Jacob Denner

P Everett AquaSox

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	MIX2 levels	25	0	47	3.66	2.74	23.6%	6.2%	—	K 16.7% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.66
2026	25	A+SEA	3	3	12	3.86	3.44	32.7%	7.7%	—	K 25.2% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.73
2027PROJ	26	MLBSEA	13	0	14	4.39	4.39	21.7%	8.3%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBSEA	14	0	15	4.40	4.42	21.8%	8.5%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsPedro Feliciano (age 26) · Luis Perez (age 26) · Chris Narveson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 117

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%21.7%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%13.4%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	47	195	46	12	3	0%	1.9	16.7%	7.5%	9.2%	1.9%	3.66	3.66	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	47	195	46	12	3	0%	1.9	16.7%	7.5%	9.2%	1.9%	3.66	3.66	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	47	195	46	12	3	0%	1.9	23.6%	6.2%	17.4%	1.5%	3.66	2.74	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	3	3	12	52	17	4	2	100%	3.9	25.2%	8.8%	16.3%	4.8%	3.86	4.73	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	3	3	12	52	17	4	2	100%	3.9	25.2%	8.8%	16.3%	4.8%	3.86	4.73	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	3	3	12	52	17	4	2	100%	3.9	32.7%	7.7%	25.0%	3.8%	3.86	3.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SEA	13	0	14	59	13	5	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	3.1%	4.39	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	39	0	41	175	38	15	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.5%	13.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.42	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	14	0	15	63	14	5	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.5%	13.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.42	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	64	14	5	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.5%	13.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.04	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	66	26	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.5%	13.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.04	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		28	3	58	247	46	19	6	11%	2.1	18.5%	7.8%	10.7%	2.5%	3.70	3.89	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	10	200	847	157	66	21	11%	2.1	18.5%	7.8%	10.7%	2.5%	3.70	3.89	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Denner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	21.7%	8.3%	3.1%	—	4.42	21.8%	13.4%	41	+0.03	—	—	—
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	82
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	79
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	77
Tyler Holton L 2022 · 4.30 FIP	26	SU	4.30	20.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.288	3.67	21.7%	16.8%	258	-0.63	2.97	439	77
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	77
Wesley Wright L 2010 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	.310	3.38	23.9%	16.5%	106	-1.47	3.03	375	76
Michael Johnson L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.7%	9.5%	3.1%	.272	5.19	13.4%	3.4%	67	+0.99	3.92	256	76
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	76
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	76
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	76
Colton Turner L 2017 · 3.55 FIP	26	SU	3.55	19.6%	5.4%	2.6%	.311	3.84	21.9%	13.0%	158	+0.29	2.79	325	75
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	74
Damaso Marte L 2001 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	25.3%	5.8%	3.2%	.287	3.09	26.5%	17.9%	214	-0.39	2.41	495	74
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	74
James Reeves L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	22.4%	10.3%	2.2%	.226	5.11	27.0%	10.8%	51	+1.37	2.02	280	74
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	74
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	74
Kevin Chapman L 2014 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	19.6%	11.3%	3.2%	.297	3.30	22.3%	12.4%	137	-1.33	3.01	194	74
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	74
Kit Scheetz L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	22.9%	8.7%	3.9%	.340	5.08	16.2%	2.6%	55	+0.66	2.34	195	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	21.8%	8.4%	1.20	4.40
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*