Carlos Peña
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+1.1
WAR
Age 27
LHP
5'11" / 160 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.1 · 2026
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.1%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%10.8%
IP106
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2026
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 15 | 4 | 49 | 203 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 1.4% | 2.74 | 3.17 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 14 | 10 | 59 | 247 | 59 | 13 | 5 | 17.0% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 3.34 | 4.13 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 26 | 16 | 98 | 423 | 120 | 43 | 8 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 4.22 | 3.86 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 24 | 21 | 110 | 455 | 107 | 38 | 8 | 18.1% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 3.11 | 4.19 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 27 | 19 | 120 | 506 | 112 | 48 | 7 | 16.9% | 10.2% | 1.6% | 3.46 | 3.87 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 28 | 17 | 111 | 455 | 96 | 26 | 10 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 3.73 | 3.81 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.96 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 86 | 37 | 12 | 19.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | DET | — | — | 116 | 486 | 95 | 39 | 12 | 19.4% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 4.08 | 4.00 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 107 | 450 | 87 | 37 | 12 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 104 | 440 | 85 | 37 | 12 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 83 | 36 | 12 | 19.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 79 | 35 | 12 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 75 | 34 | 12 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.61 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 90 | 378 | 70 | 33 | 12 | 18.6% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.71 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 65 | 32 | 11 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.82 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 60 | 31 | 11 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.94 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 75 | 316 | 61 | 28 | 11 | 19.4% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.81 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 37 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 56 | 26 | 10 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 136 | 89 | 557 | 2327 | 431 | 208 | 50 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 2.2% | 3.46 | 3.85 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 32 | 200 | 836 | 155 | 75 | 18 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 2.2% | 3.46 | 3.85 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Peña (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 19.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.41 | 19.3% | 11.0% | 312 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 93 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 91 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 90 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 87 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 86 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 86 |
| Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.5% | .307 | 4.18 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.44 | 3.12 | 217 | 86 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 85 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .311 | 4.07 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 231 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 454 | 85 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 85 |
| John Gast L 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 84 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 84 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 83 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 82 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 82 |
| Kyle Hald L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 124 | 81 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 310 | 81 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 300 | 81 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 80 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 203 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $29M | +$22M | ||