Ryan Cabarcas
P
Frederick Keys
Age 25
LHP
5'10" / 180 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96106vR 115
ERA4.20
FIP4.20
K%23.5%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.3%
ROS IP10
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 0 | 33 | 155 | 42 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.0% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 3.58 | 2.21 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 0 | 33 | 155 | 42 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.1% | 11.0% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 3.58 | 2.09 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 13 | 0 | 16 | 69 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.1% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 5.06 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.5% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.20 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 26 | 111 | 28 | 11 | 3 | — | — | 25.1% | 9.8% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.5% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.82 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.81 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 208 | 69 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 36 | 0 | 49 | 224 | 51 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 1.1% | 4.07 | 3.03 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 0 | 200 | 921 | 210 | 90 | 10 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 1.1% | 4.07 | 3.03 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Cabarcas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.19 | 23.7% | 14.5% | 20 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 5.10 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 78 | +0.65 | 4.28 | 127 | 84 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 83 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .379 | 4.28 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.16 | 3.12 | 142 | 82 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 81 |
| Jeff Malm L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 101 | 81 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.30 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .276 | 5.09 | 23.0% | 2.4% | 14 | +1.79 | 2.65 | 160 | 81 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.59 | 2.50 | 122 | 80 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 80 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 80 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 80 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.16 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .331 | 3.75 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.59 | 3.08 | 310 | 79 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 79 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.92 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .382 | 3.44 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.48 | 2.84 | 206 | 79 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .341 | 8.96 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.50 | 4.11 | 158 | 78 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 78 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 78 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 78 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.67 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .303 | 4.48 | 25.1% | 13.7% | 150 | +0.81 | 2.95 | 266 | 77 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2029 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 77 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .340 | 5.20 | 16.2% | 2.6% | 55 | +0.75 | 2.34 | 195 | 77 |