Carlos Peña
P
Erie SeaWolves
Age 27
LHP
5'11" / 160 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 121
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
K%16.0%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%8.5%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 15 | 4 | 49 | 203 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 27% | 3.3 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 1.4% | 2.74 | 3.17 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 15 | 4 | 49 | 203 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 27% | 3.3 | 35.0% | 8.4% | 26.6% | 1.0% | 2.74 | 1.78 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 10 | 59 | 247 | 59 | 13 | 5 | 71% | 4.2 | 17.0% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 3.34 | 4.19 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 10 | 59 | 247 | 59 | 13 | 5 | 71% | 4.2 | 23.9% | 5.3% | 18.6% | 2.0% | 3.34 | 2.86 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 16 | 98 | 423 | 120 | 43 | 8 | 62% | 3.8 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 1.6% | 4.22 | 3.61 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 16 | 98 | 423 | 120 | 43 | 8 | 62% | 3.8 | 28.4% | 10.2% | 18.2% | 1.9% | 4.22 | 3.03 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 24 | 21 | 110 | 455 | 107 | 38 | 8 | 88% | 4.6 | 18.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 3.11 | 4.37 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 24 | 21 | 110 | 455 | 107 | 38 | 8 | 88% | 4.6 | 23.5% | 8.4% | 15.2% | 1.8% | 3.11 | 3.14 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 19 | 120 | 506 | 112 | 48 | 7 | 70% | 4.4 | 16.9% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 1.7% | 3.46 | 3.91 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 19 | 120 | 506 | 112 | 48 | 7 | 70% | 4.4 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 1.4% | 3.46 | 3.19 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 17 | 111 | 455 | 96 | 26 | 10 | 61% | 4.0 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 3.73 | 3.76 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 17 | 111 | 455 | 96 | 26 | 10 | 61% | 4.0 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 3.73 | 3.24 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 17 | 13 | 67 | 274 | 69 | 12 | 11 | 76% | 3.9 | 21.1% | 4.2% | 16.9% | 5.6% | 4.16 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | DET | — | — | 134 | 556 | 114 | 33 | 18 | — | — | 20.5% | 6.0% | 14.6% | 3.3% | 4.34 | 4.73 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | DET | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 4.45 | 4.07 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 51 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.54 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 49 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.68 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 46 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 60 | 255 | 42 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.8 | 16.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | DET | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | DET | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 31 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 26 | 157 | 663 | 111 | 56 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.36 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 141 | 71 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 151 | 100 | 614 | 2563 | 480 | 217 | 65 | 66% | 4.1 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 3.57 | 3.99 | +10.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 33 | 200 | 834 | 156 | 71 | 21 | 66% | 4.1 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 3.57 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Peña (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 16.0% | 7.5% | 2.6% | — | 4.69 | 16.8% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.62 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.84 | 3.06 | 217 | 85 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 84 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 84 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 83 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 82 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 82 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 81 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 81 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 80 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 235 | 80 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 78 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 78 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 78 |
| Carlos Teller L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.72 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 0.7% | .329 | 4.99 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 187 | +1.27 | 3.72 | 333 | 75 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.68 | 13.8% | 8.3% | 1.3% | .328 | 4.26 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 129 | +0.58 | 3.24 | 298 | 75 |
| Roy Merritt L 2029 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 74 |
| Nick Greenwood L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 9.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.66 | 11.2% | 8.3% | 112 | -0.39 | 3.66 | 241 | 74 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 73 |
| Duane Below L 2028 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 12.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | .266 | 4.42 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 140 | +0.88 | 3.54 | 189 | 73 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2028 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 68 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 1.13 | 4.66 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |