Wander Arias

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+WSH	35	2	57	3.79	3.08	24.5%	10.8%	—	K 18.9% · BB 12.4% · FIP 3.92
2025	25	A+WSH	33	4	59	6.90	5.45	17.9%	12.9%	—	K 13.8% · BB 14.8% · FIP 6.36
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	67	0	70	6.01	6.01	14.3%	16.0%	-1.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBWSH	24	0	25	5.89	5.93	15.1%	15.5%	-0.4
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBWSH	34	0	36	5.87	5.94	15.5%	15.2%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control35Command30

CompsJulian Arballo (age 27) · Jeff Soptic (age 25) · Kyle McMyne (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA6.01

FIP6.01

K%14.3%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%-1.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	7	3	20	77	22	8	0	43%	2.9	19.4%	13.0%	6.4%	0.0%	0.90	3.10	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	7	3	20	77	22	8	0	43%	2.9	28.6%	10.4%	18.2%	0.0%	0.90	2.10	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	6	56	260	55	26	9	40%	3.7	14.8%	12.1%	2.7%	4.4%	6.43	5.82	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	6	56	260	55	26	9	40%	3.7	21.2%	10.0%	11.2%	3.5%	6.43	4.62	—
2022	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	22	5	81	360	74	33	12	23%	3.7	15.2%	10.8%	4.4%	3.8%	5.20	5.27	—
2022	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	22	5	81	360	74	33	12	23%	3.7	20.6%	9.2%	11.4%	3.3%	5.20	4.42	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	45	0	65	296	76	31	8	0%	1.4	19.8%	12.0%	7.7%	3.3%	6.23	4.75	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	45	0	65	296	76	31	8	0%	1.4	25.7%	10.5%	15.2%	2.7%	6.23	3.79	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	35	2	57	241	59	26	3	6%	1.6	18.9%	12.4%	6.4%	1.5%	3.79	3.92	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	35	2	57	241	59	26	3	6%	1.6	18.9%	12.4%	6.4%	1.5%	3.79	3.92	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	35	2	57	241	59	26	3	6%	1.6	24.5%	10.8%	13.7%	1.2%	3.79	3.08	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	33	4	59	279	50	36	10	12%	1.8	13.8%	14.8%	-1.0%	4.6%	6.90	6.36	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	33	4	59	279	50	36	10	12%	1.8	13.8%	14.8%	-1.0%	4.6%	6.90	6.36	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	33	4	59	279	50	36	10	12%	1.8	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	3.6%	6.90	5.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	67	0	70	296	42	47	9	0%	1.0	14.3%	16.0%	-1.7%	3.1%	6.01	6.01	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	287	43	44	9	0%	1.0	15.1%	15.5%	-0.4%	3.2%	5.89	5.93	-1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	62	0	65	274	42	42	9	0%	1.0	15.5%	15.2%	0.3%	3.3%	5.87	5.94	-1.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	24	0	25	106	16	16	3	0%	1.0	15.1%	15.5%	-0.4%	3.2%	5.89	5.93	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	34	0	36	152	24	23	5	0%	1.1	15.5%	15.2%	0.3%	3.3%	5.87	5.94	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	256	39	39	8	0%	1.0	15.3%	15.3%	0.0%	3.3%	5.88	5.55	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	129	129	26	0%	1.0	15.3%	15.3%	0.0%	3.3%	5.88	5.55	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		157	20	338	1513	251	187	52	13%	2.2	16.6%	12.4%	4.2%	3.4%	5.41	5.14	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	12	200	895	148	111	30	13%	2.2	16.6%	12.4%	4.2%	3.4%	5.41	5.14	-3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wander Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.01	14.3%	16.0%	3.1%	—	5.93	15.3%	-0.1%	133	-0.08	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	83
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	80
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	80
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	79
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	79
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	79
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	79
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	79
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	79
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	78
Ricky Salinas R 2022 · 5.79 FIP	26	SU	5.79	14.3%	15.1%	3.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	274	78
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	78
Oscar Verdugo R 2017 · 6.31 FIP	27	SU	6.31	10.3%	13.8%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	144	78
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	78
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	77
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	77
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	77
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	76
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	75
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	15.0%	15.6%	1.25	5.93
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*