Sox | — | 115 | 104 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 287 | 337 | 623 | 125 | 322 | 37 | 7 | 284 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 501 | 449 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 45 | 235 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 163 | 245 | 254 | 499 | 91 | 311 | 47 | 9 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 501 | 430 | 99 | 21 | 1 | 13 | 64 | 171 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 230 | 335 | 374 | 710 | 144 | 345 | 34 | 13 | 322 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 389 | 360 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 232 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 114 | 176 | 181 | 356 | 67 | 288 | 60 | 6 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 389 | 347 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 168 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 193 | 276 | 311 | 588 | 118 | 341 | 43 | 10 | 268 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 459 | 416 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 26 | 213 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 166 | 237 | 315 | 552 | 149 | 284 | 46 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 459 | 399 | 90 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 155 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 226 | 321 | 409 | 729 | 183 | 322 | 34 | 9 | 325 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 188 | 175 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 101 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 120 | 176 | 166 | 342 | 46 | 270 | 54 | 4 | 152 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 188 | 170 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 73 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 246 | 235 | 481 | 65 | 289 | 39 | 7 | 226 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 89 | 81 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 173 | 239 | 247 | 486 | 74 | 371 | 52 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 89 | 78 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 244 | 330 | 333 | 663 | 90 | 419 | 39 | 9 | 303 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 115 | 106 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 61 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 132 | 191 | 208 | 399 | 75 | 262 | 53 | 4 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 501 | 447 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 45 | 235 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 163 | 245 | 255 | 500 | 92 | 304 | 47 | 9 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 389 | 359 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 232 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 114 | 176 | 181 | 357 | 67 | 290 | 60 | 6 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 459 | 417 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 26 | 213 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 165 | 237 | 314 | 552 | 149 | 270 | 46 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 188 | 174 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 101 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 121 | 176 | 167 | 343 | 46 | 249 | 54 | 4 | 152 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 89 | 82 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 171 | 239 | 244 | 483 | 73 | 349 | 52 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 459 | 417 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 26 | 213 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 165 | 237 | 314 | 552 | 149 | 270 | 46 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 188 | 174 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 101 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 121 | 176 | 167 | 343 | 46 | 249 | 54 | 4 | 152 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 89 | 82 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 171 | 239 | 244 | 483 | 73 | 349 | 52 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | CWS | 0% | 200 | 184 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 86 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 157 | 216 | 250 | 466 | 92 | 266 | 43 | 5 | 213 | 31 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | CWS | 30% | 154 | 142 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 65 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 163 | 223 | 262 | 485 | 99 | 268 | 42 | 5 | 221 | 36 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | CWS | 30% | 47 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 163 | 224 | 264 | 487 | 100 | 269 | 43 | 6 | 222 | 36 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 47 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 163 | 234 | 256 | 490 | 93 | 273 | 43 | 6 | 222 | 24 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 97 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 277 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 163 | 234 | 257 | 491 | 94 | 273 | 43 | 6 | 222 | 24 | -50 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1984 | 1812 | 268 | 51 | 5 | 36 | 126 | 991 | 34 | 22 | 5 | 148 | 217 | 241 | 458 | 93 | 292 | 50 | 6 | 204 | 24 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 41 | 325 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 150 | 218 | 246 | 464 | 96 | 296 | 50 | 6 | 204 | 24 | -51 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 89 PAwOBA .299 → .207 (−91)K% 39.3% → 51.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 51.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 5.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.25% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 27.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 7.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.02% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .299 → .207; ISO .090 → .063; BABIP .419 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 171 PAwOBA .209 → .143 (−65)K% 40.4% → 55.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.35% | ÷0.955 | ×1.310 | — | — | 55.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.02% | ÷0.949 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 4.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.34% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.47% | ÷0.942 | ×0.870 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 15.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.41% | ÷0.984 | ×0.780 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 7.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.850 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.18% | ÷0.923 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.12% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 88, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .209 → .143; ISO .071 → .047; BABIP .259 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL White Sox · 17 PAwOBA .351 → .246 (−105)K% 23.5% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.994 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 3.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 50.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 40.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.128 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .351 → .246; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .500 → .404. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 459 PAwOBA .318 → .236 (−82)K% 33.8% → 46.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.77% | ÷0.952 | ×1.310 | — | — | 46.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.37% | ÷1.006 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.83% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 2.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.90% | ÷0.972 | ×0.870 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 18.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.61% | ÷1.070 | ×0.780 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 6.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.56% | ÷0.817 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 7.15% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 94, 2B 114, 3B 86, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .318 → .236; ISO .183 → .153; BABIP .322 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 389 PAwOBA .263 → .167 (−96)K% 43.2% → 59.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 43.19% | ÷0.948 | ×1.310 | — | — | 59.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.51% | ÷0.943 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 6.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.58% | ÷1.011 | ×0.870 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 21.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.26% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 5.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.008 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.47% | ÷1.017 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 3.97% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 102, K 90, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .263 → .167; ISO .118 → .073; BABIP .341 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 449 PAwOBA .328 → .231 (−97)K% 33.0% → 46.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.96% | ÷0.972 | ×1.360 | — | — | 46.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.36% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.26% | ÷1.050 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×1.030 | 21.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.51% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×0.994 | ×1.030 | 7.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.994 | ×1.030 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.53% | ÷1.172 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.89% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 110, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .328 → .231; ISO .159 → .102; BABIP .347 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABirmingham Barons · 52 PAwOBA .209 → .165 (−44)K% 44.2% → 54.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 44.23% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 54.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.993 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 5.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 28.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 89, 3B 97, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .209 → .165; ISO .021 → .018; BABIP .333 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL White Sox · 115 PAwOBA .276 → .171 (−106)K% 36.5% → 53.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.52% | ÷0.992 | ×1.440 | — | — | 53.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.96% | ÷0.990 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 4.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.42% | ÷1.025 | ×0.820 | ×1.045 | ×1.008 | 23.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | ×1.045 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.045 | ×1.008 | 2.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.84% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.70% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .276 → .171; ISO .125 → .069; BABIP .322 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).