Christian McGowan

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX4 levels	9	9	26	3.86	2.59	25.9%	9.3%	—	K 20.1% · BB 8.8% · FIP 2.52
2024	24	MIX3 levels	14	11	40	5.36	4.41	24.9%	12.2%	—	K 18.9% · BB 13.8% · FIP 5.34
2026	26	MIX3 levels	45	1	54	3.48	3.82	22.6%	9.6%	—	K 18.7% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.23
2027PROJ	27	MLBPHI	25	0	26	4.79	4.79	19.7%	10.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBPHI	9	0	9	4.79	4.82	19.9%	10.8%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Grant Black (age 27) · Tyler Yates (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%19.7%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	1	5	18	8	1	0	25%	1.2	44.4%	5.6%	38.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.05	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	1	5	18	8	1	0	25%	1.2	44.4%	5.6%	38.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.50	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	2	2	7	29	7	2	1	100%	3.7	24.1%	6.9%	17.2%	3.4%	4.91	3.83	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	2	2	7	29	7	2	1	100%	3.7	24.1%	6.9%	17.2%	3.4%	4.91	3.78	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	9	26	108	28	10	1	100%	2.9	20.1%	8.8%	11.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.52	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	9	9	26	108	28	10	1	100%	2.9	25.9%	9.3%	16.7%	0.9%	3.86	2.59	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	11	40	189	47	23	6	79%	2.9	18.9%	13.8%	5.1%	3.8%	5.36	5.34	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	11	40	189	47	23	6	79%	2.9	18.9%	13.8%	5.1%	3.8%	5.36	5.34	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	11	40	189	47	23	6	79%	2.9	24.9%	12.2%	12.7%	3.2%	5.36	4.41	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	1	54	239	54	23	6	2%	1.2	18.7%	10.7%	8.0%	2.5%	3.48	4.23	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	1	54	239	54	23	6	2%	1.2	18.7%	10.7%	8.0%	2.5%	3.48	4.23	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	1	54	239	54	23	6	2%	1.2	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	2.5%	3.48	3.82	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	PHI	25	0	26	110	22	12	3	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.79	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	PHI	24	0	25	105	21	11	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	3.0%	4.79	4.82	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	PHI	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	3.0%	4.79	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	40	8	4	1	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	3.0%	4.79	4.44	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	86	21	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	3.0%	4.79	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		74	24	133	583	117	64	14	32%	1.8	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	2.4%	4.07	4.12	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	36	200	879	177	97	21	32%	1.8	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	2.4%	4.07	4.12	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian McGowan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	19.7%	10.8%	2.9%	—	4.82	19.9%	9.1%	25	+0.03	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	80
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	79
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	79
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	78
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	78
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	78
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	78
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	78
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	78
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	78
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	78
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	78
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	77
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	77
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	77
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	19.8%	10.8%	1.15	4.79
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*