Chayce McDermott

P Syracuse Mets

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEFG #958

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	23	22	104	3.89	3.56	32.2%	13.6%	1.7	K 28.3% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.80
2025	26	MIX3 levels	30	12	68	7.38	5.21	22.2%	17.6%	-0.5	K 19.2% · BB 15.8% · FIP 4.99
2026	27	MIX2 levels	45	1	49	4.22	3.51	31.9%	14.6%	0.6	K 29.9% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.27
2027PROJ	28	MLBNYM	132	0	139	4.98	4.65	26.1%	14.9%	-0.2
2028PROJ61% MLB	29	MLBNYM	77	0	81	4.82	4.74	25.5%	14.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ72% MLB	30	MLBNYM	85	0	89	4.84	4.88	24.9%	14.2%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsCarlos Torres (age 27) · Jose De La Torre (age 27) · Peyton Gray (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.98

FIP4.65

K%26.1%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP139

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD3040

K†6060

CH (5%)

CU (1%)

FB-2.8 (54%)

SL-4.9 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	21	85	40	11	3	57%	3.0	33.0%	15.9%	17.1%	4.5%	2.95	4.79	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	4	21	85	40	11	3	57%	3.0	47.1%	12.9%	34.1%	3.5%	2.95	2.73	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	104	457	160	64	17	67%	3.8	27.3%	15.9%	11.4%	4.2%	5.56	5.13	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	104	457	160	64	17	67%	3.8	35.0%	14.0%	21.0%	3.7%	5.56	4.00	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	119	492	152	68	9	85%	4.6	25.7%	14.2%	11.4%	1.9%	3.10	3.77	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	119	492	152	68	9	85%	4.6	30.9%	13.8%	17.1%	1.8%	3.10	3.24	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	456	147	62	12	96%	4.5	28.3%	12.3%	15.9%	2.8%	3.89	3.80	+1.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	456	147	62	12	96%	4.5	28.3%	12.3%	15.9%	2.8%	3.89	3.80	+1.4
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	104	456	147	62	12	96%	4.5	32.2%	13.6%	18.6%	2.6%	3.89	3.56	+1.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	12	68	324	72	57	9	40%	2.3	19.2%	15.8%	3.4%	2.8%	7.38	4.99	-0.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	12	68	324	72	57	9	40%	2.3	19.2%	15.8%	3.4%	2.8%	7.38	4.99	-0.4
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	12	68	324	72	57	9	40%	2.3	22.2%	17.6%	4.6%	2.8%	7.38	5.21	-0.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	49	226	72	33	5	2%	1.1	29.9%	13.7%	16.1%	1.7%	4.22	3.27	+0.7
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	49	226	72	33	5	2%	1.1	29.9%	13.7%	16.1%	1.7%	4.22	3.27	+0.7
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	49	226	72	33	5	2%	1.1	31.9%	14.6%	17.3%	2.2%	4.22	3.51	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	2	20	105	18	18	6	20%	2.0	17.1%	17.1%	0.0%	5.7%	10.18	7.82	-0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	NYM	132	0	139	587	153	87	16	0%	1.1	26.1%	14.9%	11.2%	2.7%	4.98	4.65	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYM	126	0	133	560	143	81	16	0%	1.1	25.5%	14.4%	11.1%	2.9%	4.82	4.74	-0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYM	119	0	125	527	131	75	16	0%	1.0	24.9%	14.2%	10.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.88	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYM	77	0	81	342	87	49	10	0%	1.1	25.5%	14.4%	11.1%	2.9%	4.82	4.74	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYM	85	0	89	376	93	53	12	0%	1.0	24.9%	14.2%	10.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.88	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	2	190	822	198	120	28	1%	1.1	24.1%	14.6%	9.5%	3.3%	5.40	4.76	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	2	200	865	208	126	29	1%	1.1	24.1%	14.6%	9.5%	3.3%	5.40	4.76	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		158	79	465	2040	538	295	58	50%	2.9	26.4%	14.4%	11.9%	2.8%	4.56	4.26	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	34	200	877	231	127	25	50%	2.9	26.4%	14.4%	11.9%	2.8%	4.56	4.26	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chayce McDermott (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	26.1%	14.9%	2.7%	—	4.81	25.2%	10.9%	257	+0.16	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	63
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	62
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	62
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	61
David Lebron R 2021 · 5.56 FIP	27	SU	5.56	26.7%	14.7%	5.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	144	61
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	60
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	60
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	59
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	59
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	59
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	59
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	59
Mayckol Guaipe R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	26.0%	7.6%	4.2%	.432	—	—	—	—	—	1.88	136	58
Shawn Dubin R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	23.7%	12.6%	1.5%	.326	4.60	19.3%	11.7%	34	+1.09	3.02	341	58
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	58
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	58
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	58
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	57
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	57
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	139	25.0%	14.7%	1.18	5.14
Tiny Osborne ('22-'25, -0 WAR*)	3.2	162	25.2%*	12.8%*	1.02*	4.97*
Howard Mills ('34-'40, -1 WAR*)	2.2	145	28.2%*	12.6%*	1.24*	5.28*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Ferdie Schupp ('13-'22, 4 WAR*)	5.3	132	27.9%*	13.2%*	1.25*	4.83*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44