Arol Vera — OGILVIE

Arol VeraSS Salt Lake Bees

Age 23 S/R 6'2" / 230 lbs AAA HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 230 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†25

AVG/OBP/SLG.178 / .228 / .248

PA230

HR2

K%32

BB%5

BABIP257

ISO70

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	2 teams	—	254	233	52	9	2	0	12	85	7	11	4	223	282	279	561	56	347	33	5	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	2 teams	—	254	227	69	16	3	0	18	59	7	11	4	304	373	401	774	97	406	23	7	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	551	502	78	12	3	4	38	203	6	19	7	155	223	215	439	60	247	37	7	199	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	551	487	101	16	4	4	53	149	6	19	7	207	293	281	574	74	287	27	10	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	551	508	113	17	1	4	21	174	5	12	5	222	260	283	544	61	321	32	4	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	551	494	117	17	2	5	35	138	5	12	5	237	294	310	604	73	310	25	6	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	2 teams	—	399	370	53	9	0	2	21	156	3	3	5	143	195	184	379	41	238	39	5	171	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	2 teams	—	399	360	65	13	0	2	31	115	3	3	5	181	251	233	485	53	257	29	8	225	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	325	295	50	12	2	5	19	98	6	2	0	169	234	275	509	105	232	30	6	221	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	325	284	60	14	2	6	30	74	6	2	0	211	300	338	638	127	262	23	9	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AAA	LAA	—	90	84	13	2	1	0	3	31	2	1	1	155	202	202	405	48	245	34	3	166	-15	-12	-0	+0	+1	+3	-0.9
YTD	23	AAA	LAA	—	90	83	14	2	1	0	4	24	2	1	1	169	225	217	442	48	237	27	4	204	15	-9	-0	+0	+1	+3	-0.5
ROS	23	AAA	LAA	10%	230	214	38	7	1	2	11	73	3	2	1	178	228	248	476	70	257	32	5	219	25	-19	+0	+0	+2	+7	-1.1
ROS	23	MLB	LAA	10%	23	22	4	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	182	217	227	445	45	256	30	4	208	18	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
FULL	23	AAA	LAA	—	113	106	17	3	1	0	4	38	2	1	1	160	205	208	413	47	250	34	4	175	-8	-14	-0	+0	+1	+3	-1.0
TOT	23	AAA	LAA	—	320	298	51	9	2	2	14	104	5	3	2	171	221	235	456	64	254	32	4	204	14	-31	-0	+0	+3	+9	-1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	LAA	35%	416	386	72	13	2	6	22	127	5	4	2	187	240	277	517	91	258	31	5	234	37	-29	+0	+0	+4	+12	-1.4
2028	25	MLB	LAA	46%	448	414	80	15	2	7	25	133	6	4	3	193	249	290	539	97	261	30	6	245	46	-27	-0	+0	+5	+13	-1.1
2029	26	MLB	LAA	52%	467	430	85	16	2	9	28	137	6	4	3	198	256	307	563	109	263	29	6	251	50	-26	-0	+0	+5	+13	-0.9
2027	24	MLB	LAA	35%	145	134	26	5	1	2	8	44	2	1	1	194	250	291	541	97	258	30	6	224	30	-12	-0	+0	+2	+4	-0.6
2028	25	MLB	LAA	46%	208	191	37	7	1	3	12	62	3	2	1	194	252	288	540	94	261	30	6	235	38	-15	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.7
2029	26	MLB	LAA	52%	242	223	43	8	1	4	14	71	3	2	1	193	250	291	541	99	262	29	6	241	42	-16	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	618	570	110	21	3	9	35	184	8	5	3	193	250	288	537	95	266	30	6	234	37	-44	-0	+0	+7	+18	-2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	600	115	22	3	9	37	194	8	5	3	192	248	283	531	92	265	30	6	234	37	-46	-0	+0	+7	+18	-2.2
Career	—			—	3641	3352	621	110	15	39	197	1186	47	61	30	185	241	262	502	77	270	33	5	225	31	-286	+0	+0	+39	+103	-14.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	112	20	3	7	35	212	8	11	5	187	241	266	507	79	273	33	5	225	31	-51	+0	+0	+7	+18	-2.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	90	82	23	0	0	0	6	20	2	9	2	280	344	280	625		371	22	7	294	83	-2	+1	—	—	+3	0.2
2021	18	ROK	ACL Angels	—	164	145	46	16	3	0	12	39	5	2	2	317	389	469	858	152	426	24	7	377	147	+9	-0	—	—	+5	1.3
2022	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	551	487	101	16	4	4	53	149	6	19	7	207	293	281	574	74	287	27	10	266	62	-24	+1	—	—	+16	-0.7
2023	20	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	60	56	16	1	0	2	1	10	1	2	0	286	310	411	721	125	304	17	2	311	96	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	20	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	491	438	101	16	2	3	34	128	4	10	5	231	292	297	589	66	311	26	7	263	59	-23	+0	—	—	+14	-0.9
