Junior Cerda

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 27 RHP 5'11" / 170 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	ROKACL D-backs R…	13	1	40	2.92	4.03	24.8%	10.9%	—	K 16.9% · BB 13.6% · FIP 5.48
2023	23	MIX2 levels	20	3	45	6.25	3.01	25.0%	12.0%	—	K 17.8% · BB 14.8% · FIP 4.13
2024	24	MIX2 levels	20	0	25	5.04	3.66	30.7%	17.3%	—	K 22.3% · BB 22.2% · FIP 5.40
2027PROJ	27	MLBARI	13	0	14	4.80	4.80	23.2%	12.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBARI	7	0	7	4.80	4.84	23.1%	12.7%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Joe Colón J (age 27) · Jacob Bosiokovic (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%23.2%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 2	18	0	27	110	34	10	0	0%	1.5	21.0%	11.4%	9.7%	0.0%	1.67	2.76	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 2	18	0	27	110	34	10	0	0%	1.5	30.9%	9.1%	21.8%	0.0%	1.67	1.69	—
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	13	1	40	165	41	18	5	8%	3.1	16.9%	13.6%	3.3%	3.8%	2.92	5.48	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	13	1	40	165	41	18	5	8%	3.1	24.8%	10.9%	13.9%	3.0%	2.92	4.03	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	3	45	216	54	26	2	15%	2.2	17.8%	14.8%	3.0%	1.2%	6.25	4.13	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	3	45	216	54	26	2	15%	2.2	25.0%	12.0%	13.0%	0.9%	6.25	3.01	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	25	127	39	22	2	0%	1.2	22.3%	22.2%	0.1%	2.5%	5.04	5.40	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	25	127	39	22	2	0%	1.2	22.3%	22.2%	0.1%	2.5%	5.04	5.40	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	25	127	39	22	2	0%	1.2	30.7%	17.3%	13.4%	1.6%	5.04	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	ARI	13	0	14	59	14	8	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.9%	10.3%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	19	0	20	84	19	11	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.84	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	4	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.46	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	109	27	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		71	4	137	618	118	95	12	6%	1.9	19.1%	15.4%	3.7%	1.9%	4.15	4.51	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	6	200	904	172	139	18	6%	1.9	19.1%	15.4%	3.7%	1.9%	4.15	4.51	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Cerda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	23.2%	12.9%	3.0%	—	4.84	23.1%	10.4%	20	+0.04	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	81
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	81
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	80
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	80
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	79
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	79
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	79
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	79
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	78
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	78
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	78
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	78
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	78
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	77
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	77
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	77
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	77