Bryce Elder — OGILVIE

Bryce Elder P Atlanta Braves

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.2 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 157 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.33

FIP4.31

K%19.0%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP157

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

SL+2.8 (22%)

CT+2.2 (15%)

FB+1.3 (51%)

CH+0.8 (12%)

SI (28%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.401 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-4	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$-2M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	138	559	155	57	10	100%	5.5	22.6%	11.2%	11.4%	2.5%	2.75	3.96	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	138	559	155	57	10	100%	5.5	27.7%	10.2%	17.5%	1.8%	2.75	3.03	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	159	663	144	54	18	93%	5.7	20.0%	8.4%	11.6%	3.0%	4.02	4.11	+1.5
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	159	663	144	54	18	93%	5.7	21.7%	8.1%	13.6%	2.7%	4.02	3.78	+2.1
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	32	181	755	132	64	20	100%	5.6	17.5%	8.6%	8.9%	2.6%	3.89	4.14	+1.6
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	32	181	755	132	64	20	100%	5.6	17.5%	8.6%	8.9%	2.6%	3.89	4.14	+1.6
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	32	181	755	132	64	20	100%	5.6	17.5%	8.5%	9.0%	2.6%	3.89	4.14	+1.6
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	151	655	148	57	14	100%	5.6	19.9%	8.1%	11.9%	2.3%	4.65	3.68	+2.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	151	655	148	57	14	100%	5.6	19.9%	8.1%	11.9%	2.3%	4.65	3.68	+2.2
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	151	655	148	57	14	100%	5.6	22.6%	8.7%	13.9%	2.1%	4.65	3.48	+2.6
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	169	738	147	56	27	100%	5.4	19.6%	7.5%	12.0%	3.7%	5.55	4.44	+0.9
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	169	738	147	56	27	100%	5.4	19.6%	7.5%	12.0%	3.7%	5.55	4.44	+0.9
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	169	738	147	56	27	100%	5.4	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	3.7%	5.55	4.43	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			105	104	584	2497	473	201	79	99%	5.6	18.9%	8.0%	10.9%	3.2%	4.46	4.27	+4.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	26	26	149	633	121	49	24	100%	5.7	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.8%	4.11	4.55	+0.6
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	26	26	149	633	121	49	24	100%	5.7	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.8%	4.11	4.55	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	ATL	26	26	149	633	121	49	24	100%	5.7	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.8%	4.11	4.55	+0.6
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	ATL	26	26	149	633	121	49	24	100%	5.7	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.8%	4.11	4.55	+0.6
ROS	27	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.0%	7.8%	11.3%	3.3%	4.33	4.31	—
ROS	27	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.0%	7.8%	11.3%	3.3%	4.33	4.31	—
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	149	633	121	49	24	—	—	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.8%	4.11	4.55	+0.6
FULL	27	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	149	629	121	49	24	—	—	19.2%	7.8%	11.4%	3.8%	4.11	4.56	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	ATL	24	24	146	617	116	49	22	100%	6.1	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	3.6%	4.86	4.88	+0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	140	589	108	48	22	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.1%	10.1%	3.8%	4.97	5.04	-0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	131	554	97	47	22	100%	6.0	17.6%	8.4%	9.2%	4.0%	5.14	5.25	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	ATL	24	24	146	616	116	49	22	100%	6.1	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	3.6%	4.86	4.88	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	ATL	23	23	140	591	108	48	22	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.1%	10.1%	3.8%	4.97	5.04	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	ATL	22	22	131	553	97	47	22	100%	6.0	17.6%	8.4%	9.2%	4.0%	5.14	5.25	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		174	174	1001	4258	795	344	146	100%	5.8	18.7%	8.1%	10.6%	3.4%	4.68	4.43	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	851	159	69	29	99%	5.7	18.7%	8.1%	10.6%	3.4%	4.68	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		169	167	946	4003	786	341	119	99%	5.6	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	3.0%	4.20	4.15	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	35	200	846	166	72	25	99%	5.6	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	3.0%	4.20	4.15	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Elder (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	18.7%	7.8%	3.2%	—	5.05	18.3%	10.1%	417	+0.41	—	—	—
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	938	75
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.44	13.5%	5.0%	286	+2.14	3.27	965	74
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	650	72
Sonny Gray R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	27	SP	3.68	22.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.267	3.28	26.4%	16.5%	362	-0.40	2.55	1,792	72
Kevin Gausman R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	27	SP	4.13	19.1%	6.3%	3.4%	.295	3.14	28.6%	22.3%	354	-0.99	2.34	1,930	71
Jake Odorizzi R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	27	SP	5.39	21.0%	9.9%	5.1%	.225	3.63	24.7%	16.1%	337	-1.76	3.16	1,048	69
Jon Gray R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	23.5%	8.2%	2.6%	.308	3.75	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.15	2.93	1,345	69
Jerad Eickhoff R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	20.5%	8.5%	2.6%	.321	5.64	18.5%	9.8%	94	+1.77	3.87	875	68
Kyle Hendricks R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	27	SP	3.85	21.6%	6.8%	3.1%	.279	3.49	20.2%	16.0%	457	-0.36	3.02	1,685	66
Trevor Williams R 2019 · 4.94 FIP	27	SP	4.94	17.8%	6.4%	4.6%	.297	4.16	21.4%	14.5%	255	-0.78	2.69	1,292	65
Julio Teheran R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP	4.60	22.4%	11.2%	3.6%	.211	4.75	20.3%	9.7%	206	+0.15	3.61	1,134	65
Aaron Sanchez R 2019 · 4.74 FIP	27	SP	4.74	19.0%	10.9%	3.4%	.309	4.68	14.9%	7.1%	175	-0.06	3.43	924	65
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	981	64
Nick Martinez R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	1,134	64
Marcus Stroman R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	27	SP	3.77	17.1%	8.0%	2.0%	.324	3.43	21.0%	14.4%	363	-0.34	3.28	1,367	63
Chris Archer R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP	3.78	27.4%	7.9%	3.6%	.294	3.82	27.5%	19.6%	469	+0.04	2.85	1,018	63
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	62
Wily Peralta R 2016 · 4.41 FIP	27	SP	4.41	17.1%	7.9%	3.2%	.346	4.70	18.8%	6.6%	183	+0.29	3.98	748	61
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	61
Chad Bettis R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	17.0%	6.6%	2.4%	.303	4.46	14.9%	7.6%	263	+0.64	3.67	603	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	138	18.4%	8.1%	1.41	4.91
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75