Arxy Hernandez — OGILVIE

Arxy Hernandez3B Winston-Salem Dash

Age 23 R/R 6'2" / 170 lbs A+ HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION320 act + 213 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†34

AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .232 / .262

PA213

HR3

K%34

BB%5

BABIP265

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE20

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL White Sox	—	84	73	9	1	1	0	7	38	3	4	2	123	229	164	393	41	250	45	8	182	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL White Sox	—	84	70	14	1	1	1	10	25	3	4	2	200	325	286	611	86	289	30	12	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL White Sox	—	183	166	34	5	1	1	11	50	5	4	2	205	275	265	540	60	284	27	6	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL White Sox	—	183	159	44	7	1	1	18	34	5	4	2	277	368	352	720	75	344	19	10	331	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	132	120	22	3	0	0	10	47	2	6	6	183	258	208	466	25	301	36	8	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	132	115	28	4	0	0	15	32	2	6	6	243	341	278	619	35	337	24	11	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	457	414	79	13	4	5	26	167	10	4	0	191	256	278	533	87	297	37	6	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	457	403	96	19	7	4	37	115	10	4	0	238	318	350	668	112	316	25	8	300	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	460	426	74	7	3	6	24	170	9	8	2	174	233	246	480	73	271	37	5	213	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	460	413	87	10	4	6	37	117	9	8	2	211	290	298	588	87	278	25	8	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	CWS	—	320	298	57	8	0	7	14	107	4	0	0	191	237	289	526	97	267	33	4	230	34	-24	+0	+0	+1	+9	-1.4
YTD	23	A+	CWS	—	320	290	70	11	0	9	22	78	4	0	0	241	304	372	676	131	296	24	7	301	89	-4	+0	+0	+1	+9	0.6
ROS	23	A+	CWS	0%	213	198	36	5	1	3	10	72	3	1	0	182	232	262	494	81	264	34	5	230	34	-16	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.9
ROS	23	MLB	CWS	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						265	0	0	220	27	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	CWS	—	321	299	57	8	0	7	14	107	4	0	0	191	237	288	524	97	266	33	4	230	34	-24	+0	+0	+1	+9	-1.4
TOT	23	A+	CWS	—	533	496	93	13	1	10	24	179	7	1	0	187	235	278	513	91	267	34	4	230	34	-40	+0	+0	+2	+15	-2.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CWS	30%	572	529	101	15	2	11	31	184	7	4	1	191	245	289	534	98	268	32	5	244	45	-36	+0	+0	+2	+16	-1.7
2028	25	MLB	CWS	44%	587	540	106	16	2	12	34	183	8	4	1	196	254	300	554	104	270	31	6	252	51	-32	+0	+0	+2	+17	-1.3
2029	26	MLB	CWS	51%	592	543	109	17	2	13	36	182	8	5	1	201	261	311	572	110	271	31	6	257	55	-30	+1	+0	+2	+17	-1.1
2030	27	MLB	CWS	52%	591	541	109	17	2	13	37	181	8	5	1	201	263	312	575	111	271	31	6	259	56	-29	+1	+0	+2	+17	-1.0
2031	28	MLB	CWS	53%	586	536	108	17	2	13	37	180	8	5	1	201	263	313	577	112	271	31	6	258	55	-30	+1	-1	+2	+17	-1.1
2027	24	MLB	CWS	30%	173	160	31	5	1	3	9	56	2	1	0	194	246	294	539	100	268	32	5	235	38	-12	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.6
2028	25	MLB	CWS	44%	260	240	48	7	1	6	15	81	3	2	0	200	256	312	568	112	270	31	6	244	45	-16	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.8
2029	26	MLB	CWS	51%	300	275	56	9	1	7	18	92	4	2	1	204	263	320	583	116	272	31	6	249	48	-17	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.8
2030	27	MLB	CWS	52%	310	284	57	9	1	7	19	95	4	3	1	201	261	313	574	113	272	31	6	250	50	-18	+0	+0	+1	+9	-0.8
2031	28	MLB	CWS	53%	312	285	57	9	1	7	20	96	4	3	1	200	262	312	574	112	271	31	6	249	49	-18	+0	-0	+1	+9	-0.8
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1356	1245	249	39	5	30	81	420	17	11	3	200	258	312	570	112	273	31	6	247	47	-81	+1	-0	+5	+38	-3.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	119	19	2	14	39	201	8	5	1	199	258	308	566	109	272	31	6	247	47	-39	+1	-0	+2	+18	-1.8
Career	—			—	4457	4086	787	116	20	77	263	1454	71	50	17	193	254	287	541	95	275	33	6	243	44	-281	+3	-1	+16	+126	-13.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	115	17	3	11	38	212	10	7	2	193	253	287	540	94	276	33	6	243	44	-41	+1	-0	+2	+18	-2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL White Sox	—	84	70	14	1	1	1	10	25	3	4	2	200	325	286	611	86	289	30	12	287	78	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2022	19	ROK	DSL White Sox	—	183	159	44	7	1	1	18	34	5	4	2	277	368	352	720	75	344	19	10	331	112	+2	+0	—	—	+5	0.8
