Marc Church

P Round Rock Express

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 189 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIEFG #329

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	21	27	4.05	3.44	26.1%	8.7%	0.4	K 22.2% · BB 6.8% · FIP 2.78
2025	24	MIX4 levels	13	12	7.50	5.43	22.4%	22.4%	-0.1	K 22.4% · BB 22.4% · FIP 4.86
2026	25	MIX2 levels	32	34	6.35	3.72	26.8%	14.3%	—	K 22.7% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.04
2027PROJ	26	MLBTEX	57	60	4.65	4.65	23.1%	12.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBTEX	24	25	4.64	4.66	23.1%	12.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBTEX	34	36	4.67	4.71	23.0%	12.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command45FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJesus Pirela (age 26) · Ronald Peña (age 26) · Carlos Fisher (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%23.1%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD3545

K†5555

SL+1.4 (49%)

CH (3%)

FB-2.3 (47%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	19	0	27	114	49	8	4	0%	1.4	31.8%	8.3%	23.5%	4.6%	4.28	3.98	—
2021	20	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	19	0	27	114	49	8	4	0%	1.4	43.0%	7.0%	36.0%	3.5%	4.28	2.30	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	49	206	78	14	11	0%	1.3	29.6%	7.6%	21.9%	6.3%	4.22	5.05	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	49	206	78	14	11	0%	1.3	37.9%	6.8%	31.1%	5.3%	4.22	3.69	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	2	62	268	79	38	7	5%	1.4	24.8%	13.5%	11.3%	2.9%	3.63	4.31	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	2	62	268	79	38	7	5%	1.4	29.5%	14.2%	15.3%	2.6%	3.63	3.86	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	0	27	115	30	10	3	0%	1.3	22.2%	6.8%	15.4%	1.3%	4.05	2.78	+0.6
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	0	27	115	30	10	3	0%	1.3	22.2%	6.8%	15.4%	1.3%	4.05	2.78	+0.6
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	0	27	115	30	10	3	0%	1.3	26.1%	8.7%	17.4%	2.6%	4.05	3.44	+0.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	0	12	67	15	15	1	0%	0.9	22.4%	22.4%	0.0%	1.5%	7.50	4.86	-0.0
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	0	12	67	15	15	1	0%	0.9	22.4%	22.4%	0.0%	1.5%	7.50	4.86	-0.0
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	0	12	67	15	15	1	0%	0.9	22.4%	22.4%	0.0%	1.5%	7.50	5.43	-0.1
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	34	168	45	24	3	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	2.1%	6.35	4.04	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	34	168	45	24	3	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	2.1%	6.35	4.04	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	34	168	45	24	3	0%	1.1	26.8%	14.3%	12.5%	1.8%	6.35	3.72	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	6	27	6	6	0	0%	0.9	22.2%	22.2%	0.0%	0.0%	3.18	4.16	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TEX	57	0	60	253	58	32	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.7%	10.3%	2.7%	4.65	4.65	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	56	0	59	247	57	31	7	0%	1.0	23.1%	12.5%	10.6%	2.8%	4.64	4.66	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	54	0	57	240	55	30	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	2.9%	4.67	4.71	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	24	0	25	106	24	13	3	0%	1.0	23.1%	12.5%	10.6%	2.8%	4.64	4.66	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	34	0	36	152	35	19	4	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	2.9%	4.67	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	66	282	65	38	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.3%	9.6%	2.6%	4.53	4.29	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	854	197	115	21	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.3%	9.6%	2.6%	4.53	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		165	2	211	938	242	107	32	1%	1.3	25.8%	11.4%	14.4%	3.4%	4.56	4.24	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	2	200	889	230	101	30	1%	1.3	25.8%	11.4%	14.4%	3.4%	4.56	4.24	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marc Church (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	23.1%	12.7%	2.7%	—	4.68	23.0%	10.6%	115	+0.03	—	—	—
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	92
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	91
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	90
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	88
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	88
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	88
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	88
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	87
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	86
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	86
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	85
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	85
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	85
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.09	246	85
Eduard Santos R 2016 · 3.86 FIP	26	SU	3.86	22.2%	14.4%	1.5%	.248	2.04	31.1%	18.7%	16	-1.82	2.04	138	85
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	85
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	84
Kyle Schepel R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	26	SU	3.54	21.6%	11.6%	1.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	156	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	23.0%	12.9%	1.06	4.61
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*