Nathan Burns prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nathan Burns P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 202 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%22.5%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	0	16	64	25	6	0	0%	1.6	39.1%	9.4%	29.7%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	0	16	64	25	6	0	0%	1.6	39.1%	9.4%	29.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.14	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	30	0	27	120	32	15	2	0%	0.9	20.5%	14.4%	6.2%	2.6%	5.33	4.59	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	30	0	27	120	32	15	2	0%	0.9	26.7%	12.5%	14.2%	1.7%	5.33	3.36	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	36	166	45	24	5	0%	1.1	21.2%	16.3%	4.9%	3.7%	5.80	5.42	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	36	166	45	24	5	0%	1.1	21.2%	16.3%	4.9%	3.7%	5.80	5.42	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	36	166	45	24	5	0%	1.1	27.1%	14.5%	12.7%	3.0%	5.80	4.42	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.5%	11.8%	10.7%	3.0%	4.74	4.74	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	LAA	20	0	21	87	20	10	3	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.7%	10.8%	3.1%	4.75	4.78	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	LAA	8	0	8	34	8	4	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.7%	10.8%	3.1%	4.75	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	7	4	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.7%	10.8%	3.1%	4.75	4.40	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	106	26	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.7%	10.8%	3.1%	4.75	4.40	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		73	0	79	350	85	50	9	0%	1.1	24.2%	14.4%	9.9%	2.7%	4.44	4.33	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		185	0	200	886	215	127	23	0%	1.1	24.2%	14.4%	9.9%	2.7%	4.44	4.33	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nathan Burns (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	22.5%	11.8%	3.0%	—	4.78	22.5%	10.8%	21	+0.04	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	87
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	87
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	84
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	84
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	84
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Greg Aquino R 2005 · 5.03 FIP	27	SU	5.03	21.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.357	4.34	22.5%	13.3%	62	-0.69	4.10	154	83
Brandon Gomes R 2011 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	20.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	4.17	22.3%	15.2%	71	+0.43	3.48	190	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	83
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	83
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	83
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	83
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	82
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	82
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	82
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	82
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	82