Declan Cronin

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	56	0	63	4.74	4.04	18.1%	9.8%	0.4	K 16.0% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.05
2024	26	MIX2 levels	59	0	75	4.34	2.46	23.2%	8.0%	1.9	K 23.5% · BB 7.2% · FIP 2.21
2025	27	MIX2 levels	23	3	23	4.63	4.73	22.8%	14.9%	—	K 19.1% · BB 14.0% · FIP 4.75
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIA	55	0	58	4.21	4.20	22.5%	9.4%	0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBMIA	19	0	20	4.34	4.42	21.9%	9.7%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBMIA	27	0	28	4.52	4.64	21.3%	10.0%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

xwOBA vs64

Whiff%58

K%57

FB Velo41

CompsJustin Miller (age 29) · Kirby Yates (age 29) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA4.21

FIP4.20

K%22.5%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p5723.5%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

FB+1.4 (48%)

SL (52%)

SI (41%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	34	135	29	11	2	0%	1.7	12.6%	11.3%	1.3%	3.3%	2.88	5.26	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	34	135	29	11	2	0%	1.7	21.5%	8.1%	13.3%	1.5%	2.88	3.13	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	47	204	43	22	4	0%	1.4	17.0%	13.0%	4.0%	3.1%	4.56	5.02	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	47	204	43	22	4	0%	1.4	21.1%	10.8%	10.3%	2.0%	4.56	3.78	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	51	216	36	19	4	2%	1.0	13.9%	9.6%	4.3%	1.8%	3.71	4.11	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	51	216	36	19	4	2%	1.0	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	1.9%	3.71	3.83	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	63	276	50	27	6	0%	1.1	16.0%	9.1%	6.9%	2.1%	4.74	4.05	+0.4
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	63	276	50	27	6	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.8%	8.3%	2.2%	4.74	4.04	+0.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	75	327	76	26	2	0%	1.3	23.5%	7.2%	16.3%	0.3%	4.34	2.21	+2.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	75	327	76	26	2	0%	1.3	23.5%	7.2%	16.3%	0.3%	4.34	2.21	+2.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	75	327	76	26	2	0%	1.3	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	0.6%	4.34	2.46	+1.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	23	101	23	15	3	13%	1.0	19.1%	14.0%	5.1%	2.7%	4.63	4.75	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	23	101	23	15	3	13%	1.0	19.1%	14.0%	5.1%	2.7%	4.63	4.75	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	3	23	101	23	15	3	13%	1.0	22.8%	14.9%	7.9%	3.0%	4.63	4.73	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			65	0	81	357	80	29	4	0%	1.3	22.4%	8.1%	14.3%	1.1%	4.98	2.84	+1.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIA	55	0	58	245	55	23	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.4%	13.1%	2.6%	4.21	4.20	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIA	52	0	55	232	51	23	7	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	2.8%	4.34	4.42	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIA	49	0	51	216	46	22	7	0%	1.0	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	3.1%	4.52	4.64	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIA	19	0	20	84	19	8	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	2.8%	4.34	4.42	+0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIA	27	0	28	118	25	12	4	0%	1.0	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	3.1%	4.52	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	0	130	561	124	49	10	0%	1.2	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	1.8%	4.78	3.33	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		171	0	200	865	191	76	15	0%	1.2	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	1.8%	4.78	3.33	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		242	4	293	1259	222	125	24	2%	1.2	17.6%	9.9%	7.7%	1.9%	4.20	3.93	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	3	200	858	151	85	17	2%	1.2	17.6%	9.9%	7.7%	1.9%	4.20	3.93	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Declan Cronin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	22.5%	9.4%	2.6%	—	4.53	21.6%	11.8%	106	+0.33	—	—	—
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	292	85
Kirby Yates R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	29	SU	3.11	26.4%	9.6%	1.8%	.310	2.13	38.5%	32.2%	180	-0.98	0.66	526	80
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	79
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	79
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	78
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	77
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	76
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	76
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	76
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	76
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	76
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	75
Luis García R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	20.6%	10.9%	1.8%	.281	3.74	21.6%	12.6%	179	-0.01	2.33	662	75
Brandon Workman R 2018 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	23.6%	7.5%	3.0%	.253	3.15	29.9%	16.3%	119	-0.57	2.04	398	75
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	74
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	74
Oliver Drake R 2016 · 3.57 FIP	29	SU	3.57	29.7%	10.9%	2.9%	.289	3.25	28.4%	20.1%	183	-0.32	2.26	317	74
Ryan Tepera R 2017 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	25.4%	8.5%	2.2%	.245	4.11	25.5%	16.3%	107	+0.88	2.35	445	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	61	22.1%	9.5%	0.87	4.56
Billy Taylor ('01)	1.6	65	21.7%	9.4%	0.75	4.21
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*