Nathaniel Ochoa Leyva

Nathaniel Ochoa LeyvaSS Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 23 R/R 6'4" / 215 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 121 proj PA

wRC+†38

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .237 / .247

PA121

HR1

K%31

BB%6

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	24	18	3	0	0	0	5	8	1	0	0	167	375	167	542		300	33	21	289	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	107	93	27	3	2	0	12	34	0	2	0	290	371	366	737	75	458	32	11	330	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	320	285	61	12	1	3	29	116	5	12	3	214	298	295	593	81	347	36	9	275	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	209	188	32	5	1	2	19	75	2	7	1	170	254	239	493	69	270	36	9	233	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	24	20	2	0	0	0	3	11	1	0	0	100	250	100	350		243	46	12	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	107	98	20	2	1	0	7	48	0	2	0	204	257	245	502	41	389	45	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	320	295	50	10	1	2	19	152	5	12	3	169	232	231	462	61	329	48	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	209	194	22	3	1	1	13	105	2	7	1	113	177	155	332	41	238	50	6	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	24	20	2	0	0	0	3	11	1	0	0	100	250	100	350		222	46	12	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	24	18	3	0	0	0	5	8	1	0	0	167	375	167	542		300	33	21	289	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	107	98	20	2	1	0	7	48	0	2	0	204	257	245	502	41	400	45	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	107	93	27	3	2	0	12	34	0	2	0	290	371	366	737	75	458	32	11	330	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	320	295	50	10	1	2	19	152	5	12	3	169	232	231	462	61	338	48	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	320	285	61	12	1	3	29	116	5	12	3	214	298	295	593	81	347	36	9	275	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	209	194	22	3	1	1	13	105	2	7	1	113	177	155	332	41	239	50	6	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	209	188	32	5	1	2	19	75	2	7	1	170	254	239	493	69	270	36	9	233	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	24	20	2	0	0	0	3	11	1	0	0	100	250	100	350		243	46	12	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	107	99	20	2	1	0	7	48	0	2	0	202	257	242	500	40	389	45	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	320	293	50	10	1	2	19	152	5	12	3	171	232	232	464	61	329	48	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	209	192	22	3	1	1	13	105	2	7	1	115	177	156	333	42	238	50	6	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	320	293	50	10	1	2	19	152	5	12	3	171	232	232	464	61	329	48	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	209	192	22	3	1	1	13	105	2	7	1	115	177	156	333	42	238	50	6	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	319	294	54	11	2	2	19	99	3	6	1	181	239	249	488	69	261	31	6	224	38	-24	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	30%	157	144	27	5	1	2	10	48	2	3	1	187	246	269	515	82	264	31	6	235	45	-10	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	30%	47	44	8	2	0	0	3	14	0	1	0	187	246	267	513	80	264	30	6	235	45	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	47	44	8	2	0	0	3	14	0	1	0	182	234	227	461	45	267	30	6	235	24	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	609	111	28	0	0	41	194	0	14	0	182	234	228	462	46	267	30	6	235	24	-42	+3	+0	+7	+14	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	938	863	142	24	5	6	59	402	11	26	6	165	227	225	452	60	297	43	6	204	24	-19	+0	+0	+3	+6	-1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	98	17	3	4	41	279	8	18	4	164	227	222	450	59	297	43	6	204	24	-45	+0	+0	+7	+14	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nathaniel Ochoa Leyva (OGILVIE)	23	20	25	50	35	179/237/247	68	261	1	2	31%	6%	38	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jon Murphy 2013 · A	23	37	38→30	47→50	39	183/234/259	76	262	5	13	31%	5%	39	-3.1	196/249/259	63	303	3	10	34%	6%	45	-2.7	190/244/242	52	297	3	10	35%	6%	35	-1.8
