Beau Brieske
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 49 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.50
FIP4.68
K%21.3%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%10.5%
ROS IP49
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6795.7
Whiff%
p2121.2%
K%
p1015.5%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
SI (17%)
CH (24%)
SL-0.6 (10%)
FB-4.2 (65%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 20 | 80 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 27.2% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 2.0% | 3.10 | 3.71 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 20 | 80 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 38.8% | 11.2% | 27.5% | 2.5% | 3.10 | 2.66 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 107 | 424 | 116 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.4% | 6.1% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 3.12 | 3.53 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 107 | 424 | 116 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 27.4% | 5.4% | 21.9% | 1.7% | 3.12 | 2.42 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 99 | 410 | 73 | 30 | 17 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.2% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 4.18 | 5.05 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 99 | 410 | 73 | 30 | 17 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 4.1% | 4.18 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 36 | 3 | 48 | 205 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 8% | 1.3 | 20.4% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 3.35 | 3.96 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 36 | 3 | 48 | 205 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 8% | 1.3 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 2.4% | 3.35 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 12 | 89 | 373 | 91 | 39 | 5 | 20% | 1.5 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 1.5% | 3.44 | 3.25 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 12 | 89 | 373 | 91 | 39 | 5 | 20% | 1.5 | 24.4% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 1.3% | 3.44 | 3.10 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 2 | 33 | 155 | 26 | 19 | 9 | 6% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.36 | 6.05 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 2 | 33 | 155 | 26 | 19 | 9 | 6% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 12.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.36 | 6.80 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 20 | 4 | 23 | 95 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 20% | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 46 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 44 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 44 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 72 | 300 | 65 | 31 | 11 | — | — | 21.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.54 | 3.16 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 58 | 244 | 65 | 31 | 11 | — | — | 26.5% | 12.8% | 13.7% | 4.5% | 5.64 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 44 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 46 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 41 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 259 | 29 | 366 | 1550 | 309 | 150 | 52 | 11% | 1.4 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 142 | 16 | 200 | 847 | 169 | 82 | 28 | 11% | 1.4 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 198 | 61 | 420 | 1742 | 359 | 149 | 56 | 31% | 2.1 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 3.88 | 4.21 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 94 | 29 | 200 | 830 | 171 | 71 | 27 | 31% | 2.1 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 3.88 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Beau Brieske (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 3.0% | — | 5.13 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 107 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 71 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 71 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 70 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 70 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 69 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 69 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 69 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 69 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 69 |
| Ty Adcock R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 21.0% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .194 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 102 | 69 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 69 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 69 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 68 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 68 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.19 | 24.0% | 17.4% | 119 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 363 | 68 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 68 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 68 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 68 |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 55 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 1.29 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |