Alex Garbrick prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Alex Garbrick P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%22.9%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	1	17	88	20	15	2	14%	2.5	15.8%	17.4%	-1.6%	2.1%	8.83	5.15	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	1	17	88	20	15	2	14%	2.5	22.7%	17.0%	5.7%	2.3%	8.83	4.89	—
2022	24	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	32	0	44	198	56	28	3	0%	1.4	20.9%	16.7%	4.2%	2.0%	5.36	4.53	—
2022	24	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	32	0	44	198	56	28	3	0%	1.4	28.3%	14.1%	14.1%	1.5%	5.36	3.35	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	14	4	20	89	23	8	2	29%	1.5	19.9%	10.3%	9.6%	3.3%	3.98	4.53	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	14	4	20	89	23	8	2	29%	1.5	19.9%	10.3%	9.6%	3.3%	3.98	4.53	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	14	4	20	89	23	8	2	29%	1.5	25.8%	9.0%	16.9%	2.2%	3.98	3.30	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	17	76	16	11	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	14.5%	6.6%	1.3%	3.24	3.88	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	17	76	16	11	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	14.5%	6.6%	1.3%	3.24	3.88	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	0	17	76	16	11	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	14.5%	6.6%	1.3%	3.24	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.0%	4.40	4.40	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	3.2%	4.47	4.52	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	3.2%	4.47	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	3.2%	4.47	4.14	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	66	33	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	3.2%	4.47	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		68	5	98	451	89	69	10	7%	1.4	19.7%	15.2%	4.5%	2.2%	5.33	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		139	10	200	920	182	140	20	7%	1.4	19.7%	15.2%	4.5%	2.2%	5.33	4.54	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Garbrick (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	22.9%	9.5%	3.0%	—	4.52	22.7%	13.0%	20	+0.12	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	85
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	85
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	84
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	83
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	83
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	83
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	82
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	81
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	81
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	80
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	80
Brad Deppermann R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	22.7%	9.4%	3.4%	.417	2.87	19.5%	13.2%	71	-1.38	1.94	143	80
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	79
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	79
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	79
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	78
Rafael Betancourt R 2003 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	23.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.216	2.84	25.0%	20.8%	191	-0.97	1.79	686	78