Nate Dahle — OGILVIE

Nate Dahle P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%21.3%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	0	3	12	3	1	0	0%	0.9	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.75	2.04	—
2022	24	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	3	0	3	12	3	1	0	0%	0.9	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.75	1.98	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	44	172	49	11	5	0%	1.5	21.7%	7.7%	14.0%	3.9%	2.47	4.40	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	44	172	49	11	5	0%	1.5	21.7%	7.7%	14.0%	3.9%	2.47	4.40	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	44	172	49	11	5	0%	1.5	28.5%	6.4%	22.1%	2.9%	2.47	3.10	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	51	218	58	16	5	0%	1.6	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.06	3.97	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	51	218	58	16	5	0%	1.6	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.06	3.97	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	51	218	58	16	5	0%	1.6	26.6%	7.3%	19.3%	2.3%	4.06	3.04	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	TB	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.42	4.42	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TB	30	0	32	133	28	12	4	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.2%	4.49	4.54	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.2%	4.49	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	40	9	4	1	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.2%	4.49	4.16	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	84	21	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.2%	4.49	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		64	0	97	402	85	32	13	0%	1.5	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	3.2%	3.42	4.10	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	826	175	66	27	0%	1.5	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	3.2%	3.42	4.10	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Dahle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	21.3%	8.4%	3.0%	—	4.54	21.3%	12.6%	32	+0.12	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	88
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	87
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	86
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	86
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	85
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	85
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	85
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	84
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	84
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	83
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	83
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	83
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	83
J.J. Hoover R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	22.6%	8.6%	4.2%	.350	5.77	20.3%	10.0%	137	+1.21	4.22	258	82
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	82
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	82
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	81
Chris Martin R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	29	SU	3.24	18.1%	7.0%	1.4%	.319	3.04	20.9%	19.2%	42	-0.20	1.76	416	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	21.3%	8.6%	1.21	4.45
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79