Juan Castillo
C Spokane Indians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A/ROKCOL | 180 | .249/.291/.337 | 1 | 2 | 12 | — | .168/.201/.232 |
| 2025 | 22 | ACOL | 250 | .234/.315/.306 | 3 | 3 | 34 | — | .190/.242/.250 |
| 2026 | 23 | A+COL | 191 | .214/.281/.280 | 2 | 0 | 20 | — | .168/.222/.208 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBCOL | 241 | .179/.232/.249 | 2 | 3 | 35 | -0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBCOL | 39 | .194/.247/.285 | 1 | 1 | 41 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 110 | 104 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 250 | 284 | 298 | 582 | 48 | 325 | 24 | 5 | 263 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 121 | 101 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 307 | 397 | 356 | 753 | 50 | 383 | 17 | 7 | 336 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 59 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 345 | 320 | 665 | 80 | 343 | 25 | 8 | 305 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 45 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 267 | 244 | 511 | 49 | 348 | 40 | 7 | 241 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 135 | 128 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 266 | 299 | 367 | 666 | 102 | 333 | 21 | 4 | 296 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 250 | 222 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 315 | 306 | 621 | 72 | 295 | 22 | 10 | 286 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 191 | 168 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 281 | 280 | 561 | 65 | 330 | 35 | 8 | 251 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 110 | 105 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 152 | 183 | 162 | 345 | 10 | 217 | 27 | 4 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 121 | 103 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 214 | 302 | 243 | 544 | 29 | 258 | 20 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 59 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 259 | 231 | 489 | 58 | 274 | 37 | 5 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 45 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 119 | 178 | 143 | 321 | 24 | 308 | 53 | 4 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 135 | 130 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 209 | 262 | 470 | 77 | 253 | 31 | 2 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 250 | 232 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 77 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 242 | 250 | 492 | 60 | 264 | 31 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 191 | 173 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 168 | 222 | 208 | 430 | 40 | 309 | 48 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 110 | 105 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 152 | 183 | 162 | 345 | 10 | 213 | 27 | 4 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 110 | 104 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 250 | 284 | 298 | 582 | 48 | 325 | 24 | 5 | 263 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 121 | 103 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 214 | 302 | 243 | 544 | 29 | 275 | 20 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 121 | 101 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 307 | 397 | 356 | 753 | 50 | 383 | 17 | 7 | 336 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 59 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 259 | 231 | 489 | 58 | 300 | 37 | 5 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Rockies | — | 59 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 345 | 320 | 665 | 80 | 343 | 25 | 8 | 305 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 180 | 172 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 66 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 174 | 207 | 238 | 445 | 64 | 274 | 37 | 3 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 180 | 169 | 42 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 47 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 249 | 291 | 337 | 628 | 89 | 336 | 26 | 4 | 282 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 250 | 232 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 77 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 242 | 250 | 492 | 60 | 268 | 31 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A RAW | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 250 | 222 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 315 | 306 | 621 | 72 | 295 | 22 | 10 | 286 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 191 | 173 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 168 | 222 | 208 | 430 | 40 | 329 | 48 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | Spokane Indians | — | 191 | 168 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 281 | 280 | 561 | 65 | 330 | 35 | 8 | 251 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 110 | 105 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 152 | 183 | 162 | 345 | 10 | 217 | 27 | 4 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 121 | 107 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 206 | 302 | 234 | 535 | 28 | 258 | 20 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 59 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 259 | 226 | 485 | 57 | 274 | 37 | 5 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 180 | 171 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 66 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 175 | 207 | 240 | 446 | 64 | 267 | 37 | 3 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 250 | 232 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 77 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 242 | 250 | 492 | 60 | 264 | 31 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 191 | 177 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 164 | 222 | 203 | 425 | 40 | 309 | 48 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 180 | 171 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 66 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 175 | 207 | 240 | 446 | 64 | 267 | 37 | 3 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 250 | 232 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 77 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 242 | 250 | 492 | 60 | 264 | 31 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 191 | 177 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 164 | 222 | 203 | 425 | 40 | 309 | 48 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | COL | 0% | 241 | 224 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 85 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 179 | 232 | 249 | 480 | 69 | 275 | 35 | 5 | 220 | 35 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | COL | 30% | 130 | 121 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 185 | 238 | 266 | 504 | 81 | 277 | 35 | 5 | 229 | 41 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | COL | 30% | 39 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 247 | 285 | 531 | 91 | 289 | 36 | 5 | 240 | 41 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 39 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 231 | 297 | 528 | 108 | 273 | 36 | 5 | 240 | 27 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 617 | 117 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 33 | 233 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 190 | 231 | 300 | 531 | 110 | 272 | 36 | 5 | 240 | 27 | -45 | +3 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1130 | 1041 | 188 | 25 | 4 | 8 | 56 | 386 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 181 | 234 | 235 | 469 | 55 | 275 | 34 | 5 | 208 | 27 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 108 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 222 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 180 | 233 | 235 | 468 | 55 | 273 | 34 | 5 | 208 | 27 | -47 | +1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Spokane Indians · 191 PAwOBA .250 → .198 (−52)K% 35.1% → 47.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.08% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 47.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.52% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 28.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 2.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 1.64% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .250 → .198; ISO .065 → .049; BABIP .330 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFresno Grizzlies · 250 PAwOBA .278 → .219 (−59)K% 21.6% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.60% | ÷0.951 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.20% | ÷1.096 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | — | 22.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.055 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | — | 3.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.910 | ×1.015 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.870 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.64% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 103, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .278 → .219; ISO .072 → .058; BABIP .295 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Rockies · 135 PAwOBA .290 → .194 (−96)K% 21.5% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.48% | ÷0.991 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.70% | ÷1.035 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 2.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.24% | ÷1.003 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.985 | 19.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.08% | ÷1.034 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.985 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.985 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.044 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.74% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .290 → .194; ISO .102 → .062; BABIP .333 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFresno Grizzlies · 45 PAwOBA .235 → .161 (−73)K% 40.0% → 53.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.00% | ÷1.011 | ×1.360 | — | — | 53.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.064 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 23.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.081 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 6.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 103, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .235 → .161; ISO .049 → .030; BABIP .348 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Rockies · 59 PAwOBA .298 → .208 (−90)K% 25.4% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.42% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.47% | ÷0.999 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 5.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.08% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷0.976 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 21.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.006 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 4.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.137 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 95, 2B 101, 3B 127, K 99, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .298 → .208; ISO .080 → .049; BABIP .343 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Rockies · 121 PAwOBA .330 → .238 (−92)K% 17.4% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.36% | ÷1.070 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.44% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 5.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.96% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 3.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.50% | ÷1.043 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 22.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.990 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 3.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.233 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 114, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .330 → .238; ISO .050 → .034; BABIP .383 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Rockies · 110 PAwOBA .256 → .167 (−90)K% 23.6% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.64% | ÷1.055 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷0.951 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.49% | ÷1.033 | ×0.680 | ×1.019 | ×1.008 | 19.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.968 | ×0.600 | ×1.019 | ×1.008 | 1.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.019 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.078 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.56% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 107, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 111, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .256 → .167; ISO .048 → .024; BABIP .325 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).