Bryce Elder

P Atlanta Braves

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	27	27	151	4.65	3.48	22.6%	8.7%	3.6	K 20.4% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.64
2025	26	MIX2 levels	31	31	169	5.55	4.43	19.9%	7.6%	1.9	K 19.6% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.43
2026	27	MLBATL	26	26	149	4.11	4.56	19.1%	7.7%	1.5
2027PROJ	28	MLBATL	16	16	97	4.74	4.79	18.9%	7.7%	0.7
2028PROJ	29	MLBATL	12	12	75	4.86	4.95	18.3%	8.0%	0.4
2029PROJ	30	MLBATL	10	10	58	5.04	5.15	17.6%	8.2%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs49

K%29

FB Velo21

Form4.58 ERA (proj 4.74) · K 14.9% (proj 18.9%) · BB 7.8% (proj 7.7%) ▼ last 90d · 35 IP through Oct 27

CompsChase Anderson (age 28) · Armando Galarraga (age 28) · Todd Ritchie (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.74

FIP4.79

K%18.9%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP97

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	138	559	155	57	10	100%	5.5	22.6%	11.2%	11.4%	2.5%	2.75	3.96	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	138	559	155	57	10	100%	5.5	27.7%	10.2%	17.5%	1.8%	2.75	3.03	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	159	663	144	54	18	93%	5.7	20.0%	8.4%	11.6%	3.0%	4.02	4.11	+2.4
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	159	663	144	54	18	93%	5.7	21.7%	8.1%	13.6%	2.7%	4.02	3.78	+3.1
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	32	181	755	132	64	20	100%	5.6	17.5%	8.6%	8.9%	2.6%	3.89	4.14	+2.7
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	32	181	755	132	64	20	100%	5.6	17.5%	8.5%	9.0%	2.6%	3.89	4.14	+2.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	151	655	148	57	14	100%	5.6	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	2.3%	4.65	3.64	+3.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	151	655	148	57	14	100%	5.6	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	2.3%	4.65	3.64	+3.2
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	151	655	148	57	14	100%	5.6	22.6%	8.7%	13.9%	2.1%	4.65	3.48	+3.6
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	169	738	147	56	27	100%	5.4	19.6%	7.5%	12.1%	3.7%	5.55	4.43	+1.9
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	169	738	147	56	27	100%	5.4	19.6%	7.5%	12.1%	3.7%	5.55	4.43	+1.9
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	169	738	147	56	27	100%	5.4	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	3.7%	5.55	4.43	+1.9
2026	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	26	26	149	633	121	49	24	100%	5.7	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.8%	4.11	4.55	+1.5
2026	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	26	26	149	633	121	49	24	100%	5.7	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.8%	4.11	4.55	+1.5
2026	27	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	26	26	149	633	121	49	24	100%	5.7	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.8%	4.11	4.56	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			105	104	584	2497	473	201	79	99%	5.6	18.9%	8.0%	10.9%	3.2%	4.46	4.27	+7.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	ATL	16	16	97	410	77	32	14	100%	6.1	18.9%	7.7%	11.2%	3.5%	4.74	4.79	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	75	316	58	25	12	100%	6.2	18.3%	8.0%	10.4%	3.7%	4.86	4.95	+0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	58	243	43	20	9	100%	5.8	17.6%	8.2%	9.4%	3.9%	5.04	5.15	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	75	317	58	25	12	100%	6.2	18.3%	8.0%	10.4%	3.7%	4.86	4.95	+0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	58	245	43	20	9	100%	5.8	17.6%	8.2%	9.4%	3.9%	5.04	5.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	126	716	3056	574	246	100	99%	5.6	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	3.3%	4.55	4.33	+9.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	854	160	69	28	99%	5.6	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	3.3%	4.55	4.33	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		169	167	946	4003	790	341	119	99%	5.6	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	3.0%	4.20	4.15	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	35	200	846	167	72	25	99%	5.6	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	3.0%	4.20	4.15	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 12 IPFIP 4.89 → 5.48 (+0.59)K% 27.1% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.12%	—	×0.860	23.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.17%	—	×0.900	9.15%
HR / BF /BF	5.08%	÷0.961	×1.100	5.82%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 4.89 → 5.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 101 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.31 (+0.27)K% 23.8% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.78%	—	×0.860	20.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.32%	—	×0.900	8.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷0.968	×1.100	1.59%

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 6 IPFIP 4.57 → 5.00 (+0.43)K% 17.4% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.860	14.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×0.900	3.91%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷0.984	×1.100	4.86%

Result: FIP 4.57 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 105 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.40 (+0.49)K% 22.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.25%	—	×0.880	19.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.34%	—	×1.050	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷0.981	×1.100	3.60%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMississippi Braves · 56 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.76 (+1.23)K% 27.5% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.52%	—	×0.810	22.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.80%	—	×1.100	8.58%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷0.861	×1.200	4.47%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Rome Braves · 45 IPFIP 2.58 → 3.58 (+1.00)K% 28.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.35%	—	×0.770	21.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.31%	—	×1.150	11.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷0.864	×1.250	1.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 2.58 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 37 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.30 (+0.40)K% 27.2% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.21%	—	×0.880	23.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.61%	—	×1.050	14.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷1.001	×1.100	0.75%

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Elder (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	5.04	18.0%	9.9%	132	+0.25	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	82
Armando Galarraga R 2010 · 5.06 FIP	28	SP	5.06	12.0%	8.1%	3.5%	.258	6.67	14.1%	2.6%	67	+1.61	3.92	584	74
Todd Ritchie R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.4%	6.2%	3.2%	.301	4.29	13.2%	6.9%	369	-0.07	3.03	828	74
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	73
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	72
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	72
Orlando Hernandez R 2000 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	17.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.255	4.38	18.6%	11.3%	241	-0.30	3.35	1,315	71
Randy Wells R 2011 · 5.10 FIP	28	SP	5.10	14.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.271	4.71	9.8%	-6.3%	29	-0.39	3.71	524	70
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	70
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	70
Kyle Gibson R 2016 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP	4.44	15.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.325	4.12	21.0%	12.3%	532	-0.32	3.56	1,920	70
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	1,134	70
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	70
Brian Bannister R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	14.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.287	5.42	13.3%	4.7%	128	+1.45	3.97	667	70
Jason Johnson R 2002 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.3%	7.0%	3.4%	.300	4.27	12.9%	6.3%	596	-0.11	4.12	1,351	70
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	69
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	68
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	68
Dave Bush R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	28	SP	4.73	14.3%	5.9%	3.8%	.231	4.65	15.1%	8.1%	326	-0.08	3.65	1,141	67
Kris Benson R 2003 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	14.3%	6.7%	2.9%	.313	4.46	13.4%	6.9%	558	+0.10	3.53	1,244	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	102	18.8%	8.1%	1.28	4.57
Jerry Garvin ('77-'82, 4 WAR*)	3.0	101	19.3%*	8.4%*	1.44*	4.52*
Hank Fischer ('62-'67, -1 WAR*)	2.7	91	19.8%*	8.2%*	1.33*	5.07*
Randy O'Neal ('84-'90, 1 WAR*)	2.2	73	17.4%*	7.8%*	1.21*	4.65*
Luke Hochevar ('16)	4.6	116	17.7%	7.5%	1.12	4.98
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Travis Wood ('17)	5.0	124	18.9%	8.7%	1.09	4.26