2023	20	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	132	115	28	4	0	0	15	32	2	6	6	243	341	278	619	35	337	24	11	294	83	-3	-1	—	—	+4	0.0
2024	21	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	457	403	96	19	7	4	37	115	10	4	0	238	318	350	668	112	316	25	8	300	87	-6	+1	—	—	+13	0.7
2025	22	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	309	288	59	7	3	4	14	84	6	3	0	205	256	292	548	87	274	27	5	249	49	-18	+1	—	—	+9	-0.9
2025	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	151	125	28	3	1	2	23	33	3	5	2	224	358	312	670	88	289	22	15	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jose Castillolast yr '08 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,059 PA	5	2,059	39	13	254	296	379	+7	-14	1.9	1.9
	/162	664	13	4	254	296	379	+2.4	-4.5	0.6	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,357	29	11	199	255	308	+5	+1	-2.8	-1.4
	/162	664	14	5	199	255	308	+2.4	+0.5	-1.4	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Arxy Hernandez (OGILVIE)	23	30	30	45	20	187/235/278	91	267	10	1	34%	4%	34	-2.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Torres 2016 · A	23	37	38→30	46→50	37	183/224/260	77	252	6	7	30%	5%	27	-3.3	211/252/282	71	285	4	6	26%	5%	43	-2.2	222/252/273	52	290	2	3	23%	3%	37	-1.0
✕Bryan Johns 2012 · A	23	40	36→30	47→45	36	191/239/257	67	290	4	7	34%	5%	32	-3.0	198/272/262	64	282	3	6	28%	8%	49	-1.8	186/268/238	52	263	2	5	28%	8%	39	-0.9
✕Alejandro Torres 2012 · A	23	37	37→40	46→40	35	182/219/253	71	267	4	5	33%	4%	22	-3.7	205/260/281	76	311	5	6	33%	6%	48	-1.9	198/265/228	30	313	0	0	34%	8%	37	-0.5
✕Daniel Berg 2008 · A	23	37	39→40	45→40	39	180/245/262	82	274	6	4	35%	6%	37	-2.6	203/273/289	86	313	6	4	34%	7%	56	-1.3	201/278/285	84	310	6	2	34%	7%	54	-0.7
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	187/240/263	77	259	4	8	29%	5%	35	-2.8	204/263/296	92	292	8	10	31%	7%	53	-1.5	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Jon Murphy 2013 · A	23	38	38→30	47→50	39	185/237/262	77	264	5	13	31%	6%	33	-2.9	197/249/259	62	309	3	10	35%	6%	37	-2.6	191/245/241	50	305	2	10	36%	6%	27	-1.8
✕Alex Lavisky 2014 · AA	23	38	42→40	46→30	37	191/238/289	98	271	10	3	33%	5%	41	-2.3	205/252/301	96	261	10	4	25%	5%	50	-1.8	194/238/278	84	237	10	1	23%	5%	34	-1.0
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→45	45→40	34	173/222/254	81	276	7	4	39%	5%	24	-3.5	183/241/264	81	308	8	5	40%	6%	36	-2.7	115/169/126	12	224	0	0	46%	5%	-33	-1.4
✕Grayson Greiner 2016 · A	23	37	38→45	46→30	35	180/230/254	74	285	6	3	38%	6%	28	-3.2	209/261/311	102	295	9	3	31%	6%	56	-1.3	214/272/324	110	288	10	0	28%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Dyron Campos 2023 · A	22	36	42→30	47→50	37	184/235/285	101	268	10	7	34%	6%	39	-2.5	176/233/263	87	293	8	9	40%	5%	33	-2.9	109/170/174	66	190	7	13	45%	4%	-19	-2.1
✕Riccio Torrez 2013 · A	23	36→33	40	47→45	40	182/238/273	91	226	8	7	24%	4%	37	-2.6	196/252/283	87	254	7	6	25%	4%	46	-2.0	190/245/269	79	248	6	3	25%	3%	37	-1.0
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A	23	39	40→45	50→45	37	189/243/279	90	293	7	9	36%	6%	40	-2.4	181/265/289	108	254	11	5	31%	9%	54	-1.4	161/255/263	101	223	11	3	31%	10%	40	-1.3
✕Franklin Hernandez 2010 · A	23	40→36	40→45	48→40	34	194/231/288	94	283	6	4	33%	4%	37	-2.7	196/237/286	90	284	7	6	32%	4%	39	-2.5	143/175/201	58	202	5	3	31%	3%	-14	-1.2
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	37→33	41→40	49→55	33	185/229/278	92	285	8	9	37%	4%	33	-2.9	172/223/263	91	273	9	12	38%	5%	28	-3.2	143/198/223	80	227	9	13	40%	5%	4	-2.5
✕Justin Twine 2018 · A	22	35→31	36→45	46→50	30	172/213/238	66	275	4	7	38%	3%	16	-4.1	211/251/299	88	302	6	10	31%	4%	48	-1.9	216/252/313	97	321	8	14	34%	3%	50	-1.0
✕Bubba Hollins 2019 · A	23	38	40→30	44→45	43	189/258/273	84	244	8	6	25%	6%	46	-2.0	208/266/289	81	270	5	4	23%	6%	53	-1.5	200/262/272	72	270	4	3	26%	5%	45	-1.0
✕Chris Hess 2018 · A	23	39→34	37→45	49→30	38	187/245/270	83	282	3	5	33%	6%	39	-2.5	194/251/308	114	284	11	4	34%	4%	52	-1.6	181/239/309	128	257	14	1	34%	4%	46	-1.6
✕Chuck Moorman 2017 · A	23	37	37→40	39→30	36	183/216/254	71	254	4	4	29%	4%	20	-3.8	193/237/282	89	283	7	3	33%	5%	38	-2.6	184/229/268	84	273	7	0	34%	5%	28	-1.5
✕Anthony Hermelyn 2017 · A	23	34	39→40	41→30	39	169/234/251	81	270	7	3	38%	8%	30	-3.1	195/258/279	84	284	7	4	31%	8%	46	-2.0	187/254/254	67	262	5	0	28%	8%	35	-1.4
✕Cristopher Navarro 2023 · AA	24	38	34→30	46→45	35	183/227/233	50	283	3	6	35%	5%	20	-3.8	189/242/261	72	274	4	6	31%	6%	35	-2.8	168/225/233	65	237	3	2	29%	6%	18	-0.8