Ryan Cabarcas — OGILVIE

Ryan Cabarcas P Frederick Keys

Age 26 LHP 5'10" / 180 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%20.8%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	0	33	155	42	17	0	0%	1.4	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	0.0%	3.58	2.21	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	0	33	155	42	17	0	0%	1.4	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	0.0%	3.58	2.21	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	0	33	155	42	17	0	0%	1.4	27.1%	11.0%	16.1%	0.0%	3.58	2.09	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	19	0	22	98	22	11	2	0%	1.2	17.3%	12.9%	4.4%	2.6%	6.55	4.68	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	19	0	22	98	22	11	2	0%	1.2	17.3%	12.9%	4.4%	2.6%	6.55	4.68	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	19	0	22	98	22	11	2	0%	1.2	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	2.0%	6.55	3.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	11	0	12	51	11	6	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.1%	9.7%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	28	0	29	122	26	13	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	11.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.70	4.71	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.70	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	9	5	1	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.70	4.33	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	94	19	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.70	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		42	0	55	253	54	27	2	0%	1.3	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	1.0%	4.77	3.16	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	0	200	926	198	97	9	0%	1.3	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	1.0%	4.77	3.16	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Cabarcas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.8%	11.1%	2.9%	—	4.71	21.0%	10.0%	29	+0.00	—	—	—
Kevin Chapman L 2014 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	19.6%	11.3%	3.2%	.297	3.30	22.3%	12.4%	137	-1.33	3.01	194	92
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	91
Wayne Franklin L 2000 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	20.4%	10.7%	1.9%	.319	5.53	13.7%	2.4%	231	+1.73	3.80	315	90
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	89
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	85
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	84
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	84
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	83
Doug Slaten L 2007 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	17.2%	8.6%	2.5%	.316	3.81	17.6%	8.2%	73	-0.27	3.22	139	83
Brendan Nail L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	22.6%	12.5%	2.7%	.311	4.36	19.3%	8.8%	53	+0.09	3.45	165	83
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	82
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	82
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	82
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	81
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	81
John Grabow L 2005 · 4.30 FIP	26	SU	4.30	18.9%	10.4%	2.7%	.265	4.01	19.9%	10.6%	197	-0.29	3.66	471	81
George Sherrill L 2004 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	15.4%	7.7%	2.9%	.273	2.90	28.3%	18.2%	105	-1.46	2.74	323	81
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	81
Tom Windle L 2018 · 4.56 FIP	26	SU	4.56	19.0%	11.8%	2.9%	.269	4.37	17.2%	1.8%	74	-0.19	3.68	330	80
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	80