Bryce Elder
P
Atlanta Braves
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 92
ERA4.26
FIP4.25
K%19.5%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 171 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2292.5
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p3419.8%
xwOBA vs
p590.303
SL+2.8 (27%)
CT+2.2 (14%)
FB+1.3 (50%)
CH+0.8 (9%)
SI (26%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 138 | 559 | 155 | 57 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.6% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 2.75 | 4.20 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 138 | 559 | 155 | 57 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 27.7% | 10.2% | 17.5% | 1.8% | 2.75 | 3.03 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 159 | 663 | 144 | 54 | 18 | 93% | 5.7 | 20.0% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 4.13 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 159 | 663 | 144 | 54 | 18 | 93% | 5.7 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 3.78 | +3.0 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 32 | 181 | 755 | 132 | 64 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 4.14 | +2.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 32 | 181 | 755 | 132 | 64 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 4.14 | +2.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 151 | 655 | 148 | 57 | 14 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 4.65 | 3.75 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 151 | 655 | 148 | 57 | 14 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 2.1% | 4.65 | 3.48 | +3.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 169 | 738 | 147 | 56 | 27 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.7% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 5.55 | 4.46 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 169 | 738 | 147 | 56 | 27 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 5.55 | 4.43 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 18 | 18 | 103 | 435 | 86 | 32 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.12 | 4.26 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 289 | 56 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.26 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 56 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.26 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 171 | 724 | 142 | 54 | 25 | — | — | 19.7% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.17 | 4.25 | +2.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 171 | 722 | 142 | 54 | 25 | — | — | 19.7% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.17 | 4.25 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 24 | 24 | 146 | 617 | 119 | 48 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.3% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 140 | 589 | 110 | 47 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.88 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 24 | 24 | 146 | 616 | 119 | 48 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.3% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 111 | 47 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.88 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 157 | 156 | 892 | 3795 | 724 | 302 | 122 | 99% | 5.7 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.26 | +11.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 851 | 162 | 68 | 27 | 99% | 5.7 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 161 | 159 | 900 | 3805 | 757 | 331 | 113 | 99% | 5.6 | 19.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +13.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 846 | 168 | 73 | 25 | 99% | 5.6 | 19.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryce Elder (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.80 | 19.0% | 11.1% | 286 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.86 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.60 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.74 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 58 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 58 |
| Chris Heston R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.82 | 18.9% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.05 | 13.4% | 3.8% | 143 | +1.23 | 3.82 | 321 | 57 |
| Jeremy Hellickson R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.11 | 19.0% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .285 | 4.39 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 444 | +0.28 | 3.80 | 646 | 57 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.19 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .290 | 4.90 | 16.2% | 5.9% | 316 | +0.71 | 3.95 | 489 | 57 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.77 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +0.84 | 3.77 | 786 | 57 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.49 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .282 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.93 | 3.49 | 355 | 56 |
| Kyle Gibson R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.71 | 17.7% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .280 | 4.25 | 19.0% | 10.3% | 519 | +0.54 | 3.60 | 1,689 | 56 |
| Tom Koehler R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.42 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .279 | 4.51 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 287 | +0.09 | 4.39 | 474 | 56 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 56 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.43 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.9% | .287 | 3.97 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 277 | -1.46 | 3.23 | 622 | 56 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.72 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.26 | 27.2% | 18.6% | 238 | -1.46 | 1.32 | 650 | 56 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 55 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | .280 | 3.83 | 21.8% | 15.9% | 269 | -0.68 | 3.24 | 592 | 54 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 54 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 54 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.91 | 15.3% | 8.6% | 1.8% | .302 | 4.80 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 393 | +0.89 | 3.91 | 577 | 54 |
| Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.79 | 15.2% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 517 | +0.08 | 3.79 | 887 | 54 |
| Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.61 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 278 | 54 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.60 | 12.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .302 | 4.01 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 233 | -0.59 | 3.86 | 368 | 54 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 144 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 1.32 | 4.72 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Jason Hammel ('18) | 4 | 161 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 1.28 | 4.65 |