Carlos Peña — OGILVIE

Carlos Peña P Erie SeaWolves

Age 27 LHP 5'11" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%16.0%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	15	4	49	203	71	17	2	27%	3.3	23.8%	10.5%	13.3%	1.4%	2.74	3.17	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	15	4	49	203	71	17	2	27%	3.3	35.0%	8.4%	26.6%	1.0%	2.74	1.78	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	59	247	59	13	5	71%	4.2	17.0%	6.3%	10.7%	2.9%	3.34	4.06	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	59	247	59	13	5	71%	4.2	23.9%	5.3%	18.6%	2.0%	3.34	2.86	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	16	98	423	120	43	8	62%	3.8	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	2.0%	4.22	3.80	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	16	98	423	120	43	8	62%	3.8	28.4%	10.2%	18.2%	1.9%	4.22	3.03	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	21	110	455	107	38	8	88%	4.6	18.1%	9.6%	8.5%	2.5%	3.11	4.16	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	21	110	455	107	38	8	88%	4.6	18.1%	9.6%	8.5%	2.5%	3.11	4.16	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	21	110	455	107	38	8	88%	4.6	23.5%	8.4%	15.2%	1.8%	3.11	3.14	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	120	506	112	48	7	70%	4.4	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	1.6%	3.46	3.85	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	120	506	112	48	7	70%	4.4	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	1.6%	3.46	3.85	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	19	120	506	112	48	7	70%	4.4	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	1.4%	3.46	3.19	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	17	111	455	96	26	10	61%	4.0	17.0%	6.4%	10.6%	2.5%	3.73	3.82	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	17	111	455	96	26	10	61%	4.0	17.0%	6.4%	10.6%	2.5%	3.73	3.82	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	17	111	455	96	26	10	61%	4.0	21.1%	5.7%	15.4%	2.2%	3.73	3.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	27	23	110	457	121	25	16	85%	4.1	21.9%	5.8%	16.1%	4.6%	4.27	4.51	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	27	23	110	457	121	25	16	85%	4.1	21.9%	5.8%	16.1%	4.6%	4.27	4.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	DET	24	20	100	417	113	22	16	83%	4.2	27.1%	5.3%	21.8%	3.8%	4.61	3.59	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	DET	3	3	10	40	8	3	0	100%	3.3	20.0%	7.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.90	2.36	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	7	28	5	2	1	100%	6.7	16.0%	7.5%	8.5%	2.6%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	116	485	126	27	17	—	—	25.9%	5.6%	20.3%	3.4%	4.28	4.51	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	72	304	51	24	8	100%	6.0	16.6%	7.8%	8.8%	2.7%	4.54	4.58	+0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	69	291	49	24	8	100%	6.3	16.9%	8.2%	8.7%	2.9%	4.62	4.69	+0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	65	274	46	23	9	100%	5.9	16.9%	8.5%	8.4%	3.1%	4.75	4.85	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	27	114	19	9	3	100%	6.8	16.6%	7.8%	8.8%	2.6%	4.48	4.52	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	38	160	27	13	4	100%	6.3	16.9%	8.2%	8.7%	2.8%	4.55	4.62	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	44	186	31	16	6	100%	6.3	16.9%	8.5%	8.4%	3.0%	4.68	4.78	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	110	463	78	38	13	100%	6.1	16.8%	8.2%	8.6%	2.8%	4.58	4.28	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	142	69	24	100%	6.0	16.8%	8.2%	8.6%	2.8%	4.58	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		161	110	657	2746	523	232	70	68%	4.1	19.0%	8.5%	10.6%	2.6%	3.63	3.97	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	33	200	836	159	71	21	68%	4.1	19.0%	8.5%	10.6%	2.6%	3.63	3.97	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Peña (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	16.0%	7.5%	2.6%	—	4.70	16.8%	8.6%	206	+0.19	—	—	—
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	84
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	83
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	81
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	81
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	81
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	81
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	80
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	80
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	78
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	78
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	77
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	74
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	74
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	74
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	74
Nick Greenwood L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	27	SP-	4.27	9.3%	4.4%	2.5%	.321	3.71	11.2%	8.3%	112	-0.56	3.71	241	74
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	74
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	74
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	73
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	70	16.6%	8.0%	1.10	4.60
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43