Tyson Guerrero

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 28 LHP 6'1" / 188 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #660

Scout OFP40ETA2029FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	27	25	123	4.54	3.86	23.1%	10.7%	—	K 18.8% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.52
2025	26	AAAKC	3	3	11	5.91	2.44	32.7%	8.2%	—	K 32.7% · BB 8.2% · FIP 2.50
2026	27	MIX3 levels	21	1	30	5.70	3.77	26.3%	12.8%	—	K 23.9% · BB 15.5% · FIP 5.58
2027PROJ	28	MLBKC	24	24	143	4.98	4.98	21.4%	12.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBKC	7	7	43	4.98	5.03	21.2%	12.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBKC	11	11	66	5.06	5.15	20.9%	12.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command50FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsTyler Alexander (age 27) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27) · Hogan Harris (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%21.4%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP143

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	7	17	73	20	8	2	78%	1.9	27.4%	11.0%	16.4%	2.7%	4.76	3.68	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	7	17	73	20	8	2	78%	1.9	27.4%	11.0%	16.4%	2.7%	4.76	3.69	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	6	6	23	106	22	10	5	100%	3.9	16.0%	10.8%	5.1%	5.6%	6.17	6.22	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	6	6	23	106	22	10	5	100%	3.9	20.8%	9.4%	11.3%	4.7%	6.17	5.29	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	95	391	121	34	12	95%	4.5	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	3.5%	3.97	4.26	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	95	391	121	34	12	95%	4.5	30.9%	8.7%	22.3%	3.1%	3.97	3.27	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	123	533	123	57	13	93%	4.6	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	2.9%	4.54	4.52	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	123	533	123	57	13	93%	4.6	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	2.9%	4.54	4.52	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	123	533	123	57	13	93%	4.6	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.4%	4.54	3.86	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	11	49	16	4	1	100%	3.6	32.7%	8.2%	24.5%	2.0%	5.91	2.50	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	11	49	16	4	1	100%	3.6	32.7%	8.2%	24.5%	2.0%	5.91	2.50	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	11	49	16	4	1	100%	3.6	32.7%	8.2%	24.5%	2.0%	5.91	2.44	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	30	133	35	17	3	5%	1.4	23.9%	15.5%	8.4%	4.6%	5.70	5.58	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	30	133	35	17	3	5%	1.4	23.9%	15.5%	8.4%	4.6%	5.70	5.58	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	1	30	133	35	17	3	5%	1.4	26.3%	12.8%	13.5%	2.3%	5.70	3.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	KC	24	24	143	604	129	75	19	100%	6.0	21.4%	12.4%	8.9%	3.1%	4.98	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	137	577	122	70	19	100%	5.9	21.2%	12.2%	9.0%	3.3%	4.98	5.03	-0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	128	542	113	66	19	100%	6.1	20.9%	12.2%	8.8%	3.5%	5.06	5.15	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	43	182	38	22	6	100%	6.1	21.2%	12.2%	9.0%	3.3%	4.98	5.03	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	66	279	58	34	10	100%	6.0	20.9%	12.2%	8.8%	3.5%	5.06	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	109	459	96	56	16	100%	6.0	21.0%	12.2%	8.8%	3.4%	5.03	4.73	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	177	103	29	100%	6.0	21.0%	12.2%	8.8%	3.4%	5.03	4.73	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		87	62	299	1285	278	142	44	71%	3.4	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	3.4%	4.66	4.57	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	41	200	859	186	95	30	71%	3.4	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	3.4%	4.66	4.57	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyson Guerrero (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	21.4%	12.4%	3.1%	—	5.09	21.1%	8.9%	265	+0.11	—	—	—
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	74
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	72
Hogan Harris L 2024 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	20.3%	11.8%	2.9%	.312	3.42	26.7%	15.1%	150	-1.04	3.09	501	70
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	69
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	66
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	65
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	65
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	65
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	63
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	63
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	62
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	62
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	61
Andy Oliver L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	28	SP-	3.93	19.9%	9.9%	2.3%	.321	7.12	16.6%	2.7%	21	+3.19	3.93	187	60
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	60
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	60
Tommy Shirley L 2016 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	147	59
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	59
Darrell May L 2002 · 5.40 FIP	30	SP-	5.40	16.4%	8.1%	4.8%	.284	5.02	13.5%	7.2%	462	-0.38	4.24	657	59
Rio Gomez L 2023 · 5.24 FIP	28	SP-	5.24	21.6%	11.9%	4.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.54	246	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	136	21.2%	12.3%	1.27	5.01
Rip Hagerman ('09-'16, 0 WAR*)	2.2	144	21.2%*	11.8%*	1.44*	4.55*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Mysterious Walker ('10-'15, -1 WAR*)	1.5	99	20.6%*	11.4%*	1.25*	5.38*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14