Bryce Elder — OGILVIE

Bryce Elder P Atlanta Braves

+0.8 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.2 · 2027

ERA4.67

FIP4.59

xFIP3.64

SIERA3.62

K%19.9%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%11.8%

IP148

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2027

K†4550

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.263

SL+2.8 (31%)

CT+2.2 (11%)

FB+1.3 (48%)

CH+0.8 (10%)

SI (23%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	25	25	138	559	155	57	10	22.6%	11.2%	2.6%	2.75	4.06	+1.9
2022	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	28	26	159	663	144	54	18	20.0%	8.4%	2.9%	4.02	4.06	+2.2
2023	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	32	32	181	755	132	64	20	17.5%	8.6%	2.5%	3.89	4.08	+2.5
2024	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	27	27	151	655	148	57	14	20.7%	9.0%	2.4%	4.65	3.78	+2.6
2025	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	31	31	169	738	147	56	27	19.7%	7.6%	3.7%	5.55	4.44	+1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	4	4	23	91	23	7	1	25.3%	7.7%	1.1%	0.77	2.54	+0.6
ROS	27	MLB	ATL	19	19	104	441	91	35	13	20.7%	8.0%	2.9%	3.95	3.94	+1.6
2026 Total	27	MLB	ATL	—	—	128	532	114	42	14	21.5%	7.9%	2.6%	3.37	3.69	+2.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	ATL	20	20	110	465	95	38	14	20.5%	8.1%	2.9%	4.36	4.37	+1.2
2028	29	MLB	ATL	17	17	93	391	78	32	12	20.0%	8.1%	3.0%	4.41	4.45	+0.8
2029	30	MLB	ATL	14	14	77	326	70	24	10	21.5%	7.4%	3.0%	4.33	4.27	+0.7
2030	31	MLB	ATL	12	12	64	271	56	20	8	20.9%	7.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.37	+0.4
2031	32	MLB	ATL	53	—	53	223	45	17	7	20.2%	7.7%	3.2%	4.44	4.49	+0.3
2032	33	MLB	ATL	43	—	43	183	36	14	6	19.6%	7.9%	3.3%	4.55	4.62	+0.2
2033	34	MLB	ATL	36	—	36	150	28	12	5	18.9%	8.1%	3.4%	4.67	4.76	+0.1
2034	35	MLB	ATL	29	—	29	122	22	10	4	18.1%	8.3%	3.5%	4.81	4.91	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			147	145	820	3461	694	306	96	20.1%	8.8%	2.8%	4.11	4.05	+11.6
/ 200 IP	—			36	35	200	844	169	75	23	20.1%	8.8%	2.8%	4.11	4.05	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Elder (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	18.4%	8.1%	3.2%	—	4.37	20.6%	12.7%	280	-0.34	—	—	—
Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP-	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	195	57
Sean O'Sullivan R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	27	SP-	4.63	12.7%	6.2%	3.3%	.285	4.09	15.3%	7.8%	162	-0.54	3.62	290	57
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2027 · 4.34 FIP	28	SP-	4.34	12.6%	5.3%	3.0%	.289	3.82	15.5%	7.0%	329	-0.52	3.14	593	57
Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP-	4.27	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	118	57
David Reyes R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP-	4.30	10.9%	6.1%	2.5%	.330	4.92	13.8%	6.5%	84	+0.62	3.37	465	56
Keith Couch R 2025 · 4.08 FIP	26	SP-	4.08	11.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	252	56
Tyler Wilson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	27	SP-	4.49	12.1%	7.0%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	377	56
Colin Bates R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	56
Nick Petree R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	11.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	122	56
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	28	SP-	4.06	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.65	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.59	4.06	203	56
Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	5.02	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.60	4.42	200	56
Brannon Easterling R 2025 · 4.37 FIP	26	SP-	4.37	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	56
David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	27	SP-	4.26	16.2%	6.8%	3.1%	.343	4.14	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.12	3.32	493	56
Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	27	SP-	4.81	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.20	3.03	401	56
Caleb Clay R 2026 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP-	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	56
Scott McGregor R 2027 · 4.41 FIP	28	SP-	4.41	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	107	56
Mike McCarthy R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.08	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.30	4.78	153	56
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2025 · 4.11 FIP	26	SP-	4.11	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	107	55
Mike Augliera R 2024 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP-	4.27	12.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	114	55
Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	27	SP-	3.89	17.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.286	4.13	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.24	3.89	248	55

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.401 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+1.2	$10M	+$7M
2028	Arb-3	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.5M
2029	Arb-4	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$20M	+$10M