Nick Lockhart prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nick Lockhart P Hickory Crawdads

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 204 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%21.4%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	6	0	6	27	9	4	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	14.8%	18.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.16	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	6	0	6	27	9	4	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	14.8%	18.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.10	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	6	49	214	55	21	8	33%	2.7	18.3%	11.6%	6.6%	4.9%	6.84	5.73	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	6	49	214	55	21	8	33%	2.7	25.7%	9.8%	15.9%	3.7%	6.84	4.27	—
2022	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	30	0	49	202	60	17	5	0%	1.6	22.0%	9.9%	12.0%	3.5%	4.22	4.44	—
2022	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	30	0	49	202	60	17	5	0%	1.6	29.7%	8.4%	21.3%	2.5%	4.22	3.02	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	6	43	184	39	17	4	29%	2.0	16.1%	10.6%	5.4%	2.8%	3.80	4.63	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	6	43	184	39	17	4	29%	2.0	16.1%	10.6%	5.4%	2.8%	3.80	4.63	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	6	43	184	39	17	4	29%	2.0	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	2.2%	3.80	3.69	—
2025	24	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0%	1.3	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.41	—
2025	24	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0%	1.3	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.41	—
2025	24	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0%	1.3	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.56	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TEX	24	0	25	107	23	10	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.51	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	TEX	10	0	11	46	10	4	1	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	10	4	1	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.13	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	74	18	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		76	12	148	632	123	69	23	16%	1.9	19.5%	10.8%	8.6%	3.6%	4.94	4.81	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	16	200	856	167	93	31	16%	1.9	19.5%	10.8%	8.6%	3.6%	4.94	4.81	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Lockhart (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	21.4%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.51	21.8%	12.1%	25	-0.05	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	85
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	85
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	85
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	84
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	83
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	82
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	82
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	82
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	82
Guillermo Moscoso R 2009 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	18.8%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	4.33	15.8%	8.5%	178	+0.77	3.56	486	82
Jonathan Albaladejo R 2008 · 3.46 FIP	25	SU	3.46	22.4%	10.3%	1.7%	.368	5.02	14.0%	3.8%	46	+1.56	2.30	173	81
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	81
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	81
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	81
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	81
Miguel Sánchez R 2019 · 3.65 FIP	25	SU	3.65	21.3%	9.0%	2.2%	.305	4.59	19.1%	9.7%	83	+0.94	2.54	309	81
José Cisnero R 2013 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	20.7%	8.6%	2.6%	.326	4.50	26.1%	14.4%	12	+0.64	2.26	322	81
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.6%	9.7%	1.16	4.54
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78