Brad Lord
P
Washington Nationals
+1.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.2 · 2026
ERA4.41
FIP4.46
xFIP3.84
SIERA3.37
K%20.5%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%12.2%
IP131
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p3122.6%
K%
p1216.7%
xwOBA vs
p240.343
SL+0.7 (30%)
FB (62%)
SI (24%)
CH-1.2 (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 27 | 17 | 105 | 453 | 84 | 28 | 4 | 14.0% | 7.2% | 1.2% | 4.04 | 3.50 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 25 | 25 | 130 | 533 | 135 | 49 | 8 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 1.8% | 2.43 | 3.41 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 48 | 19 | 131 | 546 | 108 | 43 | 17 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.34 | 4.31 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 7 | 0 | 16 | 67 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 17.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.60 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 90 | 34 | 14 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 4.15 | 4.14 | +1.4 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 122 | 514 | 102 | 37 | 17 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.21 | 4.20 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 98 | 38 | 16 | 20.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 108 | 458 | 92 | 35 | 15 | 20.0% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 98 | 416 | 81 | 32 | 14 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.63 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 71 | 30 | 13 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 80 | 337 | 69 | 24 | 12 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.56 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 59 | 22 | 11 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.65 | 4.67 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 51 | 20 | 10 | 19.1% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 43 | 18 | 9 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 36 | 16 | 8 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 5.00 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 30 | 15 | 7 | 16.9% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 5.15 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 61 | 381 | 1599 | 298 | 127 | 37 | 18.6% | 7.9% | 2.3% | 3.62 | 3.79 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 32 | 200 | 840 | 157 | 67 | 19 | 18.6% | 7.9% | 2.3% | 3.62 | 3.79 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brad Lord (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.2% | 323 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.54 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.56 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.98 | 2.84 | 484 | 83 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 83 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 83 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 83 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 82 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 82 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.69 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .290 | 3.66 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 57 | -1.03 | 2.39 | 396 | 82 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 80 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 80 |
| Frank Batista R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 80 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 334 | 80 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 80 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 80 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.89 | 3.45 | 274 | 79 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 79 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 79 |
| Tyler Thornburg R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.70 | 15.4% | 8.9% | 5.1% | .295 | 3.66 | 28.7% | 19.3% | 104 | -2.04 | 2.59 | 301 | 79 |
| Nick Petree R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.15 | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 122 | 79 |
| Mike Augliera R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 114 | 79 |
| Colin Bates R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.57 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 111 | 78 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$7M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $8M | $27M | +$19M | ||