Arol Vera

SS Salt Lake Bees
Age 24 S/R 6'2" / 230 lbs AAA K +5%HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421AA/A+LAA399.181/.251/.2332311—.157/.210/.203
202522AA/A+LAA325.211/.300/.3386243—.177/.246/.283
202623AAALAA147.211/.281/.2780140—.199/.253/.257
2027PROJ10% MLB24MLBLAA11.184/.240/.2550041-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB25MLBLAA65.190/.247/.2741148-0.2
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed65
Whiff%45
Z-Con%44
K%31
Max EV30
Chase%24
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%
CompsEdgar Duran (age 24) · Logan Moore (age 24) · Warren Saunders (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†41
AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .240 / .255
PA11
HR0
K%27
BB%9
BABIP260
ISO71
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -7.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-8BATRUN: -0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.1 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +2.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.3-0.22728
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED40
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202118 AInland Empire 66ers — 9082 23000 6202 92 280344280625 371 227 294 55 — — — — — —
202118 ROKACL Angels — 164145 461630 12395 22 317389469858 152426 247 377 64 — — — — — —
202219 AInland Empire 66ers — 551487 1011644 531496 197 207293281574 74287 2710 266 27 — — — — — —
202320 AARocket City Trash Pandas — 6056 16102 1101 20 286310411721 125304 172 311 96 — — — — — —
202320 A+Tri-City Dust Devils — 491438 1011623 341284 105 231292297589 66311 267 263 46 — — — — — —
202421 AARocket City Trash Pandas — 277251 431001 19842 15 171235223458 52250 307 212 3 — — — — — —
202421 A+Tri-City Dust Devils — 122109 22301 12311 20 202287257544 55273 2510 257 28 — — — — — —
202522 AARocket City Trash Pandas — 9584 14401 3273 00 167222250472 83224 283 207 9 — — — — — —
202522 A+Tri-City Dust Devils — 230200 461025 27473 20 230330375705 145277 2012 321 57 — — — — — —
202623 AAASalt Lake Bees — 147133 28710 11392 11 211281278559 68298 277 257 40 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202118 A MLEInland Empire 66ers — 9084 21000 4282 92 250300250550 372 314 250 55 — — — — — —
202118 ROK MLEACL Angels — 164149 331020 8565 22 221284315599 94341 345 263 64 — — — — — —
202219 A MLEInland Empire 66ers — 551502 821233 382046 197 163231217448 54263 377 208 27 — — — — — —
202320 AA MLERocket City Trash Pandas — 6056 17102 1121 20 304328429756 125313 202 310 96 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLETri-City Dust Devils — 491448 961512 241644 105 214261266526 51310 335 236 46 — — — — — —
202421 AA MLERocket City Trash Pandas — 277256 37801 141052 15 145195188382 43232 385 173 3 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLETri-City Dust Devils — 122113 21301 8411 20 186246239485 53268 347 210 28 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLERocket City Trash Pandas — 9585 13401 2333 00 153200235435 82203 352 182 9 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLETri-City Dust Devils — 230208 39824 19623 20 188265303568 115245 278 252 57 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 147136 27610 8472 11 199253257511 59297 325 228 40 — — — — — —
202118 ROK MLE2 teams — 254233 541020 12847 114 232290292582 60358 335 258 61 — — — — — —
202118 ROK RAW2 teams — 254227 691630 18597 114 304373401774 97406 237 348 61 — — — — — —
202219 A MLEInland Empire 66ers — 551502 821233 382046 197 163231217448 54264 377 208 27 — — — — — —
202219 A RAWInland Empire 66ers — 551487 1011644 531496 197 207293281574 74287 2710 266 27 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLE2 teams — 551504 1121614 251765 125 222266282548 60323 325 244 51 — — — — — —
202320 A+ RAW2 teams — 551494 1171725 351385 125 237294310604 73310 256 268 51 — — — — — —
202421 AA MLE2 teams — 399369 581102 221463 35 157211203414 46251 376 184 11 — — — — — —
202421 AA RAW2 teams — 399360 651302 311153 35 181251233485 53257 298 225 11 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE2 teams — 325293 521225 21956 20 177247283530 106241 296 232 43 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAW2 teams — 325284 601426 30746 20 211300338638 127262 239 287 43 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 147136 27610 8472 11 199253257511 59303 325 228 40 — — — — — —
202623 AAA RAWSalt Lake Bees — 147133 28710 11392 11 211281278559 68298 277 257 40 — — — — — —
202118 ROK MLE2 teams — 254233 541020 12847 114 232290292582 60352 335 258 61 — — — — — —
202219 A MLEInland Empire 66ers — 551502 821233 382046 197 163231217448 54263 377 208 27 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLE2 teams — 551516 1121614 251765 125 217266275541 58310 325 244 51 — — — — — —
202421 AA MLE2 teams — 399371 581102 221463 35 156211202413 46243 376 184 11 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE2 teams — 325295 521225 21956 20 176247281528 105233 296 232 43 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 147136 27610 8472 11 199253257511 59297 325 228 40 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 AA MLE2 teams — 399371 581102 221463 35 156211202413 46243 376 184 11 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE2 teams — 325295 521225 21956 20 176247281528 105233 296 232 43 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 147136 27610 8472 11 199253257511 59297 325 228 40 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLELAA 10% 200184 34811 11593 21 186241258500 73263 306 228 41 -14 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXLAA 10% 1110 1000 130 00 184240255495 71260 279 227 41 -1 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLELAA 35% 188173 33712 11552 21 191248277525 85265 296 239 48 -12 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.6
