Beau Brieske — OGILVIE

Beau Brieske P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.11

FIP4.27

K%21.1%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

SI (17%)

CH (24%)

SL-0.6 (10%)

FB-4.2 (65%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	20	80	31	9	2	0%	1.8	27.2%	14.3%	12.9%	2.0%	3.10	3.71	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	20	80	31	9	2	0%	1.8	38.8%	11.2%	27.5%	2.5%	3.10	2.66	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	107	424	116	23	7	100%	5.1	21.4%	6.1%	15.3%	2.3%	3.12	3.32	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	107	424	116	23	7	100%	5.1	27.4%	5.4%	21.9%	1.7%	3.12	2.42	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	99	410	73	30	17	100%	5.2	17.2%	7.4%	9.9%	4.4%	4.18	4.97	-0.1
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	99	410	73	30	17	100%	5.2	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	4.1%	4.18	4.77	+0.2
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	3	48	205	43	19	5	8%	1.3	20.4%	7.9%	12.5%	2.7%	3.35	3.89	+0.4
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	3	48	205	43	19	5	8%	1.3	20.4%	7.9%	12.5%	2.7%	3.35	3.89	+0.4
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	3	48	205	43	19	5	8%	1.3	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	2.4%	3.35	3.84	+0.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	12	89	373	91	39	5	20%	1.5	23.4%	10.2%	13.2%	1.4%	3.44	3.18	+1.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	12	89	373	91	39	5	20%	1.5	23.4%	10.2%	13.2%	1.4%	3.44	3.18	+1.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	12	89	373	91	39	5	20%	1.5	24.4%	10.5%	13.9%	1.3%	3.44	3.10	+1.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	2	33	155	26	19	9	6%	1.0	15.5%	10.7%	4.9%	5.1%	7.36	5.92	-0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	2	33	155	26	19	9	6%	1.0	15.5%	10.7%	4.9%	5.1%	7.36	5.92	-0.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	2	33	155	26	19	9	6%	1.0	16.8%	12.3%	4.5%	5.8%	7.36	6.80	-0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			121	29	223	942	184	81	32	24%	1.8	19.5%	8.6%	10.9%	3.4%	4.24	4.41	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	38	5	48	198	47	17	12	13%	1.3	20.8%	7.8%	13.0%	6.8%	4.84	6.06	-0.8
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	38	5	48	198	47	17	12	13%	1.3	20.8%	7.8%	13.0%	6.8%	4.84	6.06	-0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A RAW	DET	2	2	2	7	2	1	0	100%	1.0	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.50	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	DET	23	3	30	125	31	11	8	13%	1.3	24.8%	8.8%	16.0%	6.4%	4.80	5.63	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	DET	13	0	16	66	14	5	4	0%	1.3	21.2%	7.6%	13.6%	6.1%	5.51	5.59	-0.2
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	DET	13	0	16	66	14	5	4	0%	1.3	21.2%	7.6%	13.6%	6.1%	5.51	5.59	-0.2
ROS	28	MLB MLE	DET	5	0	5	22	5	2	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	3.0%	4.11	4.27	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	DET	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	3.0%	4.11	4.27	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	54	220	52	19	13	—	—	23.5%	8.7%	14.7%	5.8%	4.77	5.89	-0.8
FULL	28	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	22	91	52	19	13	—	—	56.7%	21.1%	35.6%	13.9%	11.84	8.62	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	53	0	55	233	48	24	8	0%	1.0	20.7%	10.4%	10.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.93	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	50	0	52	220	44	24	8	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.7%	9.2%	3.6%	5.00	5.14	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	50	0	53	224	46	23	8	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.4%	10.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.93	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	47	0	49	207	41	22	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.7%	9.2%	3.6%	5.00	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		223	29	330	1395	276	129	48	13%	1.5	19.8%	9.2%	10.6%	3.4%	4.44	4.48	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		135	18	200	846	167	78	29	13%	1.5	19.8%	9.2%	10.6%	3.4%	4.44	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		216	62	445	1845	378	154	61	29%	2.1	20.5%	8.3%	12.1%	3.3%	3.95	4.25	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	28	200	830	170	69	28	29%	2.1	20.5%	8.3%	12.1%	3.3%	3.95	4.25	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Beau Brieske (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	21.3%	10.7%	2.9%	—	5.03	20.3%	9.8%	107	+0.40	—	—	—
Zach McAllister R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	28	SU	3.70	23.2%	9.0%	2.6%	.309	4.18	24.0%	17.4%	119	+0.48	2.82	363	73
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	73
Trevor May R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SU	3.74	26.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.291	3.47	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.27	3.05	432	73
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	73
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	72
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	71
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	71
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	71
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	71
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	71
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	71
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	71
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	71
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	70
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	70
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	70
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	70
J.J. Hoover R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	22.6%	8.6%	4.2%	.350	5.77	20.3%	10.0%	137	+1.21	4.22	258	70
Connor Brogdon R 2023 · 4.57 FIP	28	SU	4.57	21.6%	10.6%	3.6%	.273	5.24	23.6%	16.6%	97	+0.67	2.98	401	70
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	20.6%	10.6%	1.28	4.75
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43