Austin Smith

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #899

ETA2029FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	26	1	26	6.92	4.87	19.3%	17.8%	—	K 13.7% · BB 23.5% · FIP 6.56
2025	26	MIX2 levels	44	0	47	3.42	3.86	23.7%	10.8%	—	K 17.5% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.54
2026	27	AACOL	38	0	48	3.75	4.06	23.9%	17.0%	—	K 19.3% · BB 18.7% · FIP 4.74
2027PROJ	28	MLBCOL	56	0	59	5.44	5.44	19.6%	16.8%	-0.6
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBCOL	17	0	18	5.40	5.46	19.7%	16.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBCOL	26	0	27	5.45	5.55	19.6%	16.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command45FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsGregory Infante (age 28) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Kevin Gryboski (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%19.6%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%2.7%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD4045

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	6	0	8	34	10	5	1	0%	1.3	29.4%	14.7%	14.7%	2.9%	4.50	4.09	—
2021	22	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	6	0	8	34	10	5	1	0%	1.3	29.4%	14.7%	14.7%	2.9%	4.50	4.10	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	45	0	49	207	61	18	4	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.0%	12.7%	2.6%	4.62	3.88	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	45	0	49	207	61	18	4	0%	1.1	29.5%	8.7%	20.8%	1.9%	4.62	2.77	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	13.50	7.32	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	13.50	7.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	1	26	135	26	24	2	4%	1.0	13.7%	23.5%	-9.8%	3.0%	6.92	6.56	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	1	26	135	26	24	2	4%	1.0	13.7%	23.5%	-9.8%	3.0%	6.92	6.56	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	1	26	135	26	24	2	4%	1.0	19.3%	17.8%	1.5%	1.5%	6.92	4.87	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	47	194	46	21	5	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.2%	5.2%	2.5%	3.42	4.54	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	47	194	46	21	5	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.2%	5.2%	2.5%	3.42	4.54	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	47	194	46	21	5	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	2.6%	3.42	3.86	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	38	0	48	218	52	37	3	0%	1.3	19.3%	18.7%	0.7%	1.7%	3.75	4.74	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	38	0	48	218	52	37	3	0%	1.3	19.3%	18.7%	0.7%	1.7%	3.75	4.74	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	38	0	48	218	52	37	3	0%	1.3	23.9%	17.0%	6.9%	1.4%	3.75	4.06	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	COL	56	0	59	249	49	42	7	0%	1.1	19.6%	16.8%	2.7%	2.7%	5.44	5.44	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	54	0	56	237	47	39	7	0%	1.0	19.7%	16.3%	3.4%	2.9%	5.40	5.46	-0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	COL	50	0	53	223	44	36	7	0%	1.1	19.6%	16.0%	3.6%	3.1%	5.45	5.55	-0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	17	0	18	76	15	12	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	16.3%	3.4%	2.9%	5.40	5.46	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	COL	26	0	27	114	22	18	4	0%	1.0	19.6%	16.0%	3.6%	3.1%	5.45	5.55	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	45	189	37	30	6	0%	1.0	19.7%	16.1%	3.5%	3.0%	5.43	5.13	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	134	27	0%	1.1	19.7%	16.1%	3.5%	3.0%	5.43	5.13	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		160	1	179	791	151	123	19	1%	1.1	19.1%	15.5%	3.6%	2.4%	4.43	4.76	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		179	1	200	885	169	137	21	1%	1.1	19.1%	15.5%	3.6%	2.4%	4.43	4.76	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	19.6%	16.8%	2.7%	—	5.50	19.7%	3.5%	109	+0.06	—	—	—
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	81
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	79
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	78
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	78
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	78
Conor Grammes R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	18.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.303	5.60	15.3%	-11.6%	22	+1.05	4.11	171	78
Vic Black R 2015 · 5.28 FIP	27	SU	5.28	17.5%	19.3%	2.2%	.358	6.03	9.0%	-11.6%	29	+0.75	3.16	107	78
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	77
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	77
Stevie Branche R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	27	SU	5.67	19.3%	17.6%	3.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	162	77
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	76
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	76
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	76
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	76
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	76
Jordan Gore R 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.2%	18.5%	2.2%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	113	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	19.6%	16.4%	1.11	5.43
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*