Beau Brieske

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	59	12	89	3.44	3.10	24.4%	10.5%	1.5	K 23.6% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.17
2025	27	MIX3 levels	32	2	33	7.36	6.80	16.8%	12.3%	-0.9	K 15.5% · BB 10.7% · FIP 5.92
2026	28	MIX3 levels	43	5	57	4.71	5.05	24.4%	8.1%	-0.3	K 22.3% · BB 7.4% · FIP 5.55
2027PROJ	29	MLBDET	56	0	59	4.73	4.91	22.0%	9.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBDET	34	0	36	4.96	5.11	21.3%	9.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBDET	23	0	24	5.19	5.35	20.5%	9.8%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo65

xwOBA vs61

K%57

Form3.94 ERA (proj 4.73) · K 25.4% (proj 22.0%) · BB 4.8% (proj 9.1%) ▲▲ last 60d · 16 IP through Oct 27

CompsDiego Moreno (age 29) · Jeremy Fikac (age 29) · Jhan Mariñez (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.73

FIP4.91

K%22.0%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p5723.5%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	20	80	31	9	2	0%	1.8	27.2%	14.3%	12.9%	2.0%	3.10	3.71	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	20	80	31	9	2	0%	1.8	38.8%	11.2%	27.5%	2.5%	3.10	2.66	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	107	424	116	23	7	100%	5.1	21.4%	6.1%	15.3%	2.3%	3.12	3.32	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	107	424	116	23	7	100%	5.1	27.4%	5.4%	21.9%	1.7%	3.12	2.42	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	99	410	73	30	17	100%	5.2	17.2%	7.4%	9.9%	4.4%	4.18	4.97	+0.5
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	99	410	73	30	17	100%	5.2	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	4.1%	4.18	4.77	+0.7
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	3	48	205	43	19	5	8%	1.3	20.4%	7.9%	12.5%	2.7%	3.35	3.89	+0.4
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	3	48	205	43	19	5	8%	1.3	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	2.4%	3.35	3.84	+0.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	12	89	373	91	39	5	20%	1.5	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	1.4%	3.44	3.17	+1.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	12	89	373	91	39	5	20%	1.5	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	1.4%	3.44	3.17	+1.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	12	89	373	91	39	5	20%	1.5	24.4%	10.5%	13.9%	1.3%	3.44	3.10	+1.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	2	33	155	26	19	9	6%	1.0	15.5%	10.7%	4.9%	5.1%	7.36	5.92	-0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	2	33	155	26	19	9	6%	1.0	15.5%	10.7%	4.9%	5.1%	7.36	5.92	-0.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	2	33	155	26	19	9	6%	1.0	16.8%	12.3%	4.5%	5.8%	7.36	6.80	-0.9
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	5	57	234	57	19	13	12%	1.3	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	6.2%	4.71	5.55	-0.7
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	5	57	234	57	19	13	12%	1.3	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	6.2%	4.71	5.55	-0.7
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	5	57	234	57	19	13	12%	1.3	24.4%	8.1%	16.2%	5.6%	4.71	5.05	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			126	29	232	978	194	83	33	23%	1.8	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	3.4%	4.23	4.35	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	DET	56	0	59	249	55	23	10	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.1%	12.8%	3.9%	4.73	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	36	0	37	158	34	15	6	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.4%	11.8%	4.1%	4.96	5.11	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	DET	24	0	25	105	21	10	4	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	4.3%	5.19	5.35	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	34	0	36	152	32	14	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.4%	11.8%	4.1%	4.96	5.11	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	DET	23	0	24	101	21	10	4	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	4.3%	5.19	5.35	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		182	29	291	1227	246	107	43	16%	1.6	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	3.5%	4.40	4.45	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		125	20	200	844	169	74	30	16%	1.6	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	3.5%	4.40	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		221	62	454	1881	389	156	62	28%	2.1	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	3.3%	3.95	4.22	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	27	200	829	172	69	27	28%	2.1	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	3.3%	3.95	4.22	+0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 30 IPFIP 5.63 → 6.17 (+0.53)K% 24.8% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.80%	—	×0.860	21.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.80%	—	×0.900	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	6.40%	÷1.000	×1.100	7.04%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.63 → 6.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 10 IPFIP 8.27 → 9.43 (+1.16)K% 16.3% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.33%	—	×0.860	14.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.33%	—	×0.900	14.69%
HR / BF /BF	8.16%	÷0.872	×1.100	10.30%

Result: FIP 8.27 → 9.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 21 IPFIP 2.59 → 2.72 (+0.13)K% 24.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.18%	—	×0.860	20.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.09%	—	×0.900	10.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.792	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.59 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 11 IPFIP 4.11 → 4.46 (+0.36)K% 21.7% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.860	18.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×0.900	11.74%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.901	×1.100	2.65%

Result: FIP 4.11 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 17 IPFIP 4.05 → 4.53 (+0.48)K% 26.8% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.76%	—	×0.880	23.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.04%	—	×1.050	7.39%
HR / BF /BF	4.23%	÷1.026	×1.100	4.53%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 4.05 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 63 IPFIP 2.40 → 3.62 (+1.23)K% 30.2% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.16%	—	×0.770	23.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.95%	—	×1.150	6.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷0.841	×1.250	2.95%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 68).

Result: FIP 2.40 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAErie SeaWolves · 44 IPFIP 2.36 → 2.88 (+0.52)K% 23.3% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.26%	—	×0.810	18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.65%	—	×1.100	5.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.055	×1.200	1.32%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 2.36 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKFCL Tigers East · 17 IPFIP 1.95 → 3.71 (+1.76)K% 40.0% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.680	27.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.250	14.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Beau Brieske (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	22.0%	9.1%	3.9%	—	5.21	21.0%	11.4%	62	+0.30	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	75
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	72
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	72
Michael Mariot R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	21.8%	7.5%	4.4%	.328	4.65	17.7%	9.5%	136	+0.03	2.40	701	72
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	71
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	70
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	70
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	69
Jacob Barnes R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	29	SU	5.09	21.9%	10.0%	4.7%	.303	3.54	23.1%	15.1%	101	-1.55	1.84	551	69
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	69
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	69
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	68
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	68
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	68
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	68
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	68
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	68
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	68
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	68
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	44	20.4%	9.0%	1.39	4.46
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*