Nate Dahle
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
Age 28
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 100
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
K%22.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP33
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 2.04 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 1.98 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 44 | 172 | 49 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 14.0% | 3.7% | 2.47 | 4.28 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 44 | 172 | 49 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.5% | 6.4% | 22.1% | 2.9% | 2.47 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 51 | 218 | 58 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.00 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 51 | 218 | 58 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 19.3% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 3.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | TB | 32 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 30 | 0 | 32 | 133 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.13 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 84 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 64 | 0 | 97 | 402 | 85 | 32 | 13 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 3.42 | 4.06 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 0 | 200 | 826 | 175 | 66 | 26 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 3.42 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nate Dahle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.51 | 22.5% | 13.2% | 32 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 90 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 86 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 85 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 85 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 85 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 84 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 83 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.4% | .350 | 5.85 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.16 | 4.26 | 258 | 83 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 83 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 82 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.32 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .271 | 2.99 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.51 | 544 | 82 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 82 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .358 | 4.01 | 29.4% | 19.3% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.17 | 205 | 82 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.18 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .307 | 6.22 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.04 | 2.75 | 299 | 82 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 82 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 81 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 81 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 81 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .277 | 3.68 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | -0.06 | 2.78 | 596 | 81 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 3.4% | .275 | 3.73 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 103 | -0.47 | 2.59 | 309 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 32 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.21 | 4.42 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |