Carter Rustad

P Akron RubberDucks

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 194 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	MIX3 levels	33	1	53	3.23	2.78	24.6%	10.1%	—	K 19.1% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.43
2026	25	AACLE	43	0	79	3.19	3.42	23.2%	6.1%	—	K 18.8% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.17
2027PROJ	26	MLBCLE	47	0	49	4.48	4.48	19.4%	8.1%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCLE	25	0	26	4.49	4.50	19.8%	8.3%	0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCLE	38	0	40	4.53	4.57	19.9%	8.5%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJon Leicester (age 25) · Jose Rafael De Paula (age 26) · Troy Neiman (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%19.4%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	1	53	228	56	23	2	3%	1.6	19.1%	11.6%	7.5%	0.9%	3.23	3.43	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	1	53	228	56	23	2	3%	1.6	19.1%	11.6%	7.5%	0.9%	3.23	3.43	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	1	53	228	56	23	2	3%	1.6	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	0.9%	3.23	2.78	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	43	0	79	328	76	20	9	0%	1.8	18.8%	6.7%	12.1%	3.3%	3.19	4.17	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	43	0	79	328	76	20	9	0%	1.8	18.8%	6.7%	12.1%	3.3%	3.19	4.17	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	43	0	79	328	76	20	9	0%	1.8	23.2%	6.1%	17.1%	2.7%	3.19	3.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CLE	47	0	49	207	40	17	6	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.1%	11.3%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	67	0	70	296	58	24	9	0%	1.0	19.8%	8.3%	11.5%	3.0%	4.49	4.50	+0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	CLE	65	0	68	287	57	24	9	0%	1.0	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.1%	4.53	4.57	-0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	CLE	62	0	65	274	54	24	9	0%	1.0	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.2%	4.62	4.69	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	25	0	26	110	22	9	3	0%	1.0	19.8%	8.3%	11.5%	3.0%	4.49	4.50	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	CLE	38	0	40	169	34	14	5	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.1%	4.53	4.57	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	CLE	44	0	46	194	39	17	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.2%	4.62	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	0	113	475	94	41	15	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.5%	11.3%	3.1%	4.56	4.22	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	73	27	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.5%	11.3%	3.1%	4.56	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		76	1	132	556	105	48	13	1%	1.7	18.9%	8.7%	10.2%	2.3%	3.20	3.87	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	2	200	842	159	73	19	1%	1.7	18.9%	8.7%	10.2%	2.3%	3.20	3.87	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carter Rustad (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	19.4%	8.1%	2.9%	—	4.58	19.8%	11.4%	203	+0.10	—	—	—
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	88
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	88
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	88
Ryan Halstead R 2018 · 4.08 FIP	26	SU	4.08	18.0%	6.7%	3.0%	.296	3.24	16.1%	8.7%	64	-0.84	3.12	222	88
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	88
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	87
John Brebbia R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.346	3.20	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.91	2.89	576	87
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	87
Cole Johnson R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.4%	1.5%	.311	3.61	14.0%	9.2%	49	+0.09	3.52	101	87
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	87
Carlos Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.2%	8.7%	2.0%	.266	4.37	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.59	3.75	154	86
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	86
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	86
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	86
Sean Donatello R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	26	SU	3.64	17.8%	7.4%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	141	86
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	86
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	86
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	86
Josh Martin R 2016 · 3.38 FIP	26	SU	3.38	19.1%	8.7%	1.4%	.279	4.06	21.5%	10.2%	92	+0.68	2.41	225	86
Jack Hartman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	26	SU	4.34	20.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.310	4.29	17.6%	5.6%	46	-0.05	3.46	161	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	63	19.8%	8.4%	1.19	4.53
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*