Chih-Jung Liu

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	23	MIX2 levels	26	22	104	6.06	5.94	23.4%	10.6%	—	K 18.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 7.22
2023	24	AABOS	26	24	114	5.35	4.32	28.4%	12.0%	—	K 23.0% · BB 13.2% · FIP 5.16
2024	25	MIX2 levels	7	4	21	3.43	3.62	39.5%	10.5%	—	K 31.7% · BB 13.4% · FIP 5.61
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	2	2	11	4.33	4.33	24.9%	10.1%	0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBBOS	1	1	6	4.40	4.46	24.5%	10.2%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Ariel Peña (age 28) · Ramon Ramirez (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

K%24.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%14.9%

Proj IP11

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	55	231	60	19	6	100%	4.3	18.8%	10.5%	8.2%	2.8%	4.23	4.41	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	55	231	60	19	6	100%	4.3	26.0%	8.2%	17.7%	2.6%	4.23	3.37	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	104	462	108	49	28	85%	4.0	18.3%	11.8%	6.4%	7.6%	6.06	7.22	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	104	462	108	49	28	85%	4.0	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	6.1%	6.06	5.94	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	26	24	114	510	145	61	19	92%	4.4	23.0%	13.2%	9.9%	4.3%	5.35	5.16	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	26	24	114	510	145	61	19	92%	4.4	28.4%	12.0%	16.5%	3.7%	5.35	4.32	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	21	86	34	9	4	57%	3.0	31.7%	13.4%	18.4%	6.4%	3.43	5.61	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	21	86	34	9	4	57%	3.0	31.7%	13.4%	18.4%	6.4%	3.43	5.61	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	4	21	86	34	9	4	57%	3.0	39.5%	10.5%	29.1%	4.7%	3.43	3.62	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BOS	2	2	11	46	12	5	1	100%	5.5	24.9%	10.1%	14.9%	3.1%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	3	3	20	84	21	9	3	100%	6.7	24.5%	10.2%	14.3%	3.2%	4.40	4.46	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	1	1	6	25	6	3	1	100%	6.0	24.5%	10.2%	14.3%	3.2%	4.40	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	6	26	6	3	1	100%	6.3	24.5%	10.2%	14.3%	3.2%	4.40	4.08	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	192	96	32	100%	6.0	24.5%	10.2%	14.3%	3.2%	4.40	4.08	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		72	63	295	1289	272	158	69	88%	4.1	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	5.3%	5.25	5.79	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	875	185	107	47	88%	4.1	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	5.3%	5.25	5.79	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chih-Jung Liu (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	24.9%	10.1%	3.1%	—	4.46	24.5%	14.3%	20	+0.13	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	74
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	72
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	70
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	69
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	67
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	67
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	65
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	65
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	64
Jake Walkinshaw R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	28	SP	4.03	16.1%	8.5%	2.2%	.244	3.83	15.7%	5.7%	92	-0.20	2.84	310	63
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	63
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	62
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	62
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	62
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	62
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	62
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	60
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	59
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	59
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	59