Brad Lord
P
Washington Nationals
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 91
ERA3.98
FIP3.98
K%20.3%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p4221.0%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
SL+0.7 (35%)
FB (59%)
SI (23%)
CH-1.2 (5%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 17 | 105 | 453 | 84 | 28 | 4 | 63% | 3.9 | 14.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 4.04 | 3.58 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 17 | 105 | 453 | 84 | 28 | 4 | 63% | 3.9 | 18.5% | 6.2% | 12.4% | 0.9% | 4.04 | 2.79 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 130 | 533 | 135 | 49 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 2.43 | 3.42 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 130 | 533 | 135 | 49 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 25.3% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 1.5% | 2.43 | 2.95 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 48 | 19 | 131 | 546 | 108 | 43 | 17 | 40% | 2.7 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.14 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 48 | 19 | 131 | 546 | 108 | 43 | 17 | 40% | 2.7 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.13 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 27 | 1 | 58 | 248 | 52 | 19 | 7 | 4% | 2.1 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 53 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 53 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 120 | 510 | 105 | 40 | 15 | — | — | 20.6% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 3.92 | +2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 120 | 507 | 105 | 40 | 15 | — | — | 20.8% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 3.92 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 126 | 0 | 133 | 560 | 113 | 46 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 126 | 0 | 133 | 560 | 112 | 46 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 120 | 0 | 126 | 532 | 107 | 43 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 120 | 0 | 126 | 532 | 107 | 44 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +1.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 374 | 20 | 503 | 2120 | 427 | 170 | 63 | 5% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.05 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 8 | 200 | 843 | 170 | 68 | 25 | 5% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.05 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 127 | 62 | 423 | 1780 | 338 | 143 | 40 | 49% | 3.3 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 3.62 | 3.74 | +8.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 29 | 200 | 842 | 160 | 67 | 19 | 49% | 3.3 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 3.62 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brad Lord (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.46 | 20.1% | 11.9% | 265 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 79 |
| Adam Warren R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 1.7% | .272 | 3.73 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 174 | +0.42 | 2.71 | 392 | 78 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 78 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.37 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 2.1% | .309 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.39 | 2.72 | 530 | 78 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 75 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.91 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.00 | 3.91 | 223 | 75 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.64 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.74 | 459 | 74 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 73 |
| Jose Pina R 2029 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 72 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 71 |
| Rafael Montero R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .339 | 3.46 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.39 | 2.38 | 663 | 71 |
| Sean Hjelle R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.58 | 16.6% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .315 | 3.19 | 21.3% | 16.2% | 163 | -1.39 | 2.95 | 670 | 71 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.20 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.46 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.74 | 3.46 | 274 | 71 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .262 | 3.81 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 472 | 71 |
| Seth Lugo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.02 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 2.7% | .308 | 3.01 | 25.3% | 20.1% | 296 | -1.01 | 2.19 | 1,320 | 71 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.43 | 22.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .277 | 4.89 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 52 | +0.46 | 2.52 | 826 | 71 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.58 | 18.3% | 10.3% | 1.3% | .317 | 4.69 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 130 | +1.11 | 3.58 | 426 | 71 |
| Kurt Heyer R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.03 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 178 | 70 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 70 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 128 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 1.14 | 4.45 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |