Ryan Gusto

P Miami Marlins

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 232 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.0 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAAHOU	29	26	148	3.70	3.50	22.6%	8.5%	—	K 19.5% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.93
2025	26	MIX2 levels	29	19	106	5.86	4.39	20.7%	7.9%	0.6	K 21.4% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.47
2026	27	MIX2 levels	33	25	133	4.00	3.69	21.7%	7.7%	1.9	K 20.4% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.83
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIA	15	15	92	4.60	4.52	20.1%	7.8%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIA	14	14	83	4.56	4.59	19.5%	8.1%	0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBMIA	13	13	78	4.69	4.79	18.8%	8.4%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$1M2028Arb-2$1M2029Arb-3$2M2030Arb-4$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo52

K%27

xwOBA vs25

Whiff%17

CompsFabio Castillo (age 28) · Raynel Espinal (age 27) · Erik Hiljus (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.60

FIP4.52

K%20.1%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP92

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

SL (24%)

FB (41%)

SI (12%)

CU (9%)

CH (13%)

CT (12%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.2M
2028	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-4	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$2M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	2	1	4	17	6	3	0	50%	1.8	35.3%	17.6%	17.6%	0.0%	2.45	2.35	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	2	1	4	17	6	3	0	50%	1.8	35.3%	17.6%	17.6%	0.0%	2.45	2.28	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	13	90	395	96	36	14	57%	3.9	18.5%	10.5%	8.0%	4.6%	5.50	5.38	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	13	90	395	96	36	14	57%	3.9	24.3%	9.1%	15.2%	3.5%	5.50	4.19	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	14	110	468	115	46	13	54%	4.2	19.5%	11.0%	8.4%	2.8%	4.50	4.39	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	14	110	468	115	46	13	54%	4.2	24.6%	9.8%	14.7%	2.8%	4.50	3.80	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	29	26	148	623	141	53	14	90%	5.1	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	2.7%	3.70	3.93	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	29	26	148	623	141	53	14	90%	5.1	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	2.7%	3.70	3.93	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	29	26	148	623	141	53	14	90%	5.1	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	2.2%	3.70	3.50	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	19	106	478	99	38	17	66%	3.7	21.4%	7.9%	13.5%	4.0%	5.86	4.47	+0.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	19	106	478	99	38	17	66%	3.7	21.4%	7.9%	13.5%	4.0%	5.86	4.47	+0.5
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	19	106	478	99	38	17	66%	3.7	20.7%	7.9%	12.8%	3.6%	5.86	4.39	+0.6
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	25	133	581	126	45	15	76%	4.0	20.4%	7.5%	13.0%	2.8%	4.00	3.83	+1.7
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	25	133	581	126	45	15	76%	4.0	20.4%	7.5%	13.0%	2.8%	4.00	3.83	+1.7
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	25	133	581	126	45	15	76%	4.0	21.7%	7.7%	13.9%	2.6%	4.00	3.69	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			50	35	190	845	171	64	28	70%	3.8	20.2%	7.6%	12.7%	3.3%	4.93	4.23	+1.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIA	15	15	92	388	78	30	12	100%	6.1	20.1%	7.8%	12.3%	3.2%	4.60	4.52	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	88	369	72	30	12	100%	5.8	19.5%	8.1%	11.5%	3.3%	4.65	4.68	+0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	82	347	65	29	12	100%	5.9	18.8%	8.4%	10.5%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	83	350	68	28	11	100%	5.9	19.5%	8.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.56	4.59	+0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	78	329	62	28	11	100%	6.0	18.8%	8.4%	10.5%	3.4%	4.69	4.79	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	62	351	1526	302	120	50	81%	4.6	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	3.3%	4.79	4.23	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	35	200	870	172	68	28	80%	4.6	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	3.3%	4.79	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		142	98	591	2562	513	225	83	69%	4.2	20.0%	8.8%	11.2%	3.2%	4.57	4.30	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	33	200	867	174	76	28	69%	4.2	20.0%	8.8%	11.2%	3.2%	4.57	4.30	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Gusto (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	20.1%	7.8%	3.2%	—	4.78	19.2%	11.0%	170	+0.26	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	73
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	71
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	71
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	70
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	70
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	70
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	69
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	68
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	68
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	68
Gary Glover R 2005 · 4.20 FIP	28	SP-	4.20	20.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.327	4.50	15.2%	8.3%	132	+0.30	4.02	516	67
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	67
Kyle Snyder R 2006 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP-	4.47	19.9%	5.9%	4.2%	.373	4.83	16.9%	4.5%	54	+0.36	3.80	236	67
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	67
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	66
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	66
Drew VerHagen R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	28	SW	4.11	19.5%	7.3%	3.2%	.344	6.00	17.0%	4.7%	22	+1.89	2.80	487	66
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	65
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	65
Colin Rea R 2018 · 5.61 FIP	28	SP	5.61	17.6%	11.3%	4.7%	.344	4.14	17.7%	9.8%	198	-1.47	2.57	1,116	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	90	19.8%	7.9%	1.29	4.79
Daniel Mengden ('22)	1.5	77	17.5%	7.8%	1.25	4.65
Drew Hutchison ('22)	2.9	84	19.2%	8.2%	1.29	4.89
Rubby De La Rosa ('17)	2.1	105	19.6%	8.6%	1.32	4.49
Allen Ripley ('78-'82, 1 WAR*)	2.3	93	17.2%*	7.5%*	1.41*	5.06*
Jimmy Zinn ('19-'29, 1 WAR*)	1.5	75	21.3%*	7.0%*	1.24*	4.61*
Gary Serum ('77-'79, 1 WAR*)	1.4	90	17.8%*	6.3%*	1.29*	5.01*