Brad Lord — OGILVIE

Brad Lord P Washington Nationals

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA4.01

FIP4.01

K%20.5%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p1019.4%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

SL+0.7 (34%)

FB (61%)

SI (23%)

CH-1.2 (5%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	17	105	453	84	28	4	63%	3.9	14.0%	7.2%	6.8%	1.2%	4.04	3.51	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	17	105	453	84	28	4	63%	3.9	14.0%	7.2%	6.8%	1.2%	4.04	3.51	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	17	105	453	84	28	4	63%	3.9	18.5%	6.2%	12.4%	0.9%	4.04	2.79	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	130	533	135	49	8	100%	5.2	21.0%	8.4%	12.6%	1.8%	2.43	3.39	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	130	533	135	49	8	100%	5.2	21.0%	8.4%	12.6%	1.8%	2.43	3.39	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	130	533	135	49	8	100%	5.2	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	1.5%	2.43	2.95	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	48	19	131	546	108	43	17	40%	2.7	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.14	+0.6
2025	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	48	19	131	546	108	43	17	40%	2.7	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.14	+0.6
2025	25	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	48	19	131	546	108	43	17	40%	2.7	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.13	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	24	208	883	179	71	27	28%	2.5	20.3%	8.0%	12.2%	3.1%	4.23	4.09	+1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	38	5	79	340	73	28	10	13%	2.1	21.1%	8.3%	12.8%	3.0%	4.00	4.00	+0.5
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	38	5	79	340	73	28	10	13%	2.1	21.1%	8.3%	12.8%	3.0%	4.00	4.00	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	WSH	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	WSH	37	5	78	337	71	28	10	14%	2.1	21.1%	8.3%	12.8%	3.0%	4.06	4.00	+0.5
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	WSH	37	5	78	337	71	28	10	14%	2.1	21.1%	8.3%	12.8%	3.0%	4.06	4.00	+0.5
ROS	26	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	5	2	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.2%	12.2%	2.9%	4.01	4.01	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.2%	12.2%	2.9%	4.01	4.01	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	84	363	78	30	11	—	—	21.4%	8.2%	13.2%	2.9%	4.00	4.00	+0.8
FULL	26	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	83	351	78	30	11	—	—	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	3.0%	4.05	3.98	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	126	0	133	560	114	47	17	0%	1.1	20.3%	8.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.44	4.45	+0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	126	0	133	560	113	47	17	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.7%	3.1%	4.50	4.54	+0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	121	0	127	535	105	46	17	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.70	-0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	113	0	119	503	95	45	17	0%	1.1	18.9%	9.0%	9.9%	3.4%	4.79	4.90	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	120	0	126	532	108	44	16	0%	1.1	20.3%	8.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.44	4.45	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	120	0	126	532	107	45	16	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.7%	3.1%	4.50	4.54	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	114	0	120	507	99	44	16	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.70	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	108	0	113	477	90	43	16	0%	1.0	18.9%	9.0%	9.9%	3.4%	4.79	4.90	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		553	24	699	2956	589	249	93	4%	1.3	19.9%	8.4%	11.5%	3.1%	4.47	4.20	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		158	7	200	845	168	71	27	4%	1.3	19.9%	8.4%	11.5%	3.1%	4.47	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		138	66	444	1872	355	149	42	48%	3.2	19.0%	7.9%	11.0%	2.3%	3.65	3.75	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	30	200	844	160	67	19	48%	3.2	19.0%	7.9%	11.0%	2.3%	3.65	3.75	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brad Lord (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	19.5%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.56	20.0%	11.5%	392	+0.10	—	—	—
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	79
Adam Warren R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	27	SW	3.32	19.5%	7.1%	1.8%	.272	3.72	21.9%	14.4%	174	+0.40	2.72	392	78
Alex Colomé R 2015 · 3.33 FIP	26	SW	3.33	19.3%	5.9%	2.0%	.309	2.95	25.5%	19.3%	191	-0.38	2.72	530	77
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	77
Ariel Peña R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.92	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.18	3.74	223	76
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	75
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	74
Tyler Thornburg R 2015 · 5.59 FIP	26	SW	5.59	15.4%	8.9%	4.9%	.295	3.65	28.7%	19.3%	104	-1.94	2.56	301	73
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	73
Sean Hjelle R 2023 · 4.57 FIP	26	SP-	4.57	15.9%	8.4%	3.2%	.315	3.17	20.8%	16.0%	163	-1.40	2.92	670	72
Rafael Montero R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	22.0%	11.2%	2.2%	.339	3.41	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.47	2.43	670	72
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	72
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	71
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	71
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	71
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	71
Jordan Lyles R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	26	SW	4.70	17.7%	6.9%	4.0%	.340	4.36	21.7%	13.5%	286	-0.34	3.44	1,080	71
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	71
Brooks Hall R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	14.2%	6.7%	2.8%	.284	3.45	13.6%	6.2%	55	-0.85	3.45	274	71
Logan Verrett R 2016 · 5.19 FIP	26	SW	5.19	15.4%	10.6%	3.7%	.283	4.65	17.8%	11.8%	94	-0.54	3.81	550	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	128	19.7%	8.5%	1.20	4.56
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54