Nate Dahle
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
+0.3
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%13.6%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 29 | 0 | 44 | 172 | 49 | 11 | 5 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 2.47 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 32 | 0 | 51 | 218 | 58 | 16 | 5 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | TB | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TB | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | TB | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 22.0% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | TB | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | TB | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 34 | 16 | 6 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | TB | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | TB | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 0 | 97 | 402 | 85 | 32 | 13 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 3.42 | 4.08 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 0 | 200 | 826 | 175 | 66 | 27 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 3.42 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nate Dahle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.48 | 22.5% | 13.2% | 134 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 91 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 87 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 86 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 84 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 84 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 84 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 83 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 83 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.25 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .247 | 4.33 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 39 | +1.08 | 3.25 | 160 | 82 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 82 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 82 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.61 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | .350 | 5.75 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 82 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 82 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 81 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.54 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .277 | 3.88 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | +0.34 | 2.86 | 596 | 81 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | .307 | 6.39 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.43 | 2.85 | 299 | 81 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 81 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.30 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .271 | 2.97 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.54 | 521 | 81 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 283 | 80 |
| Trevin Michael R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.