Stu Flesland III

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 207 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	ACOL	32	7	71	3.91	2.64	22.2%	8.6%	—	K 16.4% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.44
2025	24	A+COL	30	10	95	3.97	4.05	21.5%	6.5%	—	K 16.6% · BB 7.4% · FIP 5.14
2026	25	MIX3 levels	25	13	107	2.85	3.32	21.1%	8.9%	—	K 17.4% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.61
2027PROJ	26	MLBCOL	67	0	70	4.72	4.72	16.1%	9.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCOL	34	0	36	4.69	4.71	16.7%	8.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCOL	52	0	55	4.72	4.76	17.0%	9.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsBrian Duensing (age 26) · Matt Tracy (age 26) · Irwin Delgado (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%16.1%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%7.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	3	0	4	16	2	4	0	0%	1.2	12.5%	25.0%	-12.5%	0.0%	2.45	5.21	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	3	0	4	16	2	4	0	0%	1.2	12.5%	25.0%	-12.5%	0.0%	2.45	5.28	—
2024	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	32	7	71	315	70	27	2	22%	2.2	16.4%	10.1%	6.3%	0.8%	3.91	3.44	—
2024	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	32	7	71	315	70	27	2	22%	2.2	16.4%	10.1%	6.3%	0.8%	3.91	3.44	—
2024	23	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	32	7	71	315	70	27	2	22%	2.2	22.2%	8.6%	13.7%	0.6%	3.91	2.64	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	30	10	95	386	83	25	14	33%	3.2	16.6%	7.4%	9.1%	4.5%	3.97	5.14	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	30	10	95	386	83	25	14	33%	3.2	16.6%	7.4%	9.1%	4.5%	3.97	5.14	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	30	10	95	386	83	25	14	33%	3.2	21.5%	6.5%	15.0%	3.6%	3.97	4.05	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	13	107	436	92	39	7	52%	4.3	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	1.5%	2.85	3.61	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	13	107	436	92	39	7	52%	4.3	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	1.5%	2.85	3.61	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	13	107	436	92	39	7	52%	4.3	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	1.6%	2.85	3.32	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	COL	67	0	70	296	48	27	8	0%	1.0	16.1%	9.0%	7.1%	2.7%	4.72	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	91	0	95	402	67	36	11	0%	1.0	16.7%	8.9%	7.8%	2.7%	4.69	4.71	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	COL	88	0	92	390	66	35	11	0%	1.0	17.0%	9.0%	8.0%	2.9%	4.72	4.76	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	COL	84	0	88	372	63	34	11	0%	1.0	17.0%	9.1%	7.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.86	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	COL	79	0	83	350	59	33	11	0%	1.0	16.8%	9.4%	7.4%	3.2%	4.93	5.03	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	34	0	36	152	25	14	4	0%	1.1	16.7%	8.9%	7.8%	2.7%	4.69	4.71	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	COL	52	0	55	232	39	21	7	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.0%	8.0%	2.9%	4.72	4.76	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	COL	59	0	62	262	44	24	8	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.1%	7.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.86	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	COL	62	0	65	274	46	26	9	0%	1.0	16.8%	9.4%	7.4%	3.2%	4.93	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		208	0	218	920	155	84	28	0%	1.0	16.9%	9.1%	7.7%	3.0%	4.80	4.48	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	77	26	0%	1.1	16.9%	9.1%	7.7%	3.0%	4.80	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		90	30	278	1153	194	105	27	33%	3.1	16.8%	9.1%	7.7%	2.3%	3.50	4.10	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	22	200	830	140	76	19	33%	3.1	16.8%	9.1%	7.7%	2.3%	3.50	4.10	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stu Flesland III (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	16.1%	9.0%	2.7%	—	4.77	16.9%	7.9%	276	+0.05	—	—	—
Brian Duensing L 2009 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	14.8%	8.4%	1.9%	.286	3.90	15.2%	9.3%	401	-0.08	2.57	799	88
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	87
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	85
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	83
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	82
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	79
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	79
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	77
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	76
Ryan Kellogg L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	12.4%	5.8%	2.2%	.359	4.33	12.3%	7.1%	64	+0.34	3.65	446	75
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	75
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	75
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	75
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	74
Pat Misch L 2008 · 5.05 FIP	26	SW	5.05	16.5%	5.7%	4.8%	.268	4.53	10.8%	5.4%	100	-0.52	3.50	265	74
Austin Hamilton L 2019 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	17.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	135	73
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	73
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	73
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	72
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	86	16.7%	9.1%	1.12	4.77
Myles Thomas ('26-'30, -1 WAR*)	2.2	87	16.5%*	9.7%*	1.08*	4.91*
Jim Shellenback ('66-'77, -2 WAR*)	2.3	76	15.2%*	9.7%*	1.08*	4.78*
Guillermo Moscoso ('13)	1.1	74	17.4%	9.0%	1.13	4.28
Marlin Stuart ('49-'54, -2 WAR*)	2.4	81	16.3%*	9.8%*	1.06*	4.88*
Nelson Figueroa ('11)	2.5	62	15.3%	9.2%	1.19	4.55
Micah Owings ('12)	2.4	97	16.4%	9.8%	1.19	4.86