202825 MLB CTXLAA 35% 6560 11201 4191 10 190247274521 84262 296 237 48 -4 +0 +0 +1 +1 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 6560 11201 4191 10 183246267513 83250 296 237 38 -4 +0 +0 +1 +1 -0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650600 11020010 4019010 100 183246267513 83250 296 237 38 -40 +2 +0 +7 +14 -1.8
Career— MLE — 25222309 436781017 14383932 5124 189246253499 65284 336 225 38 -19 -0 +0 +3 +6 -1.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650595 1122034 372168 136 188245252497 64283 336 225 38 -42 -0 +0 +7 +14 -2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 147 PAwOBA .251 → .228 (−24)K% 26.5% → 31.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.53%÷1.000×1.200——31.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.48%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0485.41%
HBP% /PA1.36%—×0.940—×1.0481.34%
Singles /BIP21.28%÷1.000×0.930×1.050×1.04821.77%
Doubles /BIP7.45%÷1.000×0.830×1.050×1.0486.80%
Triples /BIP1.06%÷1.000×0.970×1.050×1.0481.14%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0480.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .251 → .228; ISO .068 → .062; BABIP .298 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 230 PAwOBA .311 → .252 (−59)K% 20.4% → 27.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.43%÷1.019×1.350——27.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.30%÷0.975×0.710—×0.9988.22%
HBP% /PA1.30%—×0.810—×0.9981.05%
Singles /BIP18.95%÷1.019×0.910×1.009×0.99817.05%
Doubles /BIP6.54%÷0.975×0.830×1.009×0.9985.60%
Triples /BIP1.31%÷0.900×0.820×1.009×0.9981.20%
Home runs /BIP3.27%÷1.000×0.830—×0.9982.71%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .311 → .252; ISO .145 → .118; BABIP .277 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 95 PAwOBA .206 → .182 (−24)K% 28.4% → 34.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.42%÷1.011×1.220——34.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.16%÷1.020×0.680—×1.0272.16%
HBP% /PA3.16%—×0.840—×1.0272.72%
Singles /BIP15.79%÷1.048×0.920×0.974×1.02713.86%
Doubles /BIP7.02%÷0.929×0.910×0.974×1.0276.88%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.028×0.880×0.974×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP1.75%÷1.028×0.800—×1.0271.40%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 110, 2B 86, 3B 106, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .206 → .182; ISO .083 → .076; BABIP .224 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 277 PAwOBA .208 → .173 (−35)K% 30.3% → 38.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.32%÷0.974×1.220——37.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.86%÷0.966×0.680—×1.0425.03%
HBP% /PA0.72%—×0.840—×1.0420.63%
Singles /BIP19.16%÷1.016×0.920×1.000×1.04218.09%
Doubles /BIP5.99%÷1.072×0.910×1.000×1.0425.30%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.045×0.880×1.000×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP0.60%÷0.976×0.800—×1.0420.51%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 109, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .208 → .173; ISO .052 → .042; BABIP .250 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 122 PAwOBA .247 → .210 (−37)K% 25.4% → 33.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.41%÷1.018×1.350——33.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.02%÷1.018×0.710—×1.0126.36%
HBP% /PA0.82%—×0.810—×1.0120.67%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷0.969×0.910×1.046×1.01222.94%
Doubles /BIP3.85%÷0.950×0.830×1.046×1.0123.55%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.820×1.046×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP1.28%÷0.916×0.830—×1.0121.18%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 94, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .247 → .210; ISO .055 → .047; BABIP .273 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 491 PAwOBA .260 → .236 (−25)K% 26.1% → 33.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.07%÷1.053×1.350——33.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.92%÷1.030×0.710—×1.0274.90%
HBP% /PA0.81%—×0.810—×1.0270.68%
Singles /BIP25.81%÷0.957×0.910×1.032×1.02726.02%
Doubles /BIP5.16%÷0.891×0.830×1.032×1.0275.10%
Triples /BIP0.65%÷1.150×0.820×1.032×1.0270.49%
Home runs /BIP0.97%÷0.990×0.830—×1.0270.83%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 91, 2B 78, 3B 130, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .260 → .236; ISO .066 → .059; BABIP .311 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 60 PAwOBA .312 → .310 (−3)K% 16.7% → 19.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.67%÷1.032×1.220——19.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA1.67%÷1.017×0.680—×1.0501.17%
HBP% /PA1.67%—×0.840—×1.0501.47%
Singles /BIP28.26%÷0.985×0.920×1.050×1.05029.11%
Doubles /BIP2.17%÷0.910×0.910×1.050×1.0502.40%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.880×1.050×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷0.970×0.800—×1.0503.76%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 97, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .312 → .310; ISO .125 → .114; BABIP .304 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AInland Empire 66ers · 551 PAwOBA .261 → .208 (−54)K% 27.0% → 37.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.04%÷0.991×1.360——37.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.62%÷0.995×0.690—×1.0306.87%
HBP% /PA1.09%—×0.780—×1.0300.87%
Singles /BIP22.78%÷1.049×0.920×1.027×1.03021.13%
Doubles /BIP4.73%÷1.023×0.830×1.027×1.0304.06%
Triples /BIP1.18%÷1.006×0.910×1.027×1.0301.13%
Home runs /BIP1.18%÷0.889×0.800—×1.0301.10%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 101, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .261 → .208; ISO .074 → .060; BABIP .287 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).