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→30	50→45	40	185/239/261	76	255	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	210/271/302	92	296	8	10	30%	7%	63	-1.4	202/270/282	80	285	9	12	31%	7%	57	-0.4
✕Carlos Torres 2016 · A	23	36	38→30	46→50	37	180/220/257	76	248	6	7	30%	4%	32	-3.6	208/248/279	71	283	4	6	26%	4%	48	-2.5	215/244/266	51	284	2	3	24%	3%	39	-1.2
✕Neil Walton 2007 · A	23	36→32	35→30	48→50	35	176/222/234	57	271	3	12	35%	5%	28	-3.9	197/242/272	75	290	4	11	31%	5%	44	-2.8	199/243/273	74	286	3	10	30%	5%	42	-1.7
✕Nick Lovullo 2017 · A	23	38	36→30	45→40	38	187/231/253	66	265	4	6	30%	5%	36	-3.4	200/254/264	64	266	4	5	25%	6%	47	-2.5	191/247/244	54	255	3	3	25%	6%	37	-1.6
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	190/248/269	79	262	6	11	29%	7%	47	-2.6	198/262/281	83	345	5	9	41%	6%	55	-1.9	143/230/226	84	291	4	14	47%	8%	31	-0.7
✕Fabian Pertuz 2024 · AA	23	35→36	40	51→55	36	179/227/266	87	258	7	13	33%	5%	38	-3.2	186/239/281	95	297	9	11	38%	6%	46	-2.6	156/208/244	89	265	10	7	43%	5%	24	-2.2
✕Ariel Montesino 2019 · A	23	39	37→40	47→50	41	189/237/261	72	256	4	9	27%	6%	40	-3.1	187/238/270	83	284	5	10	34%	5%	43	-2.8	131/180/196	65	213	3	13	38%	4%	5	-1.5
✕Alejandro Torres 2012 · A	23	37	37→30	46→40	35	181/218/252	71	266	5	5	33%	4%	31	-3.7	205/260/282	77	311	5	6	33%	6%	54	-2.0	203/267/233	29	322	0	0	34%	7%	45	-0.5
✕Jordan Sprinkle 2024 · A	23	40	37→30	54→65	40	193/252/263	71	286	6	16	33%	7%	47	-2.5	190/254/251	61	269	4	36	29%	7%	45	-2.7	186/252/236	50	259	3	50	27%	7%	39	-1.8
✕Jamaal Hawkins 2011 · A	22	38	36→30	49→50	40	181/243/245	65	270	3	9	32%	7%	40	-3.1	196/259/265	69	308	3	10	35%	6%	50	-2.3	187/252/247	60	303	1	12	36%	5%	40	-1.6
✕Jack Winkler 2022 · A	23	40→41	38→40	48→55	40	193/248/273	79	268	4	10	28%	6%	47	-2.5	205/268/294	89	269	7	14	25%	6%	60	-1.6	190/257/276	86	252	7	18	26%	6%	49	-1.7
✕Connor Justus 2018 · A	23	39→37	38→40	46→45	45	188/271/264	76	269	5	9	30%	8%	55	-1.9	179/259/251	72	255	5	8	29%	8%	48	-2.5	163/242/223	60	236	4	6	30%	7%	33	-2.4
✕Tyler Moore 2016 · A	23	39	34→30	50→45	40	186/236/241	55	259	2	15	28%	5%	35	-3.4	199/250/260	61	284	3	9	29%	6%	45	-2.7	191/239/233	42	272	2	5	29%	5%	32	-1.5
✕Julio Carrion 2022 · A	23	38	38→40	50→45	42	184/263/262	78	274	6	5	33%	7%	52	-2.2	181/252/269	88	337	8	5	45%	7%	49	-2.4	154/227/236	82	311	9	4	49%	7%	30	-1.5
✕Jay Baum 2016 · A	23	41→39	35→40	47→50	41	193/243/253	60	271	2	13	29%	6%	40	-3.0	197/247/283	86	265	7	10	27%	6%	49	-2.4	189/240/278	88	246	8	10	26%	5%	44	-1.7
✕Dillon Moyer 2015 · A	24	37→38	36→30	47→50	40	180/237/245	65	265	3	10	32%	6%	37	-3.3	163/213/223	60	309	3	8	45%	5%	23	-4.3	103/146/136	34	238	0	5	54%	4%	-25	-4.5
✕Chris Hess 2018 · A	23	39→34	37→45	48→30	39	186/244/267	82	276	3	5	32%	6%	45	-2.7	189/248/290	101	279	9	4	34%	5%	53	-2.1	174/235/282	108	252	11	1	34%	4%	43	-2.2
✕Bubba Hollins 2019 · A	23	38	39→30	44→45	43	187/256/267	80	242	7	6	25%	6%	50	-2.3	206/264/286	80	268	5	4	24%	6%	57	-1.8	199/260/270	71	265	4	3	25%	5%	49	-1.1
✕Leosdany Molina 2023 · A	23	38→34	37→30	53→50	39	187/239/256	69	262	5	17	30%	5%	40	-3.1	194/243/272	78	270	8	14	30%	5%	45	-2.7	175/222/230	55	236	9	18	29%	5%	26	-2.2