Brad Lord

P Washington Nationals

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	25	25	130	2.43	2.95	25.3%	9.2%	—	K 21.3% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.36
2025	25	MLBWSH	48	19	131	4.34	4.13	19.8%	7.9%	0.7
2026	26	MIX2 levels	41	5	84	3.74	3.84	21.9%	8.3%	0.7	K 21.6% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.88
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	65	0	68	4.36	4.44	20.2%	8.4%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBWSH	47	0	49	4.46	4.53	20.0%	8.6%	0.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBWSH	35	0	37	4.60	4.69	19.4%	8.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs57

FB Velo51

K%46

Form3.94 ERA (proj 4.36) · K 24.3% (proj 20.2%) · BB 8.6% (proj 8.4%) ▲ last 60d · 16 IP through Oct 27

CompsJoaquín Benoit (age 27) · Roberto Gómez (age 27) · Cory Lidle (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 95

ERA4.36

FIP4.44

K%20.2%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p1019.7%

p4621.6%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	17	105	453	84	28	4	63%	3.9	14.0%	7.2%	6.8%	1.2%	4.04	3.51	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	17	105	453	84	28	4	63%	3.9	18.5%	6.2%	12.4%	0.9%	4.04	2.79	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	130	533	135	49	8	100%	5.2	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	1.8%	2.43	3.36	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	130	533	135	49	8	100%	5.2	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	1.8%	2.43	3.36	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	130	533	135	49	8	100%	5.2	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	1.5%	2.43	2.95	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	48	19	131	546	108	43	17	40%	2.7	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.14	+0.6
2025	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	48	19	131	546	108	43	17	40%	2.7	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.14	+0.6
2025	25	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	48	19	131	546	108	43	17	40%	2.7	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.13	+0.7
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	5	84	360	79	30	10	12%	2.1	21.6%	8.4%	13.2%	2.8%	3.74	3.88	+0.7
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	5	84	360	79	30	10	12%	2.1	21.6%	8.4%	13.2%	2.8%	3.74	3.88	+0.7
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	5	84	360	79	30	10	12%	2.1	21.9%	8.3%	13.6%	2.8%	3.74	3.84	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			88	24	214	903	185	73	27	27%	2.4	20.5%	8.1%	12.4%	3.0%	4.12	4.03	+1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	65	0	68	287	58	24	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	2.9%	4.36	4.44	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	49	0	52	218	44	19	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.46	4.53	+0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	37	0	39	163	32	14	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.8%	10.7%	3.2%	4.60	4.69	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	27	0	29	121	23	11	4	0%	1.1	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	3.4%	4.78	4.90	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	47	0	49	207	41	18	6	0%	1.0	20.0%	8.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.46	4.53	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	35	0	37	156	30	14	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	8.8%	10.7%	3.2%	4.60	4.69	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	26	0	27	114	21	10	4	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	3.4%	4.78	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		196	24	327	1380	278	115	42	12%	1.7	20.2%	8.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.28	4.12	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		120	15	200	844	170	70	26	12%	1.7	20.2%	8.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.28	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		141	66	449	1892	363	151	42	47%	3.2	19.2%	8.0%	11.2%	2.2%	3.61	3.72	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	29	200	842	161	67	19	47%	3.2	19.2%	8.0%	11.2%	2.2%	3.61	3.72	+0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 71 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.37 (+0.71)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.810	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.36%	—	×1.100	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷0.990	×1.200	1.76%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 55 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.35 (+0.28)K% 23.8% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.75%	—	×0.860	20.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×0.900	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷0.986	×1.100	1.86%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 62 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.67 (+0.69)K% 16.6% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.60%	—	×0.740	12.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.79%	—	×1.180	8.02%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷0.917	×1.300	1.07%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 43 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.29 (+0.73)K% 21.3% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.28%	—	×0.770	16.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.32%	—	×1.150	6.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.913	×1.250	1.46%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brad Lord (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	20.2%	8.4%	2.9%	—	4.67	19.5%	10.8%	119	+0.23	—	—	—
Joaquín Benoit R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	27	SP-	4.49	20.8%	6.8%	4.2%	.302	3.31	23.7%	14.5%	249	-1.18	1.99	1,064	77
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	74
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	73
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	72
David Phelps R 2014 · 4.00 FIP	27	SP-	4.00	18.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.293	3.31	23.8%	15.6%	254	-0.69	2.50	672	71
Noah Davis R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	18.5%	8.4%	2.3%	.368	5.10	18.3%	7.9%	183	+1.22	3.76	596	70
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	70
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	69
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	69
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	69
Ben Lively R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	27	SW	4.99	20.8%	9.5%	4.5%	.312	3.30	20.9%	12.1%	77	-1.69	3.30	1,089	69
Mike Wright Jr. R 2017 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	19.5%	7.4%	2.6%	.298	3.96	19.5%	11.4%	172	+0.14	3.76	725	69
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	69
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	69
Jesse Litsch R 2011 · 4.11 FIP	26	SW	4.11	20.8%	8.2%	3.1%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.09	409	68
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	68
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	68
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	68
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	68
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	67	20.1%	8.5%	1.17	4.30
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Steve Wilson ('88-'93, 0 WAR*)	1.7	69	21.6%*	8.8%*	1.25*	4.84*
Aaron Heilman ('11)	3.1	70	20.1%	9.4%	1.03	4.40
Pete Mikkelsen ('64-'72, 1 WAR*)	3.3	73	20.1%*	9.3%*	1.12*	4.15*
Matt Wise ('08)	1.6	53	18.1%	7.9%	1.14	4.23
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09