Fran Castro prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Fran Castro P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%21.5%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	15	0	21	97	13	10	1	0%	1.4	9.1%	12.9%	-3.8%	1.4%	3.86	4.75	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	15	0	21	97	13	10	1	0%	1.4	13.4%	10.3%	3.1%	1.0%	3.86	3.91	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	17	0	27	128	30	11	3	0%	1.6	15.9%	10.7%	5.2%	2.7%	3.95	4.60	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	17	0	27	128	30	11	3	0%	1.6	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	2.3%	3.95	3.54	—
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	13	0	16	68	21	6	1	0%	1.3	21.0%	11.0%	10.0%	2.3%	4.41	3.96	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	13	0	16	68	21	6	1	0%	1.3	30.9%	8.8%	22.1%	1.5%	4.41	2.43	—
2023	23	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	0	30	152	25	20	4	0%	1.3	12.2%	15.5%	-3.4%	3.3%	7.28	5.87	—
2023	23	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	0	30	152	25	20	4	0%	1.3	12.2%	15.5%	-3.4%	3.3%	7.28	5.87	—
2023	23	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	0	30	152	25	20	4	0%	1.3	16.4%	13.2%	3.3%	2.6%	7.28	5.19	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	11.4%	10.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	LAA	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.3%	10.4%	3.1%	4.74	4.75	-0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	LAA	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.3%	10.4%	3.1%	4.74	4.75	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	3	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.3%	10.4%	3.1%	4.74	4.37	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	83	28	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.3%	10.4%	3.1%	4.74	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		67	0	94	445	62	57	11	0%	1.4	13.9%	12.9%	1.0%	2.6%	5.06	4.97	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	0	200	943	131	122	24	0%	1.4	13.9%	12.9%	1.0%	2.6%	5.06	4.97	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fran Castro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	21.5%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.75	21.7%	10.4%	20	-0.01	—	—	—
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	87
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	86
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	85
Guillermo Moscoso R 2009 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	18.8%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	4.33	15.8%	8.5%	178	+0.77	3.56	486	85
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	85
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	84
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	84
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	84
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	84
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	83
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	83
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	83