Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Astros | 14 | 4 | 39 | 179 | 44 | 24 | 1 | 29% | 2.8 | 16.7% | 16.8% | -0.0% | 0.8% | 2.56 | 4.24 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Astros | 14 | 4 | 39 | 179 | 44 | 24 | 1 | 29% | 2.8 | 24.6% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 0.6% | 2.56 | 3.02 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 103 | 37 | 7 | 68% | 4.0 | 23.8% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 2.1% | 3.76 | 3.94 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 103 | 37 | 7 | 68% | 4.0 | 31.7% | 11.4% | 20.3% | 2.2% | 3.76 | 3.05 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 23 | 121 | 503 | 142 | 70 | 20 | 82% | 4.3 | 23.1% | 15.2% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 4.30 | 5.54 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 23 | 121 | 503 | 142 | 70 | 20 | 82% | 4.3 | 28.2% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 4.0% | 4.30 | 4.63 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 26 | 17 | 101 | 442 | 100 | 60 | 18 | 65% | 3.9 | 19.9% | 14.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.08 | 6.33 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 26 | 17 | 101 | 442 | 100 | 60 | 18 | 65% | 3.9 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 5.08 | 5.22 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 31 | 11 | 71 | 327 | 69 | 44 | 17 | 35% | 2.3 | 18.6% | 14.1% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 6.46 | 7.21 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 31 | 11 | 71 | 327 | 69 | 44 | 17 | 35% | 2.3 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.46 | 6.13 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 73 | 339 | 66 | 36 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.1% | 13.0% | 1.1% | 4.2% | 7.06 | 5.85 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 73 | 339 | 66 | 36 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.5% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 7.06 | 4.56 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 25 | 0 | 39 | 179 | 30 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 14.7% | 16.4% | -1.7% | 3.1% | 6.41 | 5.62 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 44 | 46 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.8% | 15.4% | -0.7% | 4.2% | 6.48 | 6.48 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SD | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.8% | 15.4% | -0.7% | 4.2% | 6.48 | 6.48 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | SD | — | — | 109 | 475 | 74 | 74 | 17 | — | — | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.0% | 3.7% | 6.45 | 6.17 | -1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | SD | — | — | 7 | 30 | 4 | 5 | 1 | — | — | 14.8% | 15.4% | -0.7% | 4.2% | 6.48 | 6.10 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 45 | 43 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 14.9% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 6.29 | 6.30 | -1.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 45 | 41 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 14.6% | 1.4% | 4.1% | 6.20 | 6.24 | -1.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SD | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 44 | 39 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 14.6% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 6.20 | 6.27 | -1.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 14.9% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 6.29 | 6.30 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 28 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 14.6% | 1.4% | 4.1% | 6.20 | 6.24 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SD | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 32 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 14.6% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 6.20 | 6.27 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 119 | 0 | 125 | 527 | 84 | 77 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 14.7% | 1.2% | 4.2% | 6.24 | 5.90 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 135 | 123 | 35 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.9% | 14.7% | 1.2% | 4.2% | 6.24 | 5.90 | -1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 192 | 68 | 521 | 2294 | 447 | 332 | 99 | 35% | 2.7 | 19.5% | 14.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.08 | 5.65 | -1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 26 | 200 | 881 | 172 | 128 | 38 | 35% | 2.7 | 19.5% | 14.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.08 | 5.65 | -0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Misael Tamarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.48 | 14.8% | 15.4% | 4.2% | — | 6.27 | 15.9% | 1.2% | 200 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2027 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.66 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.38 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 70 | -2.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 85 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 6.73 FIP | 26 | SU | 6.73 | 17.6% | 18.3% | 5.1% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 106 | 81 |
| Robbie Peto R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 80 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 80 |
| Jesús Reyes R 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.80 | 15.9% | 15.7% | 3.7% | .283 | 5.04 | 17.5% | 5.6% | 118 | -0.76 | 3.79 | 554 | 80 |
| Clate Schmidt R 2025 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 160 | 80 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 78 |
| Ricky Salinas R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.81 | 14.3% | 15.1% | 3.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.87 | 274 | 78 |
| Julian Arballo R 2027 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 77 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 77 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 77 |
| Blake Hickman R 2024 · 6.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.54 | 12.9% | 17.8% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 156 | 76 |
| Alex Caldera R 2029 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 76 |
| Levi Stoudt R 2026 · 6.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.56 | 16.4% | 12.2% | 6.0% | .275 | 5.47 | 13.5% | 0.3% | 25 | -1.09 | 4.37 | 395 | 74 |
| Braxton Hyde R 2024 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.67 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 4.0% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 198 | 74 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2025 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 74 |
| Roman Phansalkar R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.61 | 15.8% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .294 | 4.31 | 18.2% | 3.7% | 31 | -1.30 | 4.31 | 164 | 74 |
| Jaycob Deese R 2026 · 5.90 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.90 | 13.4% | 13.9% | 4.0% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 185 | 73 |
| Ethan Bosacker R 2025 · 5.94 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.94 | 15.2% | 14.0% | 4.3% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 272 | 72 |
| Tyler Wehrle R 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 141 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 15.6% | 14.9% | 1.61 | 6.30 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |