Luis Alcala prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Luis Alcala P FCL Phillies

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 158 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%22.4%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	2	0	2	12	6	3	0	0%	1.2	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	15.43	2.04	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	2	0	2	12	6	3	0	0%	1.2	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	15.43	1.81	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	15	1	32	137	32	16	1	7%	2.2	15.9%	14.6%	1.3%	1.2%	3.90	4.26	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	15	1	32	137	32	16	1	7%	2.2	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	0.7%	3.90	3.01	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	6	0	12	46	9	1	1	0%	2.0	19.6%	2.2%	17.4%	2.2%	1.50	2.92	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	6	0	12	46	9	1	1	0%	2.0	19.6%	2.2%	17.4%	2.2%	1.50	2.93	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	16	1	35	159	30	17	1	6%	2.2	12.8%	13.4%	-0.5%	0.9%	3.31	4.18	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	16	1	35	159	30	17	1	6%	2.2	12.8%	13.4%	-0.5%	0.9%	3.31	4.18	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	16	1	35	159	30	17	1	6%	2.2	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	0.6%	3.31	3.21	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PHI	20	0	21	89	20	9	3	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.0%	4.54	4.53	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	PHI	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.0%	4.54	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.0%	4.54	4.15	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	89	22	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.0%	4.54	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		39	2	82	354	57	45	4	5%	2.1	16.1%	12.8%	3.4%	1.1%	3.62	3.97	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	5	200	863	139	110	10	5%	2.1	16.1%	12.8%	3.4%	1.1%	3.62	3.97	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Alcala (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	22.4%	10.7%	3.0%	—	4.53	22.7%	12.2%	21	-0.05	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	87
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	85
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	85
Jonathan Albaladejo R 2008 · 3.46 FIP	25	SU	3.46	22.4%	10.3%	1.7%	.368	5.02	14.0%	3.8%	46	+1.56	2.30	173	85
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	84
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	83
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	83
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	83
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	83
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	83
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	82
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	82
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	82
Guillermo Moscoso R 2009 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	18.8%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	4.33	15.8%	8.5%	178	+0.77	3.56	486	82
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	82
Kyle Bischoff R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	24	SU	5.26	23.6%	11.8%	4.8%	.240	3.83	21.8%	8.7%	140	-1.43	3.21	162	81
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	81
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	81