2024	21	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	277	251	43	10	0	1	19	84	2	1	5	171	235	223	458	52	250	30	7	212	20	-25	-2	—	—	+8	-1.9
2024	21	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	122	109	22	3	0	1	12	31	1	2	0	202	287	257	544	55	273	25	10	257	55	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2025	22	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	95	84	14	4	0	1	3	27	3	0	0	167	222	250	472	83	224	28	3	207	17	-9	+0	—	—	+3	-0.6
2025	22	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	230	200	46	10	2	5	27	47	3	2	0	230	330	375	705	145	277	20	12	321	104	+1	+0	—	—	+7	0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	626	10	6	193	246	292	+7	+3	-1.5	-0.7
	/162	664	11	6	193	246	292	+7.1	+3.2	-1.6	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Arol Vera (OGILVIE)	23	40	40	40	50	171/221/235	64	254	2	3	32%	4%	14	-1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David García 2023 · AA	23	41	42→40	43→30	37	205/253/305	100	288	10	3	32%	5%	51	-1.7	197/288/276	79	294	6	5	32%	9%	60	-1.0	176/282/234	58	268	4	3	32%	10%	46	-0.7
✕Rey Bruguera 2015 · A	23	41	38→40	43→50	40	199/252/273	74	288	6	6	32%	6%	42	-2.3	190/256/261	71	300	5	5	35%	8%	41	-2.3	147/230/190	43	242	3	0	37%	9%	10	-1.8
✕Stephen Perez 2014 · A	23	39→47	39→30	40→50	39	192/238/273	82	270	6	6	31%	5%	36	-2.7	203/266/272	69	274	4	14	25%	8%	48	-1.9	195/270/253	58	268	5	15	27%	8%	44	-1.0
✕Franklin Navarro 2018 · A	23	43	39→40	45→40	41	210/255/291	81	282	6	4	27%	6%	47	-1.9	210/248/301	91	331	8	6	37%	5%	47	-1.9	185/198/257	72	313	7	0	43%	2%	11	-1.1
✕Elevys Gonzalez 2013 · AA	23	42→50	40→45	42→45	41	203/255/300	97	281	7	7	29%	6%	50	-1.7	189/257/288	99	278	8	13	32%	8%	49	-1.8	127/218/220	93	182	9	25	34%	9%	14	-1.2
✕Trevor Coleman 2011 · A	23	38	40	42→40	39	188/239/274	87	250	8	5	28%	5%	37	-2.6	201/275/296	95	260	9	6	24%	9%	59	-1.1	191/275/276	85	240	8	3	23%	10%	53	-1.0
✕Jio Mier 2014 · AA	23	38→43	38→40	43→50	44	186/248/258	72	254	7	10	28%	7%	37	-2.6	200/259/284	84	270	7	9	27%	7%	48	-1.9	199/259/281	82	265	6	7	26%	7%	45	-1.3
✕Drew Lee 2011 · A	23	42	41→45	43→45	37	208/235/309	101	272	8	6	27%	4%	43	-2.2	212/244/306	94	289	7	5	28%	4%	46	-2.0	210/235/303	93	284	7	3	28%	2%	40	-1.4
✕Edgar Duran 2014 · AA	23	43→45	38→40	45→50	38	207/247/283	76	271	5	11	26%	4%	42	-2.3	197/240/263	66	252	4	8	23%	4%	33	-2.9	194/237/247	54	245	3	4	21%	4%	26	-1.3
✕Nick Ciuffo 2018 · AA	23	43→42	39→40	44→40	39	209/246/293	84	282	6	4	28%	5%	44	-2.1	206/249/311	105	290	10	4	31%	5%	51	-1.7	195/234/285	90	281	10	1	34%	4%	34	-0.9
✕David Rodríguez 2019 · AA	23	44	39→40	43→40	41	212/263/301	89	283	7	4	27%	5%	54	-1.4	214/270/331	117	291	12	6	29%	7%	66	-0.6	199/258/324	126	271	16	4	32%	7%	55	-0.5
✕Jose Martinez 2019 · AA	22	43	36→30	42→45	44	203/257/267	65	271	3	5	26%	7%	43	-2.2	204/261/284	80	267	6	8	24%	7%	49	-1.8	193/251/262	69	244	5	8	22%	7%	36	-1.6
✕Andrew Ely 2017 · AAA	24	41→43	37→40	40	40	199/249/269	70	274	5	6	28%	5%	40	-2.4	201/273/280	79	273	5	4	26%	8%	53	-1.5	189/272/266	77	251	5	1	25%	9%	49	-0.9
✕Jose Lozada 2009 · A	23	41	40→45	41→45	39	201/241/295	94	263	7	6	26%	4%	43	-2.2	211/256/303	92	276	6	6	25%	5%	51	-1.7	239/290/277	38	321	2	12	24%	6%	56	-0.4
✕Logan Wade 2015 · A	23	37	40	43→45	35	185/218/279	93	262	7	6	32%	4%	29	-3.2	201/234/293	92	281	5	6	29%	4%	39	-2.5	202/232/294	93	279	3	5	28%	4%	35	-1.3
✕Jeison Guzmán 2022 · AA	23	43→42	42→45	46→50	37	211/252/316	106	286	9	13	29%	4%	53	-1.5	210/277/345	135	328	15	10	38%	7%	72	-0.2	180/266/341	161	294	21	6	43%	8%	65	-0.3
✕Raymel Flores 2018 · AA	23	41	37→45	46→50	37	195/248/264	68	297	4	11	34%	6%	38	-2.6	193/245/263	70	290	4	11	33%	6%	37	-2.7	153/200/189	36	233	0	13	33%	5%	-6	-1.7
✕Chuck Moorman 2017 · A	23	37	37→40	39→30	36	183/216/254	71	254	4	4	29%	4%	20	-3.8	193/237/282	89	283	7	3	33%	5%	38	-2.6	184/229/268	84	273	7	0	34%	5%	28	-1.5
✕Jerome Pena 2012 · A	23	43→34	36→40	42→45	45	203/268/275	72	283	3	6	28%	7%	50	-1.8	199/255/281	82	302	5	8	33%	6%	46	-2.0	193/255/321	127	323	12	7	41%	7%	53	-0.5
✕Claudio Bautista 2017 · AA	23	40→43	42→45	43→45	38	202/242/304	102	276	10	8	30%	5%	46	-2.0	207/257/325	118	293	13	6	33%	5%	59	-1.1	186/234/314	128	255	18	0	34%	4%	43	-0.9