Jackson Leath prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jackson Leath P ACL Rangers

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 192 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%22.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	28	0	31	150	29	22	6	0%	1.1	14.3%	17.3%	-3.0%	5.7%	8.42	7.21	—
2022	23	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	28	0	31	150	29	22	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	14.7%	4.7%	4.0%	8.42	5.87	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	48	195	50	19	4	0%	1.4	19.2%	11.3%	7.9%	2.5%	1.86	4.27	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	48	195	50	19	4	0%	1.4	19.2%	11.3%	7.9%	2.5%	1.86	4.27	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	48	195	50	19	4	0%	1.4	25.6%	9.7%	15.9%	2.1%	1.86	3.29	—
2024	25	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	2	0	2	7	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	25	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	2	0	2	7	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	25	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	2	0	2	7	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TEX	27	0	28	118	26	12	4	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.1%	12.2%	3.1%	4.53	4.57	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	TEX	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.1%	12.2%	3.1%	4.53	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	10	4	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.1%	12.2%	3.1%	4.53	4.19	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	79	20	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.1%	12.2%	3.1%	4.53	4.19	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		65	0	81	352	59	48	13	0%	1.3	16.7%	13.7%	3.1%	3.8%	4.32	5.50	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	0	200	866	145	118	33	0%	1.3	16.7%	13.7%	3.1%	3.8%	4.32	5.50	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Leath (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	22.4%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.57	22.4%	12.2%	28	+0.07	—	—	—
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	90
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	90
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	87
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	86
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	86
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	86
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	85
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	85
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	84
Brandon Gomes R 2011 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	20.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	4.17	22.3%	15.2%	71	+0.43	3.48	190	84
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	84
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	84
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	84
Greg Aquino R 2005 · 5.03 FIP	27	SU	5.03	21.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.357	4.34	22.5%	13.3%	62	-0.69	4.10	154	84
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	22.4%	10.1%	1.17	4.